Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation
The trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur countries will increase deforestation in the Mercosur countries and Brazil, in particular, if ratified by member countries. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze how trade, land use, and agricultural production will c...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-11-01
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| Series: | Land |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/11/1243 |
| _version_ | 1797509670609354752 |
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| author | Eugenio Arima Paulo Barreto Farzad Taheripour Angel Aguiar |
| author_facet | Eugenio Arima Paulo Barreto Farzad Taheripour Angel Aguiar |
| author_sort | Eugenio Arima |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur countries will increase deforestation in the Mercosur countries and Brazil, in particular, if ratified by member countries. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze how trade, land use, and agricultural production will change as a result of the agreement. We then use a statistical model to spatially allocate the predicted deforestation within the Brazilian Amazon. The models estimate that the agreement will cause additional deforestation in Brazil ranging from 56 to 173 thousand ha to accommodate increases in cropland area, depending on the level of governance, use of double-cropping techniques, and trade elasticity parameters. Most additional deforestation in Amazonia would be clustered near current deforestation hotspot areas. Some hotspots threaten the integrity of Indigenous lands and conservation units. Although a low deforestation scenario with gains in welfare is theoretically possible when high governance and multiple-cropping systems are in place, political challenges remain and cast doubt on Brazil’s ability to rein on illegal deforestation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T05:21:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c0fbb24cdc5e493fa93e9d4d95e95a83 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-445X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T05:21:02Z |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Land |
| spelling | doaj.art-c0fbb24cdc5e493fa93e9d4d95e95a832023-11-23T00:02:19ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2021-11-011011124310.3390/land10111243Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and DeforestationEugenio Arima0Paulo Barreto1Farzad Taheripour2Angel Aguiar3Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Texas at Austin, 305 E. 23rd St., A3100, Austin, TX 78712, USAAmazon Institute of People and the Environment (IMAZON), Ed. Zion Business, Tv. Dom Romualdo de Seixas, 1698, Belém 66055-200, BrazilDepartment of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, 403 West State St., West Lafayette, IN 47907-5056, USADepartment of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, 403 West State St., West Lafayette, IN 47907-5056, USAThe trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur countries will increase deforestation in the Mercosur countries and Brazil, in particular, if ratified by member countries. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze how trade, land use, and agricultural production will change as a result of the agreement. We then use a statistical model to spatially allocate the predicted deforestation within the Brazilian Amazon. The models estimate that the agreement will cause additional deforestation in Brazil ranging from 56 to 173 thousand ha to accommodate increases in cropland area, depending on the level of governance, use of double-cropping techniques, and trade elasticity parameters. Most additional deforestation in Amazonia would be clustered near current deforestation hotspot areas. Some hotspots threaten the integrity of Indigenous lands and conservation units. Although a low deforestation scenario with gains in welfare is theoretically possible when high governance and multiple-cropping systems are in place, political challenges remain and cast doubt on Brazil’s ability to rein on illegal deforestation.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/11/1243commoditiesland changeinternational tradesupply chain |
| spellingShingle | Eugenio Arima Paulo Barreto Farzad Taheripour Angel Aguiar Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation Land commodities land change international trade supply chain |
| title | Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation |
| title_full | Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation |
| title_fullStr | Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation |
| title_short | Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation |
| title_sort | dynamic amazonia the eu mercosur trade agreement and deforestation |
| topic | commodities land change international trade supply chain |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/11/1243 |
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