Estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) for the novel coronavirus disease in Sri Lanka
Abstract Background The basic reproduction number (R0) is the number of cases directly caused by an infected individual throughout his infectious period. R0 is used to determine the ability of a disease to spread within a given population. The reproduction number (R) represents the transmissibility...
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Format: | Article |
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BMC
2020-10-01
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Series: | Virology Journal |
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Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12985-020-01411-0 |
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author | Samath Dharmaratne Supun Sudaraka Ishanya Abeyagunawardena Kasun Manchanayake Mahen Kothalawala Wasantha Gunathunga |
author_facet | Samath Dharmaratne Supun Sudaraka Ishanya Abeyagunawardena Kasun Manchanayake Mahen Kothalawala Wasantha Gunathunga |
author_sort | Samath Dharmaratne |
collection | DOAJ |
description | Abstract Background The basic reproduction number (R0) is the number of cases directly caused by an infected individual throughout his infectious period. R0 is used to determine the ability of a disease to spread within a given population. The reproduction number (R) represents the transmissibility of a disease. Objectives We aimed to calculate the R0 of Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in Sri Lanka and to describe the variation of R, with its implications to the prevention and control of the disease. Methods Data was obtained from daily situation reports of the Epidemiology Unit, Sri Lanka and a compartmental model was used to calculate the R0 using estimated model parameters. This value was corroborated by using two more methods, the exponential growth rate method and maximum likelihood method to obtain a better estimate for R0. The variation of R was illustrated using a Bayesian statistical inference-based method. Results The R0 calculated by the first model was 1.02 [confidence interval (CI) of 0.75–1.29] with a root mean squared error of 7.72. The exponential growth rate method and the maximum likelihood estimation method yielded an R0 of 0.93 (CI of 0.77–1.10) and a R0 of 1.23 (CI of 0.94–1.57) respectively. The variation of R ranged from 0.69 to 2.20. Conclusion The estimated R0 for COVID-19 in Sri Lanka, calculated by three different methods, falls between 0.93 and 1.23, and the transmissibility R has reduced, indicating that measures implemented have achieved a good control of disease. |
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format | Article |
id | doaj.art-c1a0a6c271df4583b39083538aac2615 |
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issn | 1743-422X |
language | English |
last_indexed | 2024-12-23T06:08:36Z |
publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
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series | Virology Journal |
spelling | doaj.art-c1a0a6c271df4583b39083538aac26152022-12-21T17:57:31ZengBMCVirology Journal1743-422X2020-10-011711710.1186/s12985-020-01411-0Estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) for the novel coronavirus disease in Sri LankaSamath Dharmaratne0Supun Sudaraka1Ishanya Abeyagunawardena2Kasun Manchanayake3Mahen Kothalawala4Wasantha Gunathunga5Faculty of Medicine, University of PeradeniyaFaculty of Medicine, University of PeradeniyaFaculty of Medicine, University of PeradeniyaFaculty of Engineering, University of RuhunaNational HospitalDepartment of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of ColomboAbstract Background The basic reproduction number (R0) is the number of cases directly caused by an infected individual throughout his infectious period. R0 is used to determine the ability of a disease to spread within a given population. The reproduction number (R) represents the transmissibility of a disease. Objectives We aimed to calculate the R0 of Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in Sri Lanka and to describe the variation of R, with its implications to the prevention and control of the disease. Methods Data was obtained from daily situation reports of the Epidemiology Unit, Sri Lanka and a compartmental model was used to calculate the R0 using estimated model parameters. This value was corroborated by using two more methods, the exponential growth rate method and maximum likelihood method to obtain a better estimate for R0. The variation of R was illustrated using a Bayesian statistical inference-based method. Results The R0 calculated by the first model was 1.02 [confidence interval (CI) of 0.75–1.29] with a root mean squared error of 7.72. The exponential growth rate method and the maximum likelihood estimation method yielded an R0 of 0.93 (CI of 0.77–1.10) and a R0 of 1.23 (CI of 0.94–1.57) respectively. The variation of R ranged from 0.69 to 2.20. Conclusion The estimated R0 for COVID-19 in Sri Lanka, calculated by three different methods, falls between 0.93 and 1.23, and the transmissibility R has reduced, indicating that measures implemented have achieved a good control of disease.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12985-020-01411-0Basic reproduction numberR0Coronavirus |
spellingShingle | Samath Dharmaratne Supun Sudaraka Ishanya Abeyagunawardena Kasun Manchanayake Mahen Kothalawala Wasantha Gunathunga Estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) for the novel coronavirus disease in Sri Lanka Virology Journal Basic reproduction number R0 Coronavirus |
title | Estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) for the novel coronavirus disease in Sri Lanka |
title_full | Estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) for the novel coronavirus disease in Sri Lanka |
title_fullStr | Estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) for the novel coronavirus disease in Sri Lanka |
title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) for the novel coronavirus disease in Sri Lanka |
title_short | Estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) for the novel coronavirus disease in Sri Lanka |
title_sort | estimation of the basic reproduction number r0 for the novel coronavirus disease in sri lanka |
topic | Basic reproduction number R0 Coronavirus |
url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12985-020-01411-0 |
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