Uncertainty quantification in the techno-economic analysis of emission reduction technologies: a tutorial case study on CO2 mineralization
The pathways toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 should be designed based on solid scientific evidence. Ex ante system analysis tools, such as techno-economic assessments (TEAs), are key instruments to guide decision-makers. As ex ante TEAs of CO2 mitigation technologies embody a high l...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Energy Research |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2023.1182969/full |
| _version_ | 1797819909262016512 |
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| author | Till Strunge Till Strunge Phil Renforth Mijndert Van der Spek |
| author_facet | Till Strunge Till Strunge Phil Renforth Mijndert Van der Spek |
| author_sort | Till Strunge |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The pathways toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 should be designed based on solid scientific evidence. Ex ante system analysis tools, such as techno-economic assessments (TEAs), are key instruments to guide decision-makers. As ex ante TEAs of CO2 mitigation technologies embody a high level of uncertainty, the informed use of uncertainty analysis becomes crucial for meaningful interpretation and communication of TEA outputs. To foster enhanced appreciation and the use of uncertainty analysis, we compare multiple uncertainty analysis methods for ex ante TEAs, using a case study on CO2 mineralization in the cement industry. We show that local sensitivity analysis tools such as one-way analysis, which are most often used by TEA practitioners, may not suffice for deriving reliable conclusions and provide guidance on how to apply global sensitivity analysis methods, such as variance-based indicators for TEAs in this field. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T09:30:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c21529187c2c467e8457a5276619c346 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-598X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T09:30:32Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Energy Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-c21529187c2c467e8457a5276619c3462023-05-26T04:17:41ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Energy Research2296-598X2023-05-011110.3389/fenrg.2023.11829691182969Uncertainty quantification in the techno-economic analysis of emission reduction technologies: a tutorial case study on CO2 mineralizationTill Strunge0Till Strunge1Phil Renforth2Mijndert Van der Spek3Research Institute for Sustainability—Helmholtz Centre Potsdam (Formerly Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, IASS), Potsdam, GermanyResearch Centre for Carbon Solutions, School of Engineering and Physical Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, United KingdomResearch Centre for Carbon Solutions, School of Engineering and Physical Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, United KingdomResearch Centre for Carbon Solutions, School of Engineering and Physical Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, United KingdomThe pathways toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 should be designed based on solid scientific evidence. Ex ante system analysis tools, such as techno-economic assessments (TEAs), are key instruments to guide decision-makers. As ex ante TEAs of CO2 mitigation technologies embody a high level of uncertainty, the informed use of uncertainty analysis becomes crucial for meaningful interpretation and communication of TEA outputs. To foster enhanced appreciation and the use of uncertainty analysis, we compare multiple uncertainty analysis methods for ex ante TEAs, using a case study on CO2 mineralization in the cement industry. We show that local sensitivity analysis tools such as one-way analysis, which are most often used by TEA practitioners, may not suffice for deriving reliable conclusions and provide guidance on how to apply global sensitivity analysis methods, such as variance-based indicators for TEAs in this field.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2023.1182969/fulluncertainty analysistechno-economic assessmentcarbon capture and utilization orstorageCO2 mineralization |
| spellingShingle | Till Strunge Till Strunge Phil Renforth Mijndert Van der Spek Uncertainty quantification in the techno-economic analysis of emission reduction technologies: a tutorial case study on CO2 mineralization Frontiers in Energy Research uncertainty analysis techno-economic assessment carbon capture and utilization or storage CO2 mineralization |
| title | Uncertainty quantification in the techno-economic analysis of emission reduction technologies: a tutorial case study on CO2 mineralization |
| title_full | Uncertainty quantification in the techno-economic analysis of emission reduction technologies: a tutorial case study on CO2 mineralization |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainty quantification in the techno-economic analysis of emission reduction technologies: a tutorial case study on CO2 mineralization |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainty quantification in the techno-economic analysis of emission reduction technologies: a tutorial case study on CO2 mineralization |
| title_short | Uncertainty quantification in the techno-economic analysis of emission reduction technologies: a tutorial case study on CO2 mineralization |
| title_sort | uncertainty quantification in the techno economic analysis of emission reduction technologies a tutorial case study on co2 mineralization |
| topic | uncertainty analysis techno-economic assessment carbon capture and utilization or storage CO2 mineralization |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2023.1182969/full |
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