Future Rainfall Erosivity over Iran Based on CMIP5 Climate Models
Soil erosion affects agricultural production, and industrial and socioeconomic development. Changes in rainfall intensity lead to changes in rainfall erosivity (R-factor) energy and consequently changes soil erosion rate. Prediction of soil erosion is therefore important for soil and water conservat...
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| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/23/3861 |
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| author | Behnoush Farokhzadeh Ommolbanin Bazrafshan Vijay P. Singh Sepide Choobeh Mohsen Mohseni Saravi |
| author_facet | Behnoush Farokhzadeh Ommolbanin Bazrafshan Vijay P. Singh Sepide Choobeh Mohsen Mohseni Saravi |
| author_sort | Behnoush Farokhzadeh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Soil erosion affects agricultural production, and industrial and socioeconomic development. Changes in rainfall intensity lead to changes in rainfall erosivity (R-factor) energy and consequently changes soil erosion rate. Prediction of soil erosion is therefore important for soil and water conservation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of changes in climatic parameters (precipitation) on soil erosion rates in the near future (2046–2065) and far future (2081–2100). For this purpose, the CMIP5 series models under two scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 were used to predict precipitation and the R-factor using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. Rainfall data from synoptic stations for 30 years were used to estimate the R- factor in the RUSLE model. Results showed that Iran’s climate in the future would face increasing rainfall, specially in west and decreasing rainfall in the central and northern parts. Therefore, there is an increased possibility of more frequent occurrences of heavy and torrential rains. Results also showed that the transformation of annual rainfall was not related to the spatial change of erosion. In the central and southern parts, the intensity of rainfall would increase. Therefore, erosion would be more in the south and central areas. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T17:28:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c086b847dae3445796a9c889ea9669df |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T17:28:18Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-c086b847dae3445796a9c889ea9669df2023-11-24T12:32:25ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412022-11-011423386110.3390/w14233861Future Rainfall Erosivity over Iran Based on CMIP5 Climate ModelsBehnoush Farokhzadeh0Ommolbanin Bazrafshan1Vijay P. Singh2Sepide Choobeh3Mohsen Mohseni Saravi4Department of Nature Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Malayer University, Malayer 84621-65741, IranDepartment of Natural Resources Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Natural Resource, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas 79161-44453, IranDepartment of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and Zachry, Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-2117, USADepartment of Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, Urmia University, Urmia 57561-51818, IranDepartment of Watershed Science and Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj 31587-77871, IranSoil erosion affects agricultural production, and industrial and socioeconomic development. Changes in rainfall intensity lead to changes in rainfall erosivity (R-factor) energy and consequently changes soil erosion rate. Prediction of soil erosion is therefore important for soil and water conservation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of changes in climatic parameters (precipitation) on soil erosion rates in the near future (2046–2065) and far future (2081–2100). For this purpose, the CMIP5 series models under two scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 were used to predict precipitation and the R-factor using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. Rainfall data from synoptic stations for 30 years were used to estimate the R- factor in the RUSLE model. Results showed that Iran’s climate in the future would face increasing rainfall, specially in west and decreasing rainfall in the central and northern parts. Therefore, there is an increased possibility of more frequent occurrences of heavy and torrential rains. Results also showed that the transformation of annual rainfall was not related to the spatial change of erosion. In the central and southern parts, the intensity of rainfall would increase. Therefore, erosion would be more in the south and central areas.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/23/3861climate changeCMIP5 modelIranprecipitationrainfall erosivityRUSLE model |
| spellingShingle | Behnoush Farokhzadeh Ommolbanin Bazrafshan Vijay P. Singh Sepide Choobeh Mohsen Mohseni Saravi Future Rainfall Erosivity over Iran Based on CMIP5 Climate Models Water climate change CMIP5 model Iran precipitation rainfall erosivity RUSLE model |
| title | Future Rainfall Erosivity over Iran Based on CMIP5 Climate Models |
| title_full | Future Rainfall Erosivity over Iran Based on CMIP5 Climate Models |
| title_fullStr | Future Rainfall Erosivity over Iran Based on CMIP5 Climate Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future Rainfall Erosivity over Iran Based on CMIP5 Climate Models |
| title_short | Future Rainfall Erosivity over Iran Based on CMIP5 Climate Models |
| title_sort | future rainfall erosivity over iran based on cmip5 climate models |
| topic | climate change CMIP5 model Iran precipitation rainfall erosivity RUSLE model |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/23/3861 |
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