Statistical reconstruction of daily temperature and sea level pressure in Europe for the severe winter 1788/89
<p>The winter 1788/89 was one of the coldest winters Europe had witnessed in the past 300 years. Fortunately, for historical climatologists, this extreme event occurred at a time when many stations across Europe, both private and as part of coordinated networks, were making quantitative observ...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2022-12-01
|
| Series: | Climate of the Past |
| Online Access: | https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/18/2545/2022/cp-18-2545-2022.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811213021776707584 |
|---|---|
| author | D. Pappert D. Pappert M. Barriendos Y. Brugnara Y. Brugnara N. Imfeld N. Imfeld S. Jourdain R. Przybylak R. Przybylak C. Rohr C. Rohr S. Brönnimann S. Brönnimann |
| author_facet | D. Pappert D. Pappert M. Barriendos Y. Brugnara Y. Brugnara N. Imfeld N. Imfeld S. Jourdain R. Przybylak R. Przybylak C. Rohr C. Rohr S. Brönnimann S. Brönnimann |
| author_sort | D. Pappert |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The winter 1788/89 was one of the coldest winters Europe had witnessed in the past 300 years. Fortunately, for historical climatologists, this
extreme event occurred at a time when many stations across Europe, both private and as part of coordinated networks, were making quantitative
observations of the weather. This means that several dozen early instrumental series are available to carry out an in-depth study of this severe
cold spell. While there have been attempts to present daily spatial information for this winter, there is more to be done to understand the weather
variability and day-to-day processes that characterised this weather extreme. In this study, we seek to reconstruct daily spatial high-resolution
temperature and sea level pressure fields of the winter 1788/89 in Europe from November through February. The reconstruction is performed with an
analogue resampling method (ARM) that uses both historical instrumental data and a weather type classification. Analogue reconstructions are then
post-processed through an ensemble Kalman fitting (EnKF) technique. Validation experiments show good skill for both reconstructed variables, which
manage to capture the dynamics of the extreme in relation to the large-scale circulation. These results are promising for more such studies to be
undertaken, focusing on different extreme events and other regions in Europe and perhaps even further back in time. The dataset presented in this
study may be of sufficient quality to allow historians to better assess the environmental and social impacts of the harsh weather.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T05:40:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c0ed6b25dd8e45f5a5ce34be884f0862 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1814-9324 1814-9332 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T05:40:18Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate of the Past |
| spelling | doaj.art-c0ed6b25dd8e45f5a5ce34be884f08622022-12-22T03:45:42ZengCopernicus PublicationsClimate of the Past1814-93241814-93322022-12-01182545256510.5194/cp-18-2545-2022Statistical reconstruction of daily temperature and sea level pressure in Europe for the severe winter 1788/89D. Pappert0D. Pappert1M. Barriendos2Y. Brugnara3Y. Brugnara4N. Imfeld5N. Imfeld6S. Jourdain7R. Przybylak8R. Przybylak9C. Rohr10C. Rohr11S. Brönnimann12S. Brönnimann13Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandOeschger Centre for Climate Research, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandDepartment of History and Archaeology, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, SpainInstitute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandOeschger Centre for Climate Research, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandInstitute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandOeschger Centre for Climate Research, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandDirection de la Climatologie et des Service Climatiques, Météo-France, Toulouse, FranceFaculty of Earth Sciences and Spatial Management, Nicolaus Copernicus University, Torun, PolandCentre for Climate Change Research, Nicolaus Copernicus University, Torun, PolandOeschger Centre for Climate Research, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandInstitute of History, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandInstitute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandOeschger Centre for Climate Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland<p>The winter 1788/89 was one of the coldest winters Europe had witnessed in the past 300 years. Fortunately, for historical climatologists, this extreme event occurred at a time when many stations across Europe, both private and as part of coordinated networks, were making quantitative observations of the weather. This means that several dozen early instrumental series are available to carry out an in-depth study of this severe cold spell. While there have been attempts to present daily spatial information for this winter, there is more to be done to understand the weather variability and day-to-day processes that characterised this weather extreme. In this study, we seek to reconstruct daily spatial high-resolution temperature and sea level pressure fields of the winter 1788/89 in Europe from November through February. The reconstruction is performed with an analogue resampling method (ARM) that uses both historical instrumental data and a weather type classification. Analogue reconstructions are then post-processed through an ensemble Kalman fitting (EnKF) technique. Validation experiments show good skill for both reconstructed variables, which manage to capture the dynamics of the extreme in relation to the large-scale circulation. These results are promising for more such studies to be undertaken, focusing on different extreme events and other regions in Europe and perhaps even further back in time. The dataset presented in this study may be of sufficient quality to allow historians to better assess the environmental and social impacts of the harsh weather.</p>https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/18/2545/2022/cp-18-2545-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | D. Pappert D. Pappert M. Barriendos Y. Brugnara Y. Brugnara N. Imfeld N. Imfeld S. Jourdain R. Przybylak R. Przybylak C. Rohr C. Rohr S. Brönnimann S. Brönnimann Statistical reconstruction of daily temperature and sea level pressure in Europe for the severe winter 1788/89 Climate of the Past |
| title | Statistical reconstruction of daily temperature and sea level pressure in Europe for the severe winter 1788/89 |
| title_full | Statistical reconstruction of daily temperature and sea level pressure in Europe for the severe winter 1788/89 |
| title_fullStr | Statistical reconstruction of daily temperature and sea level pressure in Europe for the severe winter 1788/89 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Statistical reconstruction of daily temperature and sea level pressure in Europe for the severe winter 1788/89 |
| title_short | Statistical reconstruction of daily temperature and sea level pressure in Europe for the severe winter 1788/89 |
| title_sort | statistical reconstruction of daily temperature and sea level pressure in europe for the severe winter 1788 89 |
| url | https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/18/2545/2022/cp-18-2545-2022.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dpappert statisticalreconstructionofdailytemperatureandsealevelpressureineuropefortheseverewinter178889 AT dpappert statisticalreconstructionofdailytemperatureandsealevelpressureineuropefortheseverewinter178889 AT mbarriendos statisticalreconstructionofdailytemperatureandsealevelpressureineuropefortheseverewinter178889 AT ybrugnara statisticalreconstructionofdailytemperatureandsealevelpressureineuropefortheseverewinter178889 AT ybrugnara statisticalreconstructionofdailytemperatureandsealevelpressureineuropefortheseverewinter178889 AT nimfeld statisticalreconstructionofdailytemperatureandsealevelpressureineuropefortheseverewinter178889 AT nimfeld statisticalreconstructionofdailytemperatureandsealevelpressureineuropefortheseverewinter178889 AT sjourdain statisticalreconstructionofdailytemperatureandsealevelpressureineuropefortheseverewinter178889 AT rprzybylak statisticalreconstructionofdailytemperatureandsealevelpressureineuropefortheseverewinter178889 AT rprzybylak statisticalreconstructionofdailytemperatureandsealevelpressureineuropefortheseverewinter178889 AT crohr statisticalreconstructionofdailytemperatureandsealevelpressureineuropefortheseverewinter178889 AT crohr statisticalreconstructionofdailytemperatureandsealevelpressureineuropefortheseverewinter178889 AT sbronnimann statisticalreconstructionofdailytemperatureandsealevelpressureineuropefortheseverewinter178889 AT sbronnimann statisticalreconstructionofdailytemperatureandsealevelpressureineuropefortheseverewinter178889 |