Forewarning Model for Glacial Lake Outburst in Southeast Tibet
The southeast region of Tibet experiences frequent glacial lake outburst disasters, and disaster warning systems are thus crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation in the area. In this study, based on remote sensing images and historical data, 20 glacial lakes in southeast Tibet were selected a...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2023-01-01
|
| Series: | Applied Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/13/3/1797 |
| _version_ | 1797625129072590848 |
|---|---|
| author | Jiajia Gao Jun Du Zhuoma Yixi |
| author_facet | Jiajia Gao Jun Du Zhuoma Yixi |
| author_sort | Jiajia Gao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The southeast region of Tibet experiences frequent glacial lake outburst disasters, and disaster warning systems are thus crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation in the area. In this study, based on remote sensing images and historical data, 20 glacial lakes in southeast Tibet were selected as samples for risk analysis. A probability model of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in southeast Tibet was established using logistic regression for seven selected prediction indexes. By calculating the sensitivity and specificity of the model, the probability of identifying GLOFs was found to be 60%, with an identification degree of 86%. The under the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve index was prominently larger than 0.5, indicating the applicability of logistic regression for predicting GLOFs in southeast Tibet. The probability equation of the model shows that the area of the glacial lake, the distance of the glacial lake from the glacier, the slope of the glacier, the slope of the glacier tongue, and the dam backwater slope have a great influence on the probability of GLOFs. The results can provide a reference for the local governments to prevent disasters and reduce the damage of GLOFs. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T09:52:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c2b18afe1375499091543188291d99fe |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-3417 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T09:52:24Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Applied Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-c2b18afe1375499091543188291d99fe2023-11-16T16:10:32ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172023-01-01133179710.3390/app13031797Forewarning Model for Glacial Lake Outburst in Southeast TibetJiajia Gao0Jun Du1Zhuoma Yixi2School of Science, Tibet University, Lhasa 850001, ChinaTibet Institute of Plateau Atmospheric and Environmental Science, Lhasa 850001, ChinaTibet Climate Center, Lhasa 850001, ChinaThe southeast region of Tibet experiences frequent glacial lake outburst disasters, and disaster warning systems are thus crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation in the area. In this study, based on remote sensing images and historical data, 20 glacial lakes in southeast Tibet were selected as samples for risk analysis. A probability model of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in southeast Tibet was established using logistic regression for seven selected prediction indexes. By calculating the sensitivity and specificity of the model, the probability of identifying GLOFs was found to be 60%, with an identification degree of 86%. The under the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve index was prominently larger than 0.5, indicating the applicability of logistic regression for predicting GLOFs in southeast Tibet. The probability equation of the model shows that the area of the glacial lake, the distance of the glacial lake from the glacier, the slope of the glacier, the slope of the glacier tongue, and the dam backwater slope have a great influence on the probability of GLOFs. The results can provide a reference for the local governments to prevent disasters and reduce the damage of GLOFs.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/13/3/1797disaster warningglacial lake outburstlogical regressionsoutheast Tibet |
| spellingShingle | Jiajia Gao Jun Du Zhuoma Yixi Forewarning Model for Glacial Lake Outburst in Southeast Tibet Applied Sciences disaster warning glacial lake outburst logical regression southeast Tibet |
| title | Forewarning Model for Glacial Lake Outburst in Southeast Tibet |
| title_full | Forewarning Model for Glacial Lake Outburst in Southeast Tibet |
| title_fullStr | Forewarning Model for Glacial Lake Outburst in Southeast Tibet |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forewarning Model for Glacial Lake Outburst in Southeast Tibet |
| title_short | Forewarning Model for Glacial Lake Outburst in Southeast Tibet |
| title_sort | forewarning model for glacial lake outburst in southeast tibet |
| topic | disaster warning glacial lake outburst logical regression southeast Tibet |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/13/3/1797 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jiajiagao forewarningmodelforglaciallakeoutburstinsoutheasttibet AT jundu forewarningmodelforglaciallakeoutburstinsoutheasttibet AT zhuomayixi forewarningmodelforglaciallakeoutburstinsoutheasttibet |