Flood Frequency Analyses over Different Basin Scales in the Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia
The frequency and intensity of flood quantiles and its attendant damage in agricultural establishments have generated a lot of issues in Ethiopia. Moreover, precise estimates of flood quantiles are needed for efficient design of hydraulic structures; however, quantification of these quantiles in dat...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-07-01
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| Series: | Hydrology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/7/3/44 |
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| author | Getachew Tegegne Assefa M. Melesse Dereje H. Asfaw Abeyou W. Worqlul |
| author_facet | Getachew Tegegne Assefa M. Melesse Dereje H. Asfaw Abeyou W. Worqlul |
| author_sort | Getachew Tegegne |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The frequency and intensity of flood quantiles and its attendant damage in agricultural establishments have generated a lot of issues in Ethiopia. Moreover, precise estimates of flood quantiles are needed for efficient design of hydraulic structures; however, quantification of these quantiles in data-scarce regions has been a continuing challenge in hydrologic design. Flood frequency analysis is thus essential to reduce possible flood damage by investigating the most suitable flood prediction model. The annual maximum discharges from six representative stations in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin were fitted to the commonly used nine statistical distributions. This study also assessed the performance evolution of the probability distributions with varying spatial scales, such that three different spatial scales of small-, medium-, and large-scale basins in the Blue Nile River Basin were considered. The performances of the candidate probability distributions were assessed using three goodness-of-fit test statistics, root mean square error, and graphical interpretation approaches to investigate the robust probability distribution for flood frequency analysis over different basin spatial scales. Based on the overall analyses, the generalized extreme value distribution was proven to be a robust model for flood frequency analysis in the study region. The generalized extreme value distribution significantly improved the performance of the flood prediction over different spatial scales. The generalized extreme value flood prediction performance improvement measured in root mean square error varied between 5.84 and 67.91% over other commonly used probability distribution models. Thus, the flood frequency analysis using the generalized extreme value distribution could be essential for the efficient planning and design of hydraulic structures in the Blue Nile River Basin. Furthermore, this study suggests that, in the future, significant efforts should be put to conduct similar flood frequency analyses over the other major river basins of Ethiopia. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:22:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c234888c1ce24da79a1d22dbfac67a69 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2306-5338 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:22:08Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology |
| spelling | doaj.art-c234888c1ce24da79a1d22dbfac67a692023-11-20T07:17:43ZengMDPI AGHydrology2306-53382020-07-01734410.3390/hydrology7030044Flood Frequency Analyses over Different Basin Scales in the Blue Nile River Basin, EthiopiaGetachew Tegegne0Assefa M. Melesse1Dereje H. Asfaw2Abeyou W. Worqlul3Department of Earth and Environment, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, USADepartment of Earth and Environment, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, USASchool of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Addis Ababa institute of Technology, Addis Ababa University, King George VI Street, P.O. Box 385 Addis Ababa, EthiopiaBlackland Research Center, Texas A&M AgriLife Research, Temple, TX 76502, USAThe frequency and intensity of flood quantiles and its attendant damage in agricultural establishments have generated a lot of issues in Ethiopia. Moreover, precise estimates of flood quantiles are needed for efficient design of hydraulic structures; however, quantification of these quantiles in data-scarce regions has been a continuing challenge in hydrologic design. Flood frequency analysis is thus essential to reduce possible flood damage by investigating the most suitable flood prediction model. The annual maximum discharges from six representative stations in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin were fitted to the commonly used nine statistical distributions. This study also assessed the performance evolution of the probability distributions with varying spatial scales, such that three different spatial scales of small-, medium-, and large-scale basins in the Blue Nile River Basin were considered. The performances of the candidate probability distributions were assessed using three goodness-of-fit test statistics, root mean square error, and graphical interpretation approaches to investigate the robust probability distribution for flood frequency analysis over different basin spatial scales. Based on the overall analyses, the generalized extreme value distribution was proven to be a robust model for flood frequency analysis in the study region. The generalized extreme value distribution significantly improved the performance of the flood prediction over different spatial scales. The generalized extreme value flood prediction performance improvement measured in root mean square error varied between 5.84 and 67.91% over other commonly used probability distribution models. Thus, the flood frequency analysis using the generalized extreme value distribution could be essential for the efficient planning and design of hydraulic structures in the Blue Nile River Basin. Furthermore, this study suggests that, in the future, significant efforts should be put to conduct similar flood frequency analyses over the other major river basins of Ethiopia.https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/7/3/44flood frequency analysisbasin spatial scaleprobability distributionBlue Nile River Basin |
| spellingShingle | Getachew Tegegne Assefa M. Melesse Dereje H. Asfaw Abeyou W. Worqlul Flood Frequency Analyses over Different Basin Scales in the Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia Hydrology flood frequency analysis basin spatial scale probability distribution Blue Nile River Basin |
| title | Flood Frequency Analyses over Different Basin Scales in the Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_full | Flood Frequency Analyses over Different Basin Scales in the Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Flood Frequency Analyses over Different Basin Scales in the Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Flood Frequency Analyses over Different Basin Scales in the Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_short | Flood Frequency Analyses over Different Basin Scales in the Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_sort | flood frequency analyses over different basin scales in the blue nile river basin ethiopia |
| topic | flood frequency analysis basin spatial scale probability distribution Blue Nile River Basin |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/7/3/44 |
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