A mathematical model to assess the effects of COVID-19 on the cardiocirculatory system
Abstract Impaired cardiac function has been described as a frequent complication of COVID-19-related pneumonia. To investigate possible underlying mechanisms, we represented the cardiovascular system by means of a lumped-parameter 0D mathematical model. The model was calibrated using clinical data,...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-04-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-58849-3 |
| _version_ | 1797209369103826944 |
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| author | Andrea Tonini Christian Vergara Francesco Regazzoni Luca Dede’ Roberto Scrofani Chiara Cogliati Alfio Quarteroni |
| author_facet | Andrea Tonini Christian Vergara Francesco Regazzoni Luca Dede’ Roberto Scrofani Chiara Cogliati Alfio Quarteroni |
| author_sort | Andrea Tonini |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Impaired cardiac function has been described as a frequent complication of COVID-19-related pneumonia. To investigate possible underlying mechanisms, we represented the cardiovascular system by means of a lumped-parameter 0D mathematical model. The model was calibrated using clinical data, recorded in 58 patients hospitalized for COVID-19-related pneumonia, to make it patient-specific and to compute model outputs of clinical interest related to the cardiocirculatory system. We assessed, for each patient with a successful calibration, the statistical reliability of model outputs estimating the uncertainty intervals. Then, we performed a statistical analysis to compare healthy ranges and mean values (over patients) of reliable model outputs to determine which were significantly altered in COVID-19-related pneumonia. Our results showed significant increases in right ventricular systolic pressure, diastolic and mean pulmonary arterial pressure, and capillary wedge pressure. Instead, physical quantities related to the systemic circulation were not significantly altered. Remarkably, statistical analyses made on raw clinical data, without the support of a mathematical model, were unable to detect the effects of COVID-19-related pneumonia in pulmonary circulation, thus suggesting that the use of a calibrated 0D mathematical model to describe the cardiocirculatory system is an effective tool to investigate the impairments of the cardiocirculatory system associated with COVID-19. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T09:53:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c2744f835b7c4d3fb41839fa9955b3ac |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T09:53:36Z |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-c2744f835b7c4d3fb41839fa9955b3ac2024-04-14T11:15:06ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-04-0114111110.1038/s41598-024-58849-3A mathematical model to assess the effects of COVID-19 on the cardiocirculatory systemAndrea Tonini0Christian Vergara1Francesco Regazzoni2Luca Dede’3Roberto Scrofani4Chiara Cogliati5Alfio Quarteroni6MOX, Dipartimento di Matematica, Politecnico di MilanoLABS, Dipartimento di Chimica, Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di MilanoMOX, Dipartimento di Matematica, Politecnico di MilanoMOX, Dipartimento di Matematica, Politecnico di MilanoUOC Cardiochirurgia Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico di MilanoInternal Medicine, L. Sacco HospitalMOX, Dipartimento di Matematica, Politecnico di MilanoAbstract Impaired cardiac function has been described as a frequent complication of COVID-19-related pneumonia. To investigate possible underlying mechanisms, we represented the cardiovascular system by means of a lumped-parameter 0D mathematical model. The model was calibrated using clinical data, recorded in 58 patients hospitalized for COVID-19-related pneumonia, to make it patient-specific and to compute model outputs of clinical interest related to the cardiocirculatory system. We assessed, for each patient with a successful calibration, the statistical reliability of model outputs estimating the uncertainty intervals. Then, we performed a statistical analysis to compare healthy ranges and mean values (over patients) of reliable model outputs to determine which were significantly altered in COVID-19-related pneumonia. Our results showed significant increases in right ventricular systolic pressure, diastolic and mean pulmonary arterial pressure, and capillary wedge pressure. Instead, physical quantities related to the systemic circulation were not significantly altered. Remarkably, statistical analyses made on raw clinical data, without the support of a mathematical model, were unable to detect the effects of COVID-19-related pneumonia in pulmonary circulation, thus suggesting that the use of a calibrated 0D mathematical model to describe the cardiocirculatory system is an effective tool to investigate the impairments of the cardiocirculatory system associated with COVID-19.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-58849-3 |
| spellingShingle | Andrea Tonini Christian Vergara Francesco Regazzoni Luca Dede’ Roberto Scrofani Chiara Cogliati Alfio Quarteroni A mathematical model to assess the effects of COVID-19 on the cardiocirculatory system Scientific Reports |
| title | A mathematical model to assess the effects of COVID-19 on the cardiocirculatory system |
| title_full | A mathematical model to assess the effects of COVID-19 on the cardiocirculatory system |
| title_fullStr | A mathematical model to assess the effects of COVID-19 on the cardiocirculatory system |
| title_full_unstemmed | A mathematical model to assess the effects of COVID-19 on the cardiocirculatory system |
| title_short | A mathematical model to assess the effects of COVID-19 on the cardiocirculatory system |
| title_sort | mathematical model to assess the effects of covid 19 on the cardiocirculatory system |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-58849-3 |
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