Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (<i>Tremarctos ornatus</i>) in Amazonas, Northeast Peru
The spectacled, or Andean, bear (<i>Tremarctos ornatus</i>) is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN due to climate change and human-induced habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need for the conservation of spectacled bear at real time. However, the lack of knowledge about the distri...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2020-10-01
|
| Series: | Animals |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/10/10/1816 |
| _version_ | 1827704862067916800 |
|---|---|
| author | Gerson Meza Mori Elgar Barboza Castillo Cristóbal Torres Guzmán Dany A. Cotrina Sánchez Betty K. Guzman Valqui Manuel Oliva Subhajit Bandopadhyay Rolando Salas López Nilton B. Rojas Briceño |
| author_facet | Gerson Meza Mori Elgar Barboza Castillo Cristóbal Torres Guzmán Dany A. Cotrina Sánchez Betty K. Guzman Valqui Manuel Oliva Subhajit Bandopadhyay Rolando Salas López Nilton B. Rojas Briceño |
| author_sort | Gerson Meza Mori |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The spectacled, or Andean, bear (<i>Tremarctos ornatus</i>) is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN due to climate change and human-induced habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need for the conservation of spectacled bear at real time. However, the lack of knowledge about the distribution of this species is considered as one of the major limitations for decision-making and sustainable conservation. In this study, 92 geo-referenced records of the spectacled bear, 12 environmental variables and the MaxEnt entropy modelling have been used for predictive modelling for the current and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution of the spectacled bear in Amazonas, northeastern Peru. The areas of “high”, “moderate” and “low” potential habitat under current conditions cover 1.99% (836.22 km<sup>2</sup>), 14.46% (6081.88 km<sup>2</sup>) and 20.73% (8718.98 km<sup>2</sup>) of the Amazon, respectively. “High” potential habitat will increase under all climate change scenarios, while “moderate” and “low” potential habitat, as well as total habitat, will decrease over the time. The “moderate”, “low” and total potential habitat are distributed mainly in Yunga montane forest, combined grasslands/rangelands and secondary vegetation and Yunga altimontane (rain) forest, while “high” potential habitat is also concentrated in the Jalca. The overall outcome showed that the most of the important habitats of the spectacled bear are not part of the protected natural areas of Amazonas, under current as well as under future scenarios. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T15:50:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c144c18a5a984f3c82bb9a8baffe9cb3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-2615 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T15:50:07Z |
| publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Animals |
| spelling | doaj.art-c144c18a5a984f3c82bb9a8baffe9cb32023-11-20T16:10:45ZengMDPI AGAnimals2076-26152020-10-011010181610.3390/ani10101816Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (<i>Tremarctos ornatus</i>) in Amazonas, Northeast PeruGerson Meza Mori0Elgar Barboza Castillo1Cristóbal Torres Guzmán2Dany A. Cotrina Sánchez3Betty K. Guzman Valqui4Manuel Oliva5Subhajit Bandopadhyay6Rolando Salas López7Nilton B. Rojas Briceño8Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas (UNTRM), Chachapoyas 01001, PeruInstituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas (UNTRM), Chachapoyas 01001, PeruInstituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas (UNTRM), Chachapoyas 01001, PeruInstituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas (UNTRM), Chachapoyas 01001, PeruInstituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas (UNTRM), Chachapoyas 01001, PeruInstituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas (UNTRM), Chachapoyas 01001, PeruDepartment of Ecology and Environmental Protection, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Piatkowska 94, 60-649 Poznan, PolandInstituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas (UNTRM), Chachapoyas 01001, PeruInstituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas (UNTRM), Chachapoyas 01001, PeruThe spectacled, or Andean, bear (<i>Tremarctos ornatus</i>) is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN due to climate change and human-induced habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need for the conservation of spectacled bear at real time. However, the lack of knowledge about the distribution of this species is considered as one of the major limitations for decision-making and sustainable conservation. In this study, 92 geo-referenced records of the spectacled bear, 12 environmental variables and the MaxEnt entropy modelling have been used for predictive modelling for the current and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution of the spectacled bear in Amazonas, northeastern Peru. The areas of “high”, “moderate” and “low” potential habitat under current conditions cover 1.99% (836.22 km<sup>2</sup>), 14.46% (6081.88 km<sup>2</sup>) and 20.73% (8718.98 km<sup>2</sup>) of the Amazon, respectively. “High” potential habitat will increase under all climate change scenarios, while “moderate” and “low” potential habitat, as well as total habitat, will decrease over the time. The “moderate”, “low” and total potential habitat are distributed mainly in Yunga montane forest, combined grasslands/rangelands and secondary vegetation and Yunga altimontane (rain) forest, while “high” potential habitat is also concentrated in the Jalca. The overall outcome showed that the most of the important habitats of the spectacled bear are not part of the protected natural areas of Amazonas, under current as well as under future scenarios.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/10/10/1816andean bearbiogeographyconservationdeforestationecological niche model (ENM)MaxEnt |
| spellingShingle | Gerson Meza Mori Elgar Barboza Castillo Cristóbal Torres Guzmán Dany A. Cotrina Sánchez Betty K. Guzman Valqui Manuel Oliva Subhajit Bandopadhyay Rolando Salas López Nilton B. Rojas Briceño Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (<i>Tremarctos ornatus</i>) in Amazonas, Northeast Peru Animals andean bear biogeography conservation deforestation ecological niche model (ENM) MaxEnt |
| title | Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (<i>Tremarctos ornatus</i>) in Amazonas, Northeast Peru |
| title_full | Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (<i>Tremarctos ornatus</i>) in Amazonas, Northeast Peru |
| title_fullStr | Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (<i>Tremarctos ornatus</i>) in Amazonas, Northeast Peru |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (<i>Tremarctos ornatus</i>) in Amazonas, Northeast Peru |
| title_short | Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (<i>Tremarctos ornatus</i>) in Amazonas, Northeast Peru |
| title_sort | predictive modelling of current and future potential distribution of the spectacled bear i tremarctos ornatus i in amazonas northeast peru |
| topic | andean bear biogeography conservation deforestation ecological niche model (ENM) MaxEnt |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/10/10/1816 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gersonmezamori predictivemodellingofcurrentandfuturepotentialdistributionofthespectacledbearitremarctosornatusiinamazonasnortheastperu AT elgarbarbozacastillo predictivemodellingofcurrentandfuturepotentialdistributionofthespectacledbearitremarctosornatusiinamazonasnortheastperu AT cristobaltorresguzman predictivemodellingofcurrentandfuturepotentialdistributionofthespectacledbearitremarctosornatusiinamazonasnortheastperu AT danyacotrinasanchez predictivemodellingofcurrentandfuturepotentialdistributionofthespectacledbearitremarctosornatusiinamazonasnortheastperu AT bettykguzmanvalqui predictivemodellingofcurrentandfuturepotentialdistributionofthespectacledbearitremarctosornatusiinamazonasnortheastperu AT manueloliva predictivemodellingofcurrentandfuturepotentialdistributionofthespectacledbearitremarctosornatusiinamazonasnortheastperu AT subhajitbandopadhyay predictivemodellingofcurrentandfuturepotentialdistributionofthespectacledbearitremarctosornatusiinamazonasnortheastperu AT rolandosalaslopez predictivemodellingofcurrentandfuturepotentialdistributionofthespectacledbearitremarctosornatusiinamazonasnortheastperu AT niltonbrojasbriceno predictivemodellingofcurrentandfuturepotentialdistributionofthespectacledbearitremarctosornatusiinamazonasnortheastperu |