Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals
Climate policy needs to account for political and social acceptance. Current national climate policy plans proposed under the Paris Agreement lead to higher emissions until 2030 than cost-effective pathways towards the Agreements’ long-term temperature goals would imply. Therefore, the current plans...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4f1 |
| _version_ | 1797748302479884288 |
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| author | Elmar Kriegler Christoph Bertram Takeshi Kuramochi Michael Jakob Michaja Pehl Miodrag Stevanović Niklas Höhne Gunnar Luderer Jan C Minx Hanna Fekete Jérôme Hilaire Lisa Luna Alexander Popp Jan Christoph Steckel Sebastian Sterl Amsalu Woldie Yalew Jan Philipp Dietrich Ottmar Edenhofer |
| author_facet | Elmar Kriegler Christoph Bertram Takeshi Kuramochi Michael Jakob Michaja Pehl Miodrag Stevanović Niklas Höhne Gunnar Luderer Jan C Minx Hanna Fekete Jérôme Hilaire Lisa Luna Alexander Popp Jan Christoph Steckel Sebastian Sterl Amsalu Woldie Yalew Jan Philipp Dietrich Ottmar Edenhofer |
| author_sort | Elmar Kriegler |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate policy needs to account for political and social acceptance. Current national climate policy plans proposed under the Paris Agreement lead to higher emissions until 2030 than cost-effective pathways towards the Agreements’ long-term temperature goals would imply. Therefore, the current plans would require highly disruptive changes, prohibitive transition speeds, and large long-term deployment of risky mitigation measures for achieving the agreement’s temperature goals after 2030. Since the prospects of introducing the cost-effective policy instrument, a global comprehensive carbon price in the near-term, are negligible, we study how a strengthening of existing plans by a global roll-out of regional policies can ease the implementation challenge of reaching the Paris temperature goals. The regional policies comprise a bundle of regulatory policies in energy supply, transport, buildings, industry, and land use and moderate, regionally differentiated carbon pricing. We find that a global roll-out of these policies could reduce global CO _2 emissions by an additional 10 GtCO _2 eq in 2030 compared to current plans. It would lead to emissions pathways close to the levels of cost-effective likely below 2 °C scenarios until 2030, thereby reducing implementation challenges post 2030. Even though a gradual phase-in of a portfolio of regulatory policies might be less disruptive than immediate cost-effective carbon pricing, it would perform worse in other dimensions. In particular, it leads to higher economic impacts that could become major obstacles in the long-term. Hence, such policy packages should not be viewed as alternatives to carbon pricing, but rather as complements that provide entry points to achieve the Paris climate goals. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:02:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c082c7f984a1478781cf3c3e1243db88 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:02:55Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-c082c7f984a1478781cf3c3e1243db882023-08-09T14:32:12ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-0113707402210.1088/1748-9326/aac4f1Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goalsElmar Kriegler0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3307-2647Christoph Bertram1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0933-4395Takeshi Kuramochi2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3976-0133Michael Jakob3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5005-3563Michaja Pehl4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2349-6515Miodrag Stevanović5Niklas Höhne6https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9246-8759Gunnar Luderer7Jan C Minx8https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2862-0178Hanna Fekete9Jérôme Hilaire10https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9879-6339Lisa Luna11Alexander Popp12Jan Christoph Steckel13Sebastian Sterl14https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1078-5561Amsalu Woldie Yalew15Jan Philipp Dietrich16https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4309-6431Ottmar Edenhofer17Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203 , 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203 , 14412 Potsdam, GermanyNewClimate Institute, Am Hof 20–26 , 50667 Cologne, Germany; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584CB Utrecht , The NetherlandsMercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Torgauer Str. 12–15 , 10829 Berlin, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203 , 14412 Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203 , 14412 Potsdam, GermanyNewClimate Institute, Am Hof 20–26 , 50667 Cologne, Germany; Environmental Systems Analysis group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47 , 6700 AA Wageningen, The NetherlandsPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203 , 14412 Potsdam, GermanyMercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Torgauer Str. 12–15 , 10829 Berlin, Germany; Hertie School of Governance, Friedrichstraße 180 , 10117 Berlin, GermanyNewClimate Institute, Am Hof 20–26 , 50667 Cologne, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203 , 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Torgauer Str. 12–15 , 10829 Berlin, GermanyNewClimate Institute, Am Hof 20–26 , 50667 Cologne, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203 , 14412 Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203 , 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Torgauer Str. 12–15 , 10829 Berlin, Germany; Technische Universität Berlin , Economics of Climate Change Department, Straße des 17. Juni 145, 10623 Berlin, GermanyNewClimate Institute, Am Hof 20–26 , 50667 Cologne, Germany; Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 1050 Brussels , Belgium; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, 3001 Leuven , BelgiumPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203 , 14412 Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203 , 14412 Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203 , 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Torgauer Str. 12–15 , 10829 Berlin, Germany; Technische Universität Berlin , Economics of Climate Change Department, Straße des 17. Juni 145, 10623 Berlin, GermanyClimate policy needs to account for political and social acceptance. Current national climate policy plans proposed under the Paris Agreement lead to higher emissions until 2030 than cost-effective pathways towards the Agreements’ long-term temperature goals would imply. Therefore, the current plans would require highly disruptive changes, prohibitive transition speeds, and large long-term deployment of risky mitigation measures for achieving the agreement’s temperature goals after 2030. Since the prospects of introducing the cost-effective policy instrument, a global comprehensive carbon price in the near-term, are negligible, we study how a strengthening of existing plans by a global roll-out of regional policies can ease the implementation challenge of reaching the Paris temperature goals. The regional policies comprise a bundle of regulatory policies in energy supply, transport, buildings, industry, and land use and moderate, regionally differentiated carbon pricing. We find that a global roll-out of these policies could reduce global CO _2 emissions by an additional 10 GtCO _2 eq in 2030 compared to current plans. It would lead to emissions pathways close to the levels of cost-effective likely below 2 °C scenarios until 2030, thereby reducing implementation challenges post 2030. Even though a gradual phase-in of a portfolio of regulatory policies might be less disruptive than immediate cost-effective carbon pricing, it would perform worse in other dimensions. In particular, it leads to higher economic impacts that could become major obstacles in the long-term. Hence, such policy packages should not be viewed as alternatives to carbon pricing, but rather as complements that provide entry points to achieve the Paris climate goals.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4f1mitigation pathwayintegrated assessmentregulatory policiescarbon pricingpolitical implementabilityParis Agreement |
| spellingShingle | Elmar Kriegler Christoph Bertram Takeshi Kuramochi Michael Jakob Michaja Pehl Miodrag Stevanović Niklas Höhne Gunnar Luderer Jan C Minx Hanna Fekete Jérôme Hilaire Lisa Luna Alexander Popp Jan Christoph Steckel Sebastian Sterl Amsalu Woldie Yalew Jan Philipp Dietrich Ottmar Edenhofer Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals Environmental Research Letters mitigation pathway integrated assessment regulatory policies carbon pricing political implementability Paris Agreement |
| title | Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals |
| title_full | Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals |
| title_fullStr | Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals |
| title_full_unstemmed | Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals |
| title_short | Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals |
| title_sort | short term policies to keep the door open for paris climate goals |
| topic | mitigation pathway integrated assessment regulatory policies carbon pricing political implementability Paris Agreement |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4f1 |
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