Numerically Bounded Linguistic Probability Schemes Are Unlikely to Communicate Uncertainty Effectively

Abstract In a recent issue of Earth's Future (vol. 7, pp. 1020–1026), S. C. Lewis et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001273) recommended a numerically bounded linguistic probability (NBLP) scheme for communicating probabilistic information in extreme event attribution studies. We provi...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: D. R. Mandel, T. S. Wallsten, D. V. Budescu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2021-01-01
Series:Earth's Future
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001526
Description
Summary:Abstract In a recent issue of Earth's Future (vol. 7, pp. 1020–1026), S. C. Lewis et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001273) recommended a numerically bounded linguistic probability (NBLP) scheme for communicating probabilistic information in extreme event attribution studies. We provide a critique of NBLP schemes in general and of Lewis et al.'s in particular, noting two key points. First, evidence from voluminous behavioral science research on the interpretation of linguistic probabilities indicates that NBLP schemes are an ineffective means of communicating uncertainty to others. Second, where the motivation to implement such schemes nevertheless persists, the schemes should be developed through an evidence‐based approach that seeks to optimize interpretational agreement between the scheme and users.
ISSN:2328-4277