Predicted as observed? How to identify empirically adequate theoretical constructs
The identification of an empirically adequate theoretical construct requires determining whether a theoretically predicted effect is sufficiently similar to an observed effect. To this end, we propose a simple similarity measure, describe its application in different research designs, and use comput...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-12-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Psychology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.980261/full |
| _version_ | 1797987522176876544 |
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| author | Erich H. Witte Adrian Stanciu Frank Zenker |
| author_facet | Erich H. Witte Adrian Stanciu Frank Zenker |
| author_sort | Erich H. Witte |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The identification of an empirically adequate theoretical construct requires determining whether a theoretically predicted effect is sufficiently similar to an observed effect. To this end, we propose a simple similarity measure, describe its application in different research designs, and use computer simulations to estimate the necessary sample size for a given observed effect. As our main example, we apply this measure to recent meta-analytical research on precognition. Results suggest that the evidential basis is too weak for a predicted precognition effect of d = 0.20 to be considered empirically adequate. As additional examples, we apply this measure to object-level experimental data from dissonance theory and a recent crowdsourcing hypothesis test, as well as to meta-analytical data on the correlation of personality traits and life outcomes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T07:48:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c23e3e4b2c2a46d4a9131863acc2cdcf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1664-1078 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T07:48:43Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Psychology |
| spelling | doaj.art-c23e3e4b2c2a46d4a9131863acc2cdcf2022-12-22T04:36:09ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Psychology1664-10782022-12-011310.3389/fpsyg.2022.980261980261Predicted as observed? How to identify empirically adequate theoretical constructsErich H. Witte0Adrian Stanciu1Frank Zenker2Institute for Psychology, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, GermanyData and Research on Society, GESIS-Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, Mannheim, GermanyDepartment of Philosophy, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, TurkeyThe identification of an empirically adequate theoretical construct requires determining whether a theoretically predicted effect is sufficiently similar to an observed effect. To this end, we propose a simple similarity measure, describe its application in different research designs, and use computer simulations to estimate the necessary sample size for a given observed effect. As our main example, we apply this measure to recent meta-analytical research on precognition. Results suggest that the evidential basis is too weak for a predicted precognition effect of d = 0.20 to be considered empirically adequate. As additional examples, we apply this measure to object-level experimental data from dissonance theory and a recent crowdsourcing hypothesis test, as well as to meta-analytical data on the correlation of personality traits and life outcomes.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.980261/fullcrowdsourcing hypothesis testdissonance theoryempirical adequacyPaul Meehlmeta-analysispersonality research |
| spellingShingle | Erich H. Witte Adrian Stanciu Frank Zenker Predicted as observed? How to identify empirically adequate theoretical constructs Frontiers in Psychology crowdsourcing hypothesis test dissonance theory empirical adequacy Paul Meehl meta-analysis personality research |
| title | Predicted as observed? How to identify empirically adequate theoretical constructs |
| title_full | Predicted as observed? How to identify empirically adequate theoretical constructs |
| title_fullStr | Predicted as observed? How to identify empirically adequate theoretical constructs |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicted as observed? How to identify empirically adequate theoretical constructs |
| title_short | Predicted as observed? How to identify empirically adequate theoretical constructs |
| title_sort | predicted as observed how to identify empirically adequate theoretical constructs |
| topic | crowdsourcing hypothesis test dissonance theory empirical adequacy Paul Meehl meta-analysis personality research |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.980261/full |
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