Land use and land cover spatiotemporal dynamic pattern and predicting changes using integrated CA-Markov model
Analyzing the process of land use and cover changes during long periods of time and predicting the future changes is highly important and useful for the land use managers. In this study, the land use maps in the Ardabil plain in north-west part of Iran for four periods (1989, 1998, 2009 and 2013) ar...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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GJESM Publisher
2016-05-01
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| Series: | Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management |
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| Online Access: | http://www.gjesm.net/article_19162_510c01fba4c5fc43a65622dbce61cf33.pdf |
| _version_ | 1819327142412943360 |
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| author | A. Azizi B. Malakmohamadi H. Jafari |
| author_facet | A. Azizi B. Malakmohamadi H. Jafari |
| author_sort | A. Azizi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Analyzing the process of land use and cover changes during long periods of time and predicting the future changes is highly important and useful for the land use managers. In this study, the land use maps in the Ardabil plain in north-west part of Iran for four periods (1989, 1998, 2009 and 2013) are extracted and analyzed through remote sensing technique, using the land-sat satellite images. Then, the future land use changes are simulated for 2030 using integrated CA-Markov model according to the scenario of continuing current management process. The results show that in the period between 1989 and 2009, i.e. since two-thirds of the plain was declared restricted till all of it was declared thus, the study area has experienced a total of about 58645.08 ha changes. After the whole plain was restricted (since 2009 till 2014), the changes have been estimated to be 22466.88 ha. The prediction also indicates that the changes will equal 8908.83 ha by 2030. Agricultural lands and human-built environment constitute the majority of changes and are increasing continuously. The obtained Kappa values for the model accuracy assessment (higher than 0.8) indicated the model's capability to predict future Land use/cover changes in the study area. Thus, analyzing Land use and cover changes trends from past to near future using CA-Markov model can play a significant role in land use policy making, planning, and managing of the restricted plains especially in the proposed study area. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-24T13:06:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c1c69e47c34f436189cae92d9545dda8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2383-3572 2383-3866 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-24T13:06:08Z |
| publishDate | 2016-05-01 |
| publisher | GJESM Publisher |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-c1c69e47c34f436189cae92d9545dda82022-12-21T16:54:00ZengGJESM PublisherGlobal Journal of Environmental Science and Management2383-35722383-38662016-05-012322323410.7508/gjesm.2016.03.00219162Land use and land cover spatiotemporal dynamic pattern and predicting changes using integrated CA-Markov modelA. Azizi0B. Malakmohamadi1H. Jafari2Department of Environmental Planning and Management, Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, IranDepartment of Environmental Planning and Management, Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, IranDepartment of Environmental Planning and Management, Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, IranAnalyzing the process of land use and cover changes during long periods of time and predicting the future changes is highly important and useful for the land use managers. In this study, the land use maps in the Ardabil plain in north-west part of Iran for four periods (1989, 1998, 2009 and 2013) are extracted and analyzed through remote sensing technique, using the land-sat satellite images. Then, the future land use changes are simulated for 2030 using integrated CA-Markov model according to the scenario of continuing current management process. The results show that in the period between 1989 and 2009, i.e. since two-thirds of the plain was declared restricted till all of it was declared thus, the study area has experienced a total of about 58645.08 ha changes. After the whole plain was restricted (since 2009 till 2014), the changes have been estimated to be 22466.88 ha. The prediction also indicates that the changes will equal 8908.83 ha by 2030. Agricultural lands and human-built environment constitute the majority of changes and are increasing continuously. The obtained Kappa values for the model accuracy assessment (higher than 0.8) indicated the model's capability to predict future Land use/cover changes in the study area. Thus, analyzing Land use and cover changes trends from past to near future using CA-Markov model can play a significant role in land use policy making, planning, and managing of the restricted plains especially in the proposed study area.http://www.gjesm.net/article_19162_510c01fba4c5fc43a65622dbce61cf33.pdfArdabil plainCA-MarkovLand use changeRemote sensingRestricted plain |
| spellingShingle | A. Azizi B. Malakmohamadi H. Jafari Land use and land cover spatiotemporal dynamic pattern and predicting changes using integrated CA-Markov model Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management Ardabil plain CA-Markov Land use change Remote sensing Restricted plain |
| title | Land use and land cover spatiotemporal dynamic pattern and predicting changes using integrated CA-Markov model |
| title_full | Land use and land cover spatiotemporal dynamic pattern and predicting changes using integrated CA-Markov model |
| title_fullStr | Land use and land cover spatiotemporal dynamic pattern and predicting changes using integrated CA-Markov model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Land use and land cover spatiotemporal dynamic pattern and predicting changes using integrated CA-Markov model |
| title_short | Land use and land cover spatiotemporal dynamic pattern and predicting changes using integrated CA-Markov model |
| title_sort | land use and land cover spatiotemporal dynamic pattern and predicting changes using integrated ca markov model |
| topic | Ardabil plain CA-Markov Land use change Remote sensing Restricted plain |
| url | http://www.gjesm.net/article_19162_510c01fba4c5fc43a65622dbce61cf33.pdf |
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