Residential Mortgage Loans Delinquencies Analysis and Risk Drivers Assessment
Residential mortgage loans play an important role in improving living conditions in developed countries. In Latvia, however, residential mortgage volumes have declined throughout the post-crisis year’s and were at the end of 2018 12% below the end 2008 level, while the house price index ca. 25% belo...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Ital Publication
2020-04-01
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| Series: | Emerging Science Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ijournalse.org/index.php/ESJ/article/view/226 |
| _version_ | 1818311911609991168 |
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| author | Aivars Spilbergs |
| author_facet | Aivars Spilbergs |
| author_sort | Aivars Spilbergs |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Residential mortgage loans play an important role in improving living conditions in developed countries. In Latvia, however, residential mortgage volumes have declined throughout the post-crisis year’s and were at the end of 2018 12% below the end 2008 level, while the house price index ca. 25% below pre-crisis level. The main reasons for this are banks credit losses, which resulted in a revision of credit granting standards and a deteriorating in their availability. On the other hand, households have experienced increased uncertainty, both as a result of financial difficulties, experienced during the crisis years and political instability in the post-crisis years. It is therefore essential to identify the true risk drivers and to analyse them. Based on existing researches in other countries, the author has identified several dozen macro-economic indicators, such as the unemployment rate, wage growth, housing price index, etc. and micro factors such as the age of the borrower, total debt to income, loan-to-value, etc., have developed univariate and multivariate econometric models and have examined their statistical stability. Consequently, through a consistent application, it is possible to take sound credit decisions, both in banks and by households, and to contribute to the sustainable development of the housing market. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T08:09:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c209856b729144568e1319824d87e2f5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2610-9182 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T08:09:29Z |
| publishDate | 2020-04-01 |
| publisher | Ital Publication |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Emerging Science Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-c209856b729144568e1319824d87e2f52022-12-21T23:54:15ZengItal PublicationEmerging Science Journal2610-91822020-04-014210411210.28991/esj-2020-01214120Residential Mortgage Loans Delinquencies Analysis and Risk Drivers AssessmentAivars Spilbergs0Economics and Finance Department, BA School of Business and Finance, Riga,Residential mortgage loans play an important role in improving living conditions in developed countries. In Latvia, however, residential mortgage volumes have declined throughout the post-crisis year’s and were at the end of 2018 12% below the end 2008 level, while the house price index ca. 25% below pre-crisis level. The main reasons for this are banks credit losses, which resulted in a revision of credit granting standards and a deteriorating in their availability. On the other hand, households have experienced increased uncertainty, both as a result of financial difficulties, experienced during the crisis years and political instability in the post-crisis years. It is therefore essential to identify the true risk drivers and to analyse them. Based on existing researches in other countries, the author has identified several dozen macro-economic indicators, such as the unemployment rate, wage growth, housing price index, etc. and micro factors such as the age of the borrower, total debt to income, loan-to-value, etc., have developed univariate and multivariate econometric models and have examined their statistical stability. Consequently, through a consistent application, it is possible to take sound credit decisions, both in banks and by households, and to contribute to the sustainable development of the housing market.https://ijournalse.org/index.php/ESJ/article/view/226econometric modelshousing loansrisk drivers macro level risk driversmicro level risk drivers. |
| spellingShingle | Aivars Spilbergs Residential Mortgage Loans Delinquencies Analysis and Risk Drivers Assessment Emerging Science Journal econometric models housing loans risk drivers macro level risk drivers micro level risk drivers. |
| title | Residential Mortgage Loans Delinquencies Analysis and Risk Drivers Assessment |
| title_full | Residential Mortgage Loans Delinquencies Analysis and Risk Drivers Assessment |
| title_fullStr | Residential Mortgage Loans Delinquencies Analysis and Risk Drivers Assessment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Residential Mortgage Loans Delinquencies Analysis and Risk Drivers Assessment |
| title_short | Residential Mortgage Loans Delinquencies Analysis and Risk Drivers Assessment |
| title_sort | residential mortgage loans delinquencies analysis and risk drivers assessment |
| topic | econometric models housing loans risk drivers macro level risk drivers micro level risk drivers. |
| url | https://ijournalse.org/index.php/ESJ/article/view/226 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT aivarsspilbergs residentialmortgageloansdelinquenciesanalysisandriskdriversassessment |