RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL BASED ON FUZZY EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Construction projects, due to their size and complexity and their unique and dynamic nature, makes them impossible to model accurately. These attributes reveal the enormous need...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
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Sharif University of Technology
2017-02-01
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| Series: | مهندسی عمران شریف |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://sjce.journals.sharif.edu/article_1062_681fd02cb8056d3b490c20b7bf8b6c5a.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797733852305686528 |
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| author | B. Zahraie A. Roozbahani A. Roozbahani |
| author_facet | B. Zahraie A. Roozbahani A. Roozbahani |
| author_sort | B. Zahraie |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Construction projects, due to their size and complexity and their unique and dynamic nature, makes them impossible to model accurately. These attributes reveal the enormous need in these projects for a proper method of risk assessment. Furthermore, the main uncertainties involved in these projects are resulted because of vagueness (e.g. in cost estimation, time estimation, etc.), so, traditional methods used in the context of risk assessment, which are mainly based on probability theory, are not satisfactory for these projects. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology based on hierarchical fuzzy rule based expert systems to assess the total risk of construction projects and also rank the risks based on their magnitude. For this purpose, a suitable hierarchical risk breakdown structure (HRBS) for construction projects is used to develop a formal frame for qualitative risk assessment. The highest layer of HRBS is the total risk of the project and the lowest layer consists of the factors influencing each risk. Then, for relating the different layers of the HRBS and developing the expert fuzzy system, a method is used to extract the fuzzy rules based on expert opinion. Finally, this fuzzy system is programmed. The efficiency of the proposed model has been analyzed for assessing risks of a construction project in Tehran. Risk assessment in this case study has been undertaken from the client, contractor and consultant points of view, separately, and also after aggregation of their opinions. The results show that the presented methodology can be used to assess risks related to cost, time, quality and safety in construction projects. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T12:35:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c089bae9dfeb4efeb1ff76d1c4dd0d99 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2676-4768 2676-4776 |
| language | fas |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T12:35:37Z |
| publishDate | 2017-02-01 |
| publisher | Sharif University of Technology |
| record_format | Article |
| series | مهندسی عمران شریف |
| spelling | doaj.art-c089bae9dfeb4efeb1ff76d1c4dd0d992023-08-29T04:27:44ZfasSharif University of Technologyمهندسی عمران شریف2676-47682676-47762017-02-0132.24.161701062RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL BASED ON FUZZY EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECT MANAGEMENTB. Zahraie0A. Roozbahani1A. Roozbahani2Dept. of Civil Engineering University of TehranCollege of Aburaihan University of TehranDept. of Civil Engineering University of TehranConstruction projects, due to their size and complexity and their unique and dynamic nature, makes them impossible to model accurately. These attributes reveal the enormous need in these projects for a proper method of risk assessment. Furthermore, the main uncertainties involved in these projects are resulted because of vagueness (e.g. in cost estimation, time estimation, etc.), so, traditional methods used in the context of risk assessment, which are mainly based on probability theory, are not satisfactory for these projects. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology based on hierarchical fuzzy rule based expert systems to assess the total risk of construction projects and also rank the risks based on their magnitude. For this purpose, a suitable hierarchical risk breakdown structure (HRBS) for construction projects is used to develop a formal frame for qualitative risk assessment. The highest layer of HRBS is the total risk of the project and the lowest layer consists of the factors influencing each risk. Then, for relating the different layers of the HRBS and developing the expert fuzzy system, a method is used to extract the fuzzy rules based on expert opinion. Finally, this fuzzy system is programmed. The efficiency of the proposed model has been analyzed for assessing risks of a construction project in Tehran. Risk assessment in this case study has been undertaken from the client, contractor and consultant points of view, separately, and also after aggregation of their opinions. The results show that the presented methodology can be used to assess risks related to cost, time, quality and safety in construction projects.https://sjce.journals.sharif.edu/article_1062_681fd02cb8056d3b490c20b7bf8b6c5a.pdfrisk assessmentconstruction projectshierarchical structurerisk breakdownfuzzy expert systemsfuzzy rules |
| spellingShingle | B. Zahraie A. Roozbahani A. Roozbahani RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL BASED ON FUZZY EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECT MANAGEMENT مهندسی عمران شریف risk assessment construction projects hierarchical structure risk breakdown fuzzy expert systems fuzzy rules |
| title | RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL BASED ON FUZZY EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECT MANAGEMENT |
| title_full | RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL BASED ON FUZZY EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECT MANAGEMENT |
| title_fullStr | RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL BASED ON FUZZY EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECT MANAGEMENT |
| title_full_unstemmed | RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL BASED ON FUZZY EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECT MANAGEMENT |
| title_short | RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL BASED ON FUZZY EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECT MANAGEMENT |
| title_sort | risk assessment model based on fuzzy expert systems for construction project management |
| topic | risk assessment construction projects hierarchical structure risk breakdown fuzzy expert systems fuzzy rules |
| url | https://sjce.journals.sharif.edu/article_1062_681fd02cb8056d3b490c20b7bf8b6c5a.pdf |
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