Human Heat stress risk prediction in the Brazilian semiarid Region based on the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature
Abstract: Objective: the aim of this study is to map thermal stress risks for human health at the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB) in the Semiarid region, for climatic scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Methods: The heat stress conditions were defined by the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) indicator and b...
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| Format: | Article |
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Academia Brasileira de Ciências
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| Series: | Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências |
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| Online Access: | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652019000500808&lng=en&tlng=en |
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| author | BEATRIZ FÁTIMA A. DE OLIVEIRA ISMAEL HENRIQUE SILVEIRA RENATO C. FEITOSA MARCO AURÉLIO P. HORTA WASHINGTON L. JUNGER SANDRA HACON |
| author_facet | BEATRIZ FÁTIMA A. DE OLIVEIRA ISMAEL HENRIQUE SILVEIRA RENATO C. FEITOSA MARCO AURÉLIO P. HORTA WASHINGTON L. JUNGER SANDRA HACON |
| author_sort | BEATRIZ FÁTIMA A. DE OLIVEIRA |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract: Objective: the aim of this study is to map thermal stress risks for human health at the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB) in the Semiarid region, for climatic scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Methods: The heat stress conditions were defined by the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) indicator and by the average number of annual days in which the WBGT values exceeded the 90th percentile of the reference period. The WBGT was estimated for the climate scenarios RCP 4.5 (intermediate) and 8.5 (pessimistic) for the period 2011-2090 comparing to the period of reference (1961-2005). Results: The projections show that for the pessimistic scenario practically all municipalities of the SFRB region can reach values of WBGT that indicate a high risk for heat stress in the period 2071-2099. For this same scenario and period, the municipalities of the Lower and Under-average regions may present values of WBGT above the 90th percentile of the reference period in more than 90% of the days/year. Conclusions: These results show that, if the emission of greenhouse gases continues in the present proportions, some municipalities of the SFRB region may present a high risk for heat stress affecting the work capacity and the practice of physical exercises. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T19:20:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c10f4c9c9d6c4a6bb4766ff204c0f0fa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1678-2690 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T19:20:15Z |
| publisher | Academia Brasileira de Ciências |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências |
| spelling | doaj.art-c10f4c9c9d6c4a6bb4766ff204c0f0fa2022-12-22T00:53:32ZengAcademia Brasileira de CiênciasAnais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências1678-269091310.1590/0001-3765201920180748S0001-37652019000500808Human Heat stress risk prediction in the Brazilian semiarid Region based on the Wet-Bulb Globe TemperatureBEATRIZ FÁTIMA A. DE OLIVEIRAISMAEL HENRIQUE SILVEIRARENATO C. FEITOSAMARCO AURÉLIO P. HORTAWASHINGTON L. JUNGERSANDRA HACONAbstract: Objective: the aim of this study is to map thermal stress risks for human health at the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB) in the Semiarid region, for climatic scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Methods: The heat stress conditions were defined by the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) indicator and by the average number of annual days in which the WBGT values exceeded the 90th percentile of the reference period. The WBGT was estimated for the climate scenarios RCP 4.5 (intermediate) and 8.5 (pessimistic) for the period 2011-2090 comparing to the period of reference (1961-2005). Results: The projections show that for the pessimistic scenario practically all municipalities of the SFRB region can reach values of WBGT that indicate a high risk for heat stress in the period 2071-2099. For this same scenario and period, the municipalities of the Lower and Under-average regions may present values of WBGT above the 90th percentile of the reference period in more than 90% of the days/year. Conclusions: These results show that, if the emission of greenhouse gases continues in the present proportions, some municipalities of the SFRB region may present a high risk for heat stress affecting the work capacity and the practice of physical exercises.http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652019000500808&lng=en&tlng=enClimate changeheat stresshealth impactsWet Bulb Globe Temperature |
| spellingShingle | BEATRIZ FÁTIMA A. DE OLIVEIRA ISMAEL HENRIQUE SILVEIRA RENATO C. FEITOSA MARCO AURÉLIO P. HORTA WASHINGTON L. JUNGER SANDRA HACON Human Heat stress risk prediction in the Brazilian semiarid Region based on the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências Climate change heat stress health impacts Wet Bulb Globe Temperature |
| title | Human Heat stress risk prediction in the Brazilian semiarid Region based on the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature |
| title_full | Human Heat stress risk prediction in the Brazilian semiarid Region based on the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature |
| title_fullStr | Human Heat stress risk prediction in the Brazilian semiarid Region based on the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature |
| title_full_unstemmed | Human Heat stress risk prediction in the Brazilian semiarid Region based on the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature |
| title_short | Human Heat stress risk prediction in the Brazilian semiarid Region based on the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature |
| title_sort | human heat stress risk prediction in the brazilian semiarid region based on the wet bulb globe temperature |
| topic | Climate change heat stress health impacts Wet Bulb Globe Temperature |
| url | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652019000500808&lng=en&tlng=en |
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