Estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) for the novel coronavirus disease in Sri Lanka

Abstract Background The basic reproduction number (R0) is the number of cases directly caused by an infected individual throughout his infectious period. R0 is used to determine the ability of a disease to spread within a given population. The reproduction number (R) represents the transmissibility...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Samath Dharmaratne, Supun Sudaraka, Ishanya Abeyagunawardena, Kasun Manchanayake, Mahen Kothalawala, Wasantha Gunathunga
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMC 2020-10-01
Series:Virology Journal
Subjects:
Online Access:http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12985-020-01411-0
_version_ 1819210275766665216
author Samath Dharmaratne
Supun Sudaraka
Ishanya Abeyagunawardena
Kasun Manchanayake
Mahen Kothalawala
Wasantha Gunathunga
author_facet Samath Dharmaratne
Supun Sudaraka
Ishanya Abeyagunawardena
Kasun Manchanayake
Mahen Kothalawala
Wasantha Gunathunga
author_sort Samath Dharmaratne
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Background The basic reproduction number (R0) is the number of cases directly caused by an infected individual throughout his infectious period. R0 is used to determine the ability of a disease to spread within a given population. The reproduction number (R) represents the transmissibility of a disease. Objectives We aimed to calculate the R0 of Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in Sri Lanka and to describe the variation of R, with its implications to the prevention and control of the disease. Methods Data was obtained from daily situation reports of the Epidemiology Unit, Sri Lanka and a compartmental model was used to calculate the R0 using estimated model parameters. This value was corroborated by using two more methods, the exponential growth rate method and maximum likelihood method to obtain a better estimate for R0. The variation of R was illustrated using a Bayesian statistical inference-based method. Results The R0 calculated by the first model was 1.02 [confidence interval (CI) of 0.75–1.29] with a root mean squared error of 7.72. The exponential growth rate method and the maximum likelihood estimation method yielded an R0 of 0.93 (CI of 0.77–1.10) and a R0 of 1.23 (CI of 0.94–1.57) respectively. The variation of R ranged from 0.69 to 2.20. Conclusion The estimated R0 for COVID-19 in Sri Lanka, calculated by three different methods, falls between 0.93 and 1.23, and the transmissibility R has reduced, indicating that measures implemented have achieved a good control of disease.
first_indexed 2024-12-23T06:08:36Z
format Article
id doaj.art-c1a0a6c271df4583b39083538aac2615
institution Directory Open Access Journal
issn 1743-422X
language English
last_indexed 2024-12-23T06:08:36Z
publishDate 2020-10-01
publisher BMC
record_format Article
series Virology Journal
spelling doaj.art-c1a0a6c271df4583b39083538aac26152022-12-21T17:57:31ZengBMCVirology Journal1743-422X2020-10-011711710.1186/s12985-020-01411-0Estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) for the novel coronavirus disease in Sri LankaSamath Dharmaratne0Supun Sudaraka1Ishanya Abeyagunawardena2Kasun Manchanayake3Mahen Kothalawala4Wasantha Gunathunga5Faculty of Medicine, University of PeradeniyaFaculty of Medicine, University of PeradeniyaFaculty of Medicine, University of PeradeniyaFaculty of Engineering, University of RuhunaNational HospitalDepartment of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of ColomboAbstract Background The basic reproduction number (R0) is the number of cases directly caused by an infected individual throughout his infectious period. R0 is used to determine the ability of a disease to spread within a given population. The reproduction number (R) represents the transmissibility of a disease. Objectives We aimed to calculate the R0 of Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in Sri Lanka and to describe the variation of R, with its implications to the prevention and control of the disease. Methods Data was obtained from daily situation reports of the Epidemiology Unit, Sri Lanka and a compartmental model was used to calculate the R0 using estimated model parameters. This value was corroborated by using two more methods, the exponential growth rate method and maximum likelihood method to obtain a better estimate for R0. The variation of R was illustrated using a Bayesian statistical inference-based method. Results The R0 calculated by the first model was 1.02 [confidence interval (CI) of 0.75–1.29] with a root mean squared error of 7.72. The exponential growth rate method and the maximum likelihood estimation method yielded an R0 of 0.93 (CI of 0.77–1.10) and a R0 of 1.23 (CI of 0.94–1.57) respectively. The variation of R ranged from 0.69 to 2.20. Conclusion The estimated R0 for COVID-19 in Sri Lanka, calculated by three different methods, falls between 0.93 and 1.23, and the transmissibility R has reduced, indicating that measures implemented have achieved a good control of disease.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12985-020-01411-0Basic reproduction numberR0Coronavirus
spellingShingle Samath Dharmaratne
Supun Sudaraka
Ishanya Abeyagunawardena
Kasun Manchanayake
Mahen Kothalawala
Wasantha Gunathunga
Estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) for the novel coronavirus disease in Sri Lanka
Virology Journal
Basic reproduction number
R0
Coronavirus
title Estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) for the novel coronavirus disease in Sri Lanka
title_full Estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) for the novel coronavirus disease in Sri Lanka
title_fullStr Estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) for the novel coronavirus disease in Sri Lanka
title_full_unstemmed Estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) for the novel coronavirus disease in Sri Lanka
title_short Estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) for the novel coronavirus disease in Sri Lanka
title_sort estimation of the basic reproduction number r0 for the novel coronavirus disease in sri lanka
topic Basic reproduction number
R0
Coronavirus
url http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12985-020-01411-0
work_keys_str_mv AT samathdharmaratne estimationofthebasicreproductionnumberr0forthenovelcoronavirusdiseaseinsrilanka
AT supunsudaraka estimationofthebasicreproductionnumberr0forthenovelcoronavirusdiseaseinsrilanka
AT ishanyaabeyagunawardena estimationofthebasicreproductionnumberr0forthenovelcoronavirusdiseaseinsrilanka
AT kasunmanchanayake estimationofthebasicreproductionnumberr0forthenovelcoronavirusdiseaseinsrilanka
AT mahenkothalawala estimationofthebasicreproductionnumberr0forthenovelcoronavirusdiseaseinsrilanka
AT wasanthagunathunga estimationofthebasicreproductionnumberr0forthenovelcoronavirusdiseaseinsrilanka