Changing trends in the global burden of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 and predicted levels in 25 years
Abstract Aims The burden of mental disorders is increasing worldwide, thus, affecting society and healthcare systems. This study investigated the independent influences of age, period and cohort on the global prevalence of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019; compared them by sex; and predicted the f...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge University Press
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2045796023000756/type/journal_article |
| _version_ | 1797634990362591232 |
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| author | Yang Wu Lu Wang Mengjun Tao Huiru Cao Hui Yuan Mingquan Ye Xingui Chen Kai Wang Chunyan Zhu |
| author_facet | Yang Wu Lu Wang Mengjun Tao Huiru Cao Hui Yuan Mingquan Ye Xingui Chen Kai Wang Chunyan Zhu |
| author_sort | Yang Wu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract
Aims
The burden of mental disorders is increasing worldwide, thus, affecting society and healthcare systems. This study investigated the independent influences of age, period and cohort on the global prevalence of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019; compared them by sex; and predicted the future burden of mental disorders in the next 25 years.
Methods
The age-specific and sex-specific incidence of mental disorders worldwide was analysed according to the general analysis strategy used in the Global Burden of Disease Study in 2019. The incidence and mortality trends of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 were evaluated through joinpoint regression analysis. The influences of age, period and cohort on the incidence of mental disorders were evaluated with an age–period–cohort model.
Results
From 1990 to 2019, the sex-specific age-standardized incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate decreased slightly. Joinpoint regression analysis from 1990 to 2019 indicated four turning points in the male DALY rate and five turning points in the female DALY rate. In analysis of age effects, the relative risk (RR) of incidence and the DALY rate in mental disorders in men and women generally showed an inverted U-shaped pattern with increasing age. In analysis of period effects, the incidence of mental disorders increased gradually over time, and showed a sub-peak in 2004 (RR, 1.006 for males; 95% CI, 1.000–1.012; 1.002 for women, 0.997–1.008). Analysis of cohort effects showed that the incidence and DALY rate decreased in successive birth cohorts. The incidence of mental disorders is expected to decline slightly over the next 25 years, but the number of cases is expected to increase.
Conclusions
Although the age-standardized burden of mental disorders has declined in the past 30 years, the number of new cases and deaths of mental disorders worldwide has increased, and will continue to increase in the near future. Therefore, relevant policies should be used to promote the prevention and management of known risk factors and strengthen the understanding of risk profiles and incidence modes of mental disorders, to help guide future research on control and prevention strategies.
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| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T12:16:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c015e1e3ecea4a1aacd66ddae3764bea |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-7960 2045-7979 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T12:16:04Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-c015e1e3ecea4a1aacd66ddae3764bea2023-11-07T09:32:59ZengCambridge University PressEpidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences2045-79602045-79792023-01-013210.1017/S2045796023000756Changing trends in the global burden of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 and predicted levels in 25 yearsYang Wu0https://orcid.org/0009-0002-2524-1655Lu Wang1Mengjun Tao2Huiru Cao3Hui Yuan4Mingquan Ye5Xingui Chen6Kai Wang7Chunyan Zhu8Health Management Center, Yijishan Hospital of Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, 241001, ChinaDepartment of Neurology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Cognition and Neuropsychiatric Disorders, Hefei, China Collaborative Innovation Center for Neuropsychiatric Disorders and Mental Health, Hefei, ChinaHealth Management Center, Yijishan Hospital of Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, 241001, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, Yijishan Hospital of Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, ChinaSchool of Medical Information, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, ChinaDepartment of Neurology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Cognition and Neuropsychiatric Disorders, Hefei, China Collaborative Innovation Center for Neuropsychiatric Disorders and Mental Health, Hefei, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, Yijishan Hospital of Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, China School of Public Health, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, China School of Medical Information, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, China School of Mental Health and Psychological Sciences, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, Yijishan Hospital of Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, China School of Public Health, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, China School of Medical Information, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, China School of Mental Health and Psychological Sciences, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, ChinaAbstract Aims The burden of mental disorders is increasing worldwide, thus, affecting society and healthcare systems. This study investigated the independent influences of age, period and cohort on the global prevalence of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019; compared them by sex; and predicted the future burden of mental disorders in the next 25 years. Methods The age-specific and sex-specific incidence of mental disorders worldwide was analysed according to the general analysis strategy used in the Global Burden of Disease Study in 2019. The incidence and mortality trends of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 were evaluated through joinpoint regression analysis. The influences of age, period and cohort on the incidence of mental disorders were evaluated with an age–period–cohort model. Results From 1990 to 2019, the sex-specific age-standardized incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate decreased slightly. Joinpoint regression analysis from 1990 to 2019 indicated four turning points in the male DALY rate and five turning points in the female DALY rate. In analysis of age effects, the relative risk (RR) of incidence and the DALY rate in mental disorders in men and women generally showed an inverted U-shaped pattern with increasing age. In analysis of period effects, the incidence of mental disorders increased gradually over time, and showed a sub-peak in 2004 (RR, 1.006 for males; 95% CI, 1.000–1.012; 1.002 for women, 0.997–1.008). Analysis of cohort effects showed that the incidence and DALY rate decreased in successive birth cohorts. The incidence of mental disorders is expected to decline slightly over the next 25 years, but the number of cases is expected to increase. Conclusions Although the age-standardized burden of mental disorders has declined in the past 30 years, the number of new cases and deaths of mental disorders worldwide has increased, and will continue to increase in the near future. Therefore, relevant policies should be used to promote the prevention and management of known risk factors and strengthen the understanding of risk profiles and incidence modes of mental disorders, to help guide future research on control and prevention strategies. https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2045796023000756/type/journal_articleepidemiologyglobal burden of diseaseincidencemental disorderprediction |
| spellingShingle | Yang Wu Lu Wang Mengjun Tao Huiru Cao Hui Yuan Mingquan Ye Xingui Chen Kai Wang Chunyan Zhu Changing trends in the global burden of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 and predicted levels in 25 years Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences epidemiology global burden of disease incidence mental disorder prediction |
| title | Changing trends in the global burden of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 and predicted levels in 25 years |
| title_full | Changing trends in the global burden of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 and predicted levels in 25 years |
| title_fullStr | Changing trends in the global burden of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 and predicted levels in 25 years |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changing trends in the global burden of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 and predicted levels in 25 years |
| title_short | Changing trends in the global burden of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 and predicted levels in 25 years |
| title_sort | changing trends in the global burden of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 and predicted levels in 25 years |
| topic | epidemiology global burden of disease incidence mental disorder prediction |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2045796023000756/type/journal_article |
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