Evaluating precipitation prediction skill for the pre- and postrainy seasons in South China in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts
Abstract The rainy season in South China is divided into two phases, the pre- and postrainy seasons, according to the seasonal progression of the East Asian summer monsoon. The precipitation prediction skills for the two rainy seasons are investigated using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) hindcast dat...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SpringerOpen
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Geoscience Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-024-00325-x |
| _version_ | 1827327273607364608 |
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| author | Yanan Liu Qiong Wu Yizhi Zhang Lujun Jiang |
| author_facet | Yanan Liu Qiong Wu Yizhi Zhang Lujun Jiang |
| author_sort | Yanan Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The rainy season in South China is divided into two phases, the pre- and postrainy seasons, according to the seasonal progression of the East Asian summer monsoon. The precipitation prediction skills for the two rainy seasons are investigated using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) hindcast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for 2001–2019. The precipitation prediction skills and biases differ between the two rainy seasons, although some similar characteristics exist regarding circulation patterns and their influence on precipitation. During the two rainy seasons, the prediction ability of circulation at 850 hPa in key areas is relatively high, and the influence of circulation on precipitation is well captured; additionally, the relationship between circulation in key areas at 500 hPa and precipitation is less accurately constrained. Moreover, the precipitation prediction skill in the prerainy season is higher than that in the postrainy season. The main bias is that the 200 hPa westerly winds provide favorable divergence conditions for prerainy season precipitation (preprecipitation), while the postrainy season precipitation (postprecipitation) displays almost no correlation with the circulation in the reanalysis product; however, the simulated circulation at 200 hPa is closely connected to the precipitation in both rainy seasons; therefore, the lower prediction skill in the postrainy season is likely associated with overestimation of the complex physical mechanism of the upper-level circulation in the model. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T14:58:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c0835b85c0674c9d97d6996bb08fa334 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2196-4092 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T14:58:46Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geoscience Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-c0835b85c0674c9d97d6996bb08fa3342024-03-05T19:19:16ZengSpringerOpenGeoscience Letters2196-40922024-03-0111111610.1186/s40562-024-00325-xEvaluating precipitation prediction skill for the pre- and postrainy seasons in South China in ECMWF subseasonal forecastsYanan Liu0Qiong Wu1Yizhi Zhang2Lujun Jiang3Meteorological Sciences Institute, Jiangxi Meteorological BureauClimate Center, Jiangxi Meteorological BureauMeteorological Sciences Institute, Jiangxi Meteorological BureauMeteorological Sciences Institute, Jiangxi Meteorological BureauAbstract The rainy season in South China is divided into two phases, the pre- and postrainy seasons, according to the seasonal progression of the East Asian summer monsoon. The precipitation prediction skills for the two rainy seasons are investigated using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) hindcast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for 2001–2019. The precipitation prediction skills and biases differ between the two rainy seasons, although some similar characteristics exist regarding circulation patterns and their influence on precipitation. During the two rainy seasons, the prediction ability of circulation at 850 hPa in key areas is relatively high, and the influence of circulation on precipitation is well captured; additionally, the relationship between circulation in key areas at 500 hPa and precipitation is less accurately constrained. Moreover, the precipitation prediction skill in the prerainy season is higher than that in the postrainy season. The main bias is that the 200 hPa westerly winds provide favorable divergence conditions for prerainy season precipitation (preprecipitation), while the postrainy season precipitation (postprecipitation) displays almost no correlation with the circulation in the reanalysis product; however, the simulated circulation at 200 hPa is closely connected to the precipitation in both rainy seasons; therefore, the lower prediction skill in the postrainy season is likely associated with overestimation of the complex physical mechanism of the upper-level circulation in the model.https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-024-00325-xClimate predictionPrediction skillPre- and postrainy seasons in South China |
| spellingShingle | Yanan Liu Qiong Wu Yizhi Zhang Lujun Jiang Evaluating precipitation prediction skill for the pre- and postrainy seasons in South China in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts Geoscience Letters Climate prediction Prediction skill Pre- and postrainy seasons in South China |
| title | Evaluating precipitation prediction skill for the pre- and postrainy seasons in South China in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts |
| title_full | Evaluating precipitation prediction skill for the pre- and postrainy seasons in South China in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating precipitation prediction skill for the pre- and postrainy seasons in South China in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating precipitation prediction skill for the pre- and postrainy seasons in South China in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts |
| title_short | Evaluating precipitation prediction skill for the pre- and postrainy seasons in South China in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts |
| title_sort | evaluating precipitation prediction skill for the pre and postrainy seasons in south china in ecmwf subseasonal forecasts |
| topic | Climate prediction Prediction skill Pre- and postrainy seasons in South China |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-024-00325-x |
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