Analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014–2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030
AbstractAccording to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, chronic kidney disease (CKD) was prevalent in 697.5 million individuals worldwide in 2017. By 2040, it is anticipated that CKD will rank as the fifth most common cause of death. This study aims to examine the epidemiology of CKD in Kazak...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Renal Failure |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/0886022X.2024.2326312 |
| _version_ | 1797262598192758784 |
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| author | Gulnur Zhakhina Kamilla Mussina Sauran Yerdessov Arnur Gusmanov Yesbolat Sakko Valdemir Kim Dmitriy Syssoyev Meruyert Madikenova Ainur Assan Zhanat Kuanshaliyeva Duman Turebekov Kuanysh Yergaliyev Bolat Bekishev Abduzhappar Gaipov |
| author_facet | Gulnur Zhakhina Kamilla Mussina Sauran Yerdessov Arnur Gusmanov Yesbolat Sakko Valdemir Kim Dmitriy Syssoyev Meruyert Madikenova Ainur Assan Zhanat Kuanshaliyeva Duman Turebekov Kuanysh Yergaliyev Bolat Bekishev Abduzhappar Gaipov |
| author_sort | Gulnur Zhakhina |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | AbstractAccording to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, chronic kidney disease (CKD) was prevalent in 697.5 million individuals worldwide in 2017. By 2040, it is anticipated that CKD will rank as the fifth most common cause of death. This study aims to examine the epidemiology of CKD in Kazakhstan and to project future trends in CKD prevalence and mortality by 2030. The retrospective analysis was performed on a database acquired from the Unified National Electronic Health System for 703,122 patients with CKD between 2014 and 2020. During the observation period, 444,404 women and 258,718 men were registered with CKD, 459,900 (66%) were Kazakhs and 47% were older than 50. The incidence rate notably decreased: 6365 people per million population (PMP) in 2014 and 4040 people PMP in 2020. The prevalence changed from 10,346 to 38,287 people PMP, and the mortality rate increased dramatically from 279 PMP to 916 PMP. Kazakhstan’s central regions, Turkestan and Kyzylorda were identified as the most burdensome ones. The ARIMA model projected 1,504,694 expected prevalent cases in 2030. The predicted mortality climbed from 17,068 cases in 2020 to 37,305 deaths in 2030. By 2030, the prevalence and mortality of CKD will significantly increase, according to the predicted model. A thorough action plan with effective risk factor management, enhanced screening among risk populations, and prompt treatment are required to lessen the burden of disease in Kazakhstan. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T23:59:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c2297ac5a47442b1898818fa56d8d1c7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0886-022X 1525-6049 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T23:59:39Z |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Renal Failure |
| spelling | doaj.art-c2297ac5a47442b1898818fa56d8d1c72024-03-14T08:05:42ZengTaylor & Francis GroupRenal Failure0886-022X1525-60492024-12-0146110.1080/0886022X.2024.2326312Analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014–2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030Gulnur Zhakhina0Kamilla Mussina1Sauran Yerdessov2Arnur Gusmanov3Yesbolat Sakko4Valdemir Kim5Dmitriy Syssoyev6Meruyert Madikenova7Ainur Assan8Zhanat Kuanshaliyeva9Duman Turebekov10Kuanysh Yergaliyev11Bolat Bekishev12Abduzhappar Gaipov13Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Nazarbayev University, Astana, KazakhstanDepartment of Medicine, School of Medicine, Nazarbayev University, Astana, KazakhstanDepartment of Medicine, School of Medicine, Nazarbayev University, Astana, KazakhstanDepartment of Medicine, School of Medicine, Nazarbayev University, Astana, KazakhstanDepartment of Medicine, School of Medicine, Nazarbayev University, Astana, KazakhstanDepartment of Medicine, School of Medicine, Nazarbayev University, Astana, KazakhstanDepartment of Medicine, School of Medicine, Nazarbayev University, Astana, KazakhstanDepartment of Medicine, School of Medicine, Nazarbayev University, Astana, KazakhstanDepartment of Medicine, Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkistan, KazakhstanClinical Academic Department of Internal Medicine, CF “University Medical Center”, Astana, KazakhstanDepartment of Internal Medicine and Nephrology, Astana Medical University, Astana, KazakhstanDepartment of Medicine, School of Medicine, Nazarbayev University, Astana, KazakhstanDepartment of Extracorporeal Hemocorrection, National Research Cardiac Surgery Center, Astana, KazakhstanDepartment of Medicine, School of Medicine, Nazarbayev University, Astana, KazakhstanAbstractAccording to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, chronic kidney disease (CKD) was prevalent in 697.5 million individuals worldwide in 2017. By 2040, it is anticipated that CKD will rank as the fifth most common cause of death. This study aims to examine the epidemiology of CKD in Kazakhstan and to project future trends in CKD prevalence and mortality by 2030. The retrospective analysis was performed on a database acquired from the Unified National Electronic Health System for 703,122 patients with CKD between 2014 and 2020. During the observation period, 444,404 women and 258,718 men were registered with CKD, 459,900 (66%) were Kazakhs and 47% were older than 50. The incidence rate notably decreased: 6365 people per million population (PMP) in 2014 and 4040 people PMP in 2020. The prevalence changed from 10,346 to 38,287 people PMP, and the mortality rate increased dramatically from 279 PMP to 916 PMP. Kazakhstan’s central regions, Turkestan and Kyzylorda were identified as the most burdensome ones. The ARIMA model projected 1,504,694 expected prevalent cases in 2030. The predicted mortality climbed from 17,068 cases in 2020 to 37,305 deaths in 2030. By 2030, the prevalence and mortality of CKD will significantly increase, according to the predicted model. A thorough action plan with effective risk factor management, enhanced screening among risk populations, and prompt treatment are required to lessen the burden of disease in Kazakhstan.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/0886022X.2024.2326312Chronic kidney diseaserisk factorsurvival analysisprevalence forecastingmortality forecastingnationwide administrative data |
| spellingShingle | Gulnur Zhakhina Kamilla Mussina Sauran Yerdessov Arnur Gusmanov Yesbolat Sakko Valdemir Kim Dmitriy Syssoyev Meruyert Madikenova Ainur Assan Zhanat Kuanshaliyeva Duman Turebekov Kuanysh Yergaliyev Bolat Bekishev Abduzhappar Gaipov Analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014–2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030 Renal Failure Chronic kidney disease risk factor survival analysis prevalence forecasting mortality forecasting nationwide administrative data |
| title | Analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014–2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030 |
| title_full | Analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014–2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030 |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014–2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014–2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030 |
| title_short | Analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014–2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030 |
| title_sort | analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014 2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030 |
| topic | Chronic kidney disease risk factor survival analysis prevalence forecasting mortality forecasting nationwide administrative data |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/0886022X.2024.2326312 |
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