Variable drivers trigger future change in water yield capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in Africa: An intensification of reduction and unevenness
Predicting the water-related services of terrestrial ecosystems in a changing climate is of great significance for managing rich ecosystems in water-scarce areas. Water yield capacity (WYC), which characterizes water resource availability, was thrown into sharp focus of this study. The spatiotempora...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X24003698 |
| _version_ | 1797213407606210560 |
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| author | Xinya Guo Xingqi Zhang Zhenke Zhang Hong Yang Lei Wan |
| author_facet | Xinya Guo Xingqi Zhang Zhenke Zhang Hong Yang Lei Wan |
| author_sort | Xinya Guo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Predicting the water-related services of terrestrial ecosystems in a changing climate is of great significance for managing rich ecosystems in water-scarce areas. Water yield capacity (WYC), which characterizes water resource availability, was thrown into sharp focus of this study. The spatiotemporal trends of WYC and their dynamics by potential climate shifts were evaluated based on calculative WYC and climate zones for historical period (2001–2018) and future scenarios (both 2050 and 2100 under SSP1-2.6 or SSP5-8.5 scenarios). The multiple factors affecting WYC in the recent past were identified as the basis for explaining the future tendency in WYC. All analyses were conducted from the perspective of holistic continental scale and specific basin scale so as to explore the contrast between various scales. The results showed that the total WYC both in whole Africa and the four major basins (the Congo, the Nile, the Niger and the Zambezi) are projected to decrease in 2050 and 2100 compared with that in 2018, under both SSP1-2.6 or SSP5-8.5 scenarios describing future pathways with low or high greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. The areas producing WYC will be more concentrated, suggesting that the proportion of areas contributing to the top 50% of this function across Africa will drop from current 10.5% to 4.94% in 2100 under SSP5-8.5 scenario. As climate zones are likely to shift in the future, the WYC will reduce most in the areas experiencing the conversion between tropical monsoon and tropical rainforest climates. In addition, WYC was driven by precipitation, temperature, net primary productivity (NPP) and landscape pattern (connectivity and diversity), which had spatial scale effect. The results add evidence for unstable availability of water resources provided by terrestrial ecosystems in a multi-scale manner. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T10:57:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c0e5eb8654644e78b4c5478076f6d58e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T10:57:47Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj.art-c0e5eb8654644e78b4c5478076f6d58e2024-04-12T04:44:55ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2024-03-01160111912Variable drivers trigger future change in water yield capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in Africa: An intensification of reduction and unevennessXinya Guo0Xingqi Zhang1Zhenke Zhang2Hong Yang3Lei Wan4School of Geography and Ocean Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China; Institute of African Studies, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, ChinaSchool of Geography and Ocean Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China; Corresponding author.School of Geography and Ocean Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China; Institute of African Studies, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China; Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, ChinaDepartment of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AB, UKSchool of Geography and Ocean Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, ChinaPredicting the water-related services of terrestrial ecosystems in a changing climate is of great significance for managing rich ecosystems in water-scarce areas. Water yield capacity (WYC), which characterizes water resource availability, was thrown into sharp focus of this study. The spatiotemporal trends of WYC and their dynamics by potential climate shifts were evaluated based on calculative WYC and climate zones for historical period (2001–2018) and future scenarios (both 2050 and 2100 under SSP1-2.6 or SSP5-8.5 scenarios). The multiple factors affecting WYC in the recent past were identified as the basis for explaining the future tendency in WYC. All analyses were conducted from the perspective of holistic continental scale and specific basin scale so as to explore the contrast between various scales. The results showed that the total WYC both in whole Africa and the four major basins (the Congo, the Nile, the Niger and the Zambezi) are projected to decrease in 2050 and 2100 compared with that in 2018, under both SSP1-2.6 or SSP5-8.5 scenarios describing future pathways with low or high greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. The areas producing WYC will be more concentrated, suggesting that the proportion of areas contributing to the top 50% of this function across Africa will drop from current 10.5% to 4.94% in 2100 under SSP5-8.5 scenario. As climate zones are likely to shift in the future, the WYC will reduce most in the areas experiencing the conversion between tropical monsoon and tropical rainforest climates. In addition, WYC was driven by precipitation, temperature, net primary productivity (NPP) and landscape pattern (connectivity and diversity), which had spatial scale effect. The results add evidence for unstable availability of water resources provided by terrestrial ecosystems in a multi-scale manner.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X24003698Water availabilityClimate changePrecipitationLand use and land cover change |
| spellingShingle | Xinya Guo Xingqi Zhang Zhenke Zhang Hong Yang Lei Wan Variable drivers trigger future change in water yield capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in Africa: An intensification of reduction and unevenness Ecological Indicators Water availability Climate change Precipitation Land use and land cover change |
| title | Variable drivers trigger future change in water yield capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in Africa: An intensification of reduction and unevenness |
| title_full | Variable drivers trigger future change in water yield capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in Africa: An intensification of reduction and unevenness |
| title_fullStr | Variable drivers trigger future change in water yield capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in Africa: An intensification of reduction and unevenness |
| title_full_unstemmed | Variable drivers trigger future change in water yield capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in Africa: An intensification of reduction and unevenness |
| title_short | Variable drivers trigger future change in water yield capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in Africa: An intensification of reduction and unevenness |
| title_sort | variable drivers trigger future change in water yield capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in africa an intensification of reduction and unevenness |
| topic | Water availability Climate change Precipitation Land use and land cover change |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X24003698 |
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