| Summary: | The age, size and morphology of trees, including crown dimensions, can influence crown defoliation. In Croatia, the selection management of silver fir (<i>Abies alba</i> Mill.) forests involves pure or mixed stands, either of which can be affected by various disturbances, resulting in unbalanced stand structures. The aim of this study was to estimate the probability of trees transitioning from one defoliation class to the next, examine the influence of tree attributes on that process and analyze the changes in survival over time. The study was conducted over a 18-year period (1990–2007) on two sites with contrasting stand structures: a uniform stand with a dominant share of silver fir (Site A) and an uneven-aged mixed beech–fir stand (Site B). Logistic regression was used to model tree transitions between defoliation classes. Uniform stand structure increased the likelihood of silver fir trees transitioning to a higher defoliation class, with limited dependence on the tree crown position. In contrast, suppressed and central trees in uneven-aged stands were more likely to transition to a higher defoliation due to greater competition between them. Diameter at breast height (DBH) was found to be a significant predictor of tree transition to higher defoliation classes, with a linear trend of increasing probability with increasing DBH. Crown position and crown length were also found to be significant predictors of changing defoliation class, with observed differences between sites occurring due to differences in stand structure. To ensure a balanced stand structure and enhance tree vitality, careful consideration of easily measurable tree elements such as DBH, crown length, and tree crown position is imperative when selecting trees for felling.
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