Simulating the Diffusion of Residential Rooftop Photovoltaic, Battery Storage Systems and Electric Cars in Italy. An Exploratory Study Combining a Discrete Choice and Agent-Based Modelling Approach
Rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems could significantly contribute to renewable energy production and reduce domestic energy costs. In Italy, as in other countries, the current incentives generate a modest annual increase after the generous fiscal incentives that kick-started the PV market in th...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2023-01-01
|
| Series: | Energies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/1/557 |
| _version_ | 1797625849346785280 |
|---|---|
| author | Romeo Danielis Mariangela Scorrano Alessandro Massi Pavan Nicola Blasuttigh |
| author_facet | Romeo Danielis Mariangela Scorrano Alessandro Massi Pavan Nicola Blasuttigh |
| author_sort | Romeo Danielis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems could significantly contribute to renewable energy production and reduce domestic energy costs. In Italy, as in other countries, the current incentives generate a modest annual increase after the generous fiscal incentives that kick-started the PV market in the 2008–2013 period. Several factors are, however, at play that can speed up the installation process, such as the improvements in PV technology at declining prices, the increased availability of battery-storage (BS) systems, the growing use of electric appliances, the uptake of electric cars, and the increased environmental awareness. We integrate two research methodologies, discrete choice modeling and agent-based modeling, to understand how these factors will influence households’ decisions regarding PV and BS installations and how agents interact in their socioeconomic environment. We predict that in Italy, given the preference structure of homeowners, the continuing decline in costs, and the social interaction, 40–45% of homeowners will have PV or PV and BS installed by 2030, thanks to the existing investment tax credit policy. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T10:02:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c159845fce584018831c03d39533f926 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T10:02:17Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-c159845fce584018831c03d39533f9262023-11-16T15:20:48ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732023-01-0116155710.3390/en16010557Simulating the Diffusion of Residential Rooftop Photovoltaic, Battery Storage Systems and Electric Cars in Italy. An Exploratory Study Combining a Discrete Choice and Agent-Based Modelling ApproachRomeo Danielis0Mariangela Scorrano1Alessandro Massi Pavan2Nicola Blasuttigh3Department of Economics, Business, Mathematics and Statistics, University of Trieste, 34127 Trieste, ItalyDepartment of Economics, Business, Mathematics and Statistics, University of Trieste, 34127 Trieste, ItalyCentro Interdipartimentale per l’Energia, l’Ambiente e i Trasporti “Giacomo Ciamician”, University of Trieste, 34127 Trieste, ItalyCentro Interdipartimentale per l’Energia, l’Ambiente e i Trasporti “Giacomo Ciamician”, University of Trieste, 34127 Trieste, ItalyRooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems could significantly contribute to renewable energy production and reduce domestic energy costs. In Italy, as in other countries, the current incentives generate a modest annual increase after the generous fiscal incentives that kick-started the PV market in the 2008–2013 period. Several factors are, however, at play that can speed up the installation process, such as the improvements in PV technology at declining prices, the increased availability of battery-storage (BS) systems, the growing use of electric appliances, the uptake of electric cars, and the increased environmental awareness. We integrate two research methodologies, discrete choice modeling and agent-based modeling, to understand how these factors will influence households’ decisions regarding PV and BS installations and how agents interact in their socioeconomic environment. We predict that in Italy, given the preference structure of homeowners, the continuing decline in costs, and the social interaction, 40–45% of homeowners will have PV or PV and BS installed by 2030, thanks to the existing investment tax credit policy.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/1/557rooftop solar photovoltaicbattery-storage systemselectric carsdiscrete choice modelingagent-based modeling |
| spellingShingle | Romeo Danielis Mariangela Scorrano Alessandro Massi Pavan Nicola Blasuttigh Simulating the Diffusion of Residential Rooftop Photovoltaic, Battery Storage Systems and Electric Cars in Italy. An Exploratory Study Combining a Discrete Choice and Agent-Based Modelling Approach Energies rooftop solar photovoltaic battery-storage systems electric cars discrete choice modeling agent-based modeling |
| title | Simulating the Diffusion of Residential Rooftop Photovoltaic, Battery Storage Systems and Electric Cars in Italy. An Exploratory Study Combining a Discrete Choice and Agent-Based Modelling Approach |
| title_full | Simulating the Diffusion of Residential Rooftop Photovoltaic, Battery Storage Systems and Electric Cars in Italy. An Exploratory Study Combining a Discrete Choice and Agent-Based Modelling Approach |
| title_fullStr | Simulating the Diffusion of Residential Rooftop Photovoltaic, Battery Storage Systems and Electric Cars in Italy. An Exploratory Study Combining a Discrete Choice and Agent-Based Modelling Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulating the Diffusion of Residential Rooftop Photovoltaic, Battery Storage Systems and Electric Cars in Italy. An Exploratory Study Combining a Discrete Choice and Agent-Based Modelling Approach |
| title_short | Simulating the Diffusion of Residential Rooftop Photovoltaic, Battery Storage Systems and Electric Cars in Italy. An Exploratory Study Combining a Discrete Choice and Agent-Based Modelling Approach |
| title_sort | simulating the diffusion of residential rooftop photovoltaic battery storage systems and electric cars in italy an exploratory study combining a discrete choice and agent based modelling approach |
| topic | rooftop solar photovoltaic battery-storage systems electric cars discrete choice modeling agent-based modeling |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/1/557 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT romeodanielis simulatingthediffusionofresidentialrooftopphotovoltaicbatterystoragesystemsandelectriccarsinitalyanexploratorystudycombiningadiscretechoiceandagentbasedmodellingapproach AT mariangelascorrano simulatingthediffusionofresidentialrooftopphotovoltaicbatterystoragesystemsandelectriccarsinitalyanexploratorystudycombiningadiscretechoiceandagentbasedmodellingapproach AT alessandromassipavan simulatingthediffusionofresidentialrooftopphotovoltaicbatterystoragesystemsandelectriccarsinitalyanexploratorystudycombiningadiscretechoiceandagentbasedmodellingapproach AT nicolablasuttigh simulatingthediffusionofresidentialrooftopphotovoltaicbatterystoragesystemsandelectriccarsinitalyanexploratorystudycombiningadiscretechoiceandagentbasedmodellingapproach |