Transient response of the global mean warming rate and its spatial variation
The Earth has warmed over the past century. The warming rate (amount of warming over a given period) varies in time and space. Observations show a recent increase in global mean warming rate, which is initially maintained in model projections, but which diverges substantially in future depending on...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2017-12-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094716300494 |
| _version_ | 1818570919611727872 |
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| author | James S. Risbey Michael R. Grose Didier P. Monselesan Terence J. O'Kane Stephan Lewandowsky |
| author_facet | James S. Risbey Michael R. Grose Didier P. Monselesan Terence J. O'Kane Stephan Lewandowsky |
| author_sort | James S. Risbey |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Earth has warmed over the past century. The warming rate (amount of warming over a given period) varies in time and space. Observations show a recent increase in global mean warming rate, which is initially maintained in model projections, but which diverges substantially in future depending on the emissions scenario followed. Scenarios that stabilize forcing lead to much lower warming rates, as the rate depends on the change in forcing, not the amount. Warming rates vary spatially across the planet, but most areas show a shift toward higher warming rates in recent decades. The areal distribution of warming rates is also changing shape to include a longer tail in recent decades. Some areas of the planet are already experiencing extreme warming rates of about 1 °C/decade. The fat tail in areal distribution of warming rates is pronounced in model runs when the forcing and global mean warming rate is increasing, and indicates a climate state more prone to regime transitions. The area-proportion of the Earth displaying warming/cooling trends is shown to be directly related to the global mean warming rate, especially for trends of length 15 years and longer. Since the global mean warming rate depends on the forcing rate, the proportion of warming/cooling trend areas in future also depends critically on the choice of future forcing scenario. Keywords: Climate variability, Climate projection, Transient response, Extreme warming |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T13:48:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c1dcf76e5245441fa29634686c160ea4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2212-0947 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T13:48:29Z |
| publishDate | 2017-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| spelling | doaj.art-c1dcf76e5245441fa29634686c160ea42022-12-21T22:59:14ZengElsevierWeather and Climate Extremes2212-09472017-12-01185564Transient response of the global mean warming rate and its spatial variationJames S. Risbey0Michael R. Grose1Didier P. Monselesan2Terence J. O'Kane3Stephan Lewandowsky4CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia; Corresponding author. CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Box 1538, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, AustraliaCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, AustraliaCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, AustraliaCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia; University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; University of Western Australia, Perth, AustraliaThe Earth has warmed over the past century. The warming rate (amount of warming over a given period) varies in time and space. Observations show a recent increase in global mean warming rate, which is initially maintained in model projections, but which diverges substantially in future depending on the emissions scenario followed. Scenarios that stabilize forcing lead to much lower warming rates, as the rate depends on the change in forcing, not the amount. Warming rates vary spatially across the planet, but most areas show a shift toward higher warming rates in recent decades. The areal distribution of warming rates is also changing shape to include a longer tail in recent decades. Some areas of the planet are already experiencing extreme warming rates of about 1 °C/decade. The fat tail in areal distribution of warming rates is pronounced in model runs when the forcing and global mean warming rate is increasing, and indicates a climate state more prone to regime transitions. The area-proportion of the Earth displaying warming/cooling trends is shown to be directly related to the global mean warming rate, especially for trends of length 15 years and longer. Since the global mean warming rate depends on the forcing rate, the proportion of warming/cooling trend areas in future also depends critically on the choice of future forcing scenario. Keywords: Climate variability, Climate projection, Transient response, Extreme warminghttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094716300494 |
| spellingShingle | James S. Risbey Michael R. Grose Didier P. Monselesan Terence J. O'Kane Stephan Lewandowsky Transient response of the global mean warming rate and its spatial variation Weather and Climate Extremes |
| title | Transient response of the global mean warming rate and its spatial variation |
| title_full | Transient response of the global mean warming rate and its spatial variation |
| title_fullStr | Transient response of the global mean warming rate and its spatial variation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Transient response of the global mean warming rate and its spatial variation |
| title_short | Transient response of the global mean warming rate and its spatial variation |
| title_sort | transient response of the global mean warming rate and its spatial variation |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094716300494 |
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