Estimating the health burden of road traffic injuries in Malawi using an individual-based model
Abstract Background Road traffic injuries are a significant cause of death and disability globally. However, in some countries the exact health burden caused by road traffic injuries is unknown. In Malawi, there is no central reporting mechanism for road traffic injuries and so the exact extent of t...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2022-07-01
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| Series: | Injury Epidemiology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40621-022-00386-6 |
| _version_ | 1828542190159134720 |
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| author | Robert Manning Smith Valentina Cambiano Tim Colbourn Joseph H. Collins Matthew Graham Britta Jewell Ines Li Lin Tara D. Mangal Gerald Manthalu Joseph Mfutso-Bengo Emmanuel Mnjowe Sakshi Mohan Wingston Ng’ambi Andrew N. Phillips Paul Revill Bingling She Mads Sundet Asif Tamuri Pakwanja D. Twea Timothy B. Hallet |
| author_facet | Robert Manning Smith Valentina Cambiano Tim Colbourn Joseph H. Collins Matthew Graham Britta Jewell Ines Li Lin Tara D. Mangal Gerald Manthalu Joseph Mfutso-Bengo Emmanuel Mnjowe Sakshi Mohan Wingston Ng’ambi Andrew N. Phillips Paul Revill Bingling She Mads Sundet Asif Tamuri Pakwanja D. Twea Timothy B. Hallet |
| author_sort | Robert Manning Smith |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Road traffic injuries are a significant cause of death and disability globally. However, in some countries the exact health burden caused by road traffic injuries is unknown. In Malawi, there is no central reporting mechanism for road traffic injuries and so the exact extent of the health burden caused by road traffic injuries is hard to determine. A limited number of models predict the incidence of mortality due to road traffic injury in Malawi. These estimates vary greatly, owing to differences in assumptions, and so the health burden caused on the population by road traffic injuries remains unclear. Methods We use an individual-based model and combine an epidemiological model of road traffic injuries with a health seeking behaviour and health system model. We provide a detailed representation of road traffic injuries in Malawi, from the onset of the injury through to the final health outcome. We also investigate the effects of an assumption made by other models that multiple injuries do not contribute to health burden caused by road accidents. Results Our model estimates an overall average incidence of mortality between 23.5 and 29.8 per 100,000 person years due to road traffic injuries and an average of 180,000 to 225,000 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per year between 2010 and 2020 in an estimated average population size of 1,364,000 over the 10-year period. Our estimated incidence of mortality falls within the range of other estimates currently available for Malawi, whereas our estimated number of DALYs is greater than the only other estimate available for Malawi, the GBD estimate predicting and average of 126,200 DALYs per year over the same time period. Our estimates, which account for multiple injuries, predict a 22–58% increase in overall health burden compared to the model ran as a single injury model. Conclusions Road traffic injuries are difficult to model with conventional modelling methods, owing to the numerous types of injuries that occur. Using an individual-based model framework, we can provide a detailed representation of road traffic injuries. Our results indicate a higher health burden caused by road traffic injuries than previously estimated. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T01:51:45Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c28dfc5682b348fbb3375405a51413fa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2197-1714 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T01:51:45Z |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Injury Epidemiology |
| spelling | doaj.art-c28dfc5682b348fbb3375405a51413fa2022-12-22T00:42:27ZengBMCInjury Epidemiology2197-17142022-07-019112910.1186/s40621-022-00386-6Estimating the health burden of road traffic injuries in Malawi using an individual-based modelRobert Manning Smith0Valentina Cambiano1Tim Colbourn2Joseph H. Collins3Matthew Graham4Britta Jewell5Ines Li Lin6Tara D. Mangal7Gerald Manthalu8Joseph Mfutso-Bengo9Emmanuel Mnjowe10Sakshi Mohan11Wingston Ng’ambi12Andrew N. Phillips13Paul Revill14Bingling She15Mads Sundet16Asif Tamuri17Pakwanja D. Twea18Timothy B. Hallet19University College LondonUniversity College LondonUniversity College LondonUniversity College LondonUniversity College LondonImperial College LondonUniversity College LondonImperial College LondonMinistry of Health and PopulationKamuzu University of Health Sciences, Mahatma GandhiUniversity of MalawiUniversity of YorkUniversity of MalawiUniversity College LondonUniversity of YorkImperial College LondonREMEDY-Center for treatment of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Diseases, Diakonhjemmet HospitalUniversity College LondonMinistry of Health and PopulationImperial College LondonAbstract Background Road traffic injuries are a significant cause of death and disability globally. However, in some countries the exact health burden caused by road traffic injuries is unknown. In Malawi, there is no central reporting mechanism for road traffic injuries and so the exact extent of the health burden caused by road traffic injuries is hard to determine. A limited number of models predict the incidence of mortality due to road traffic injury in Malawi. These estimates vary greatly, owing to differences in assumptions, and so the health burden caused on the population by road traffic injuries remains unclear. Methods We use an individual-based model and combine an epidemiological model of road traffic injuries with a health seeking behaviour and health system model. We provide a detailed representation of road traffic injuries in Malawi, from the onset of the injury through to the final health outcome. We also investigate the effects of an assumption made by other models that multiple injuries do not contribute to health burden caused by road accidents. Results Our model estimates an overall average incidence of mortality between 23.5 and 29.8 per 100,000 person years due to road traffic injuries and an average of 180,000 to 225,000 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per year between 2010 and 2020 in an estimated average population size of 1,364,000 over the 10-year period. Our estimated incidence of mortality falls within the range of other estimates currently available for Malawi, whereas our estimated number of DALYs is greater than the only other estimate available for Malawi, the GBD estimate predicting and average of 126,200 DALYs per year over the same time period. Our estimates, which account for multiple injuries, predict a 22–58% increase in overall health burden compared to the model ran as a single injury model. Conclusions Road traffic injuries are difficult to model with conventional modelling methods, owing to the numerous types of injuries that occur. Using an individual-based model framework, we can provide a detailed representation of road traffic injuries. Our results indicate a higher health burden caused by road traffic injuries than previously estimated.https://doi.org/10.1186/s40621-022-00386-6Road traffic injuriesMalawiIndividual-based modelHealth burden |
| spellingShingle | Robert Manning Smith Valentina Cambiano Tim Colbourn Joseph H. Collins Matthew Graham Britta Jewell Ines Li Lin Tara D. Mangal Gerald Manthalu Joseph Mfutso-Bengo Emmanuel Mnjowe Sakshi Mohan Wingston Ng’ambi Andrew N. Phillips Paul Revill Bingling She Mads Sundet Asif Tamuri Pakwanja D. Twea Timothy B. Hallet Estimating the health burden of road traffic injuries in Malawi using an individual-based model Injury Epidemiology Road traffic injuries Malawi Individual-based model Health burden |
| title | Estimating the health burden of road traffic injuries in Malawi using an individual-based model |
| title_full | Estimating the health burden of road traffic injuries in Malawi using an individual-based model |
| title_fullStr | Estimating the health burden of road traffic injuries in Malawi using an individual-based model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating the health burden of road traffic injuries in Malawi using an individual-based model |
| title_short | Estimating the health burden of road traffic injuries in Malawi using an individual-based model |
| title_sort | estimating the health burden of road traffic injuries in malawi using an individual based model |
| topic | Road traffic injuries Malawi Individual-based model Health burden |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40621-022-00386-6 |
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