A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business Intelligence
In the field of data analysis, it is common not to distinguish clearly between prediction and forecast. Although the results of both processes may tend to converge, the mechanisms used in each case tend to be completely different. Prediction has to do with statistical extrapolation and estimation an...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Postgraduate Office, School of Computer Science, Universidad Nacional de La Plata
2019-10-01
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| Series: | Journal of Computer Science and Technology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.info.unlp.edu.ar/JCST/article/view/1277 |
| _version_ | 1818433256783085568 |
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| author | Antonio Lorenzo Sánchez Jose Angel Olivas |
| author_facet | Antonio Lorenzo Sánchez Jose Angel Olivas |
| author_sort | Antonio Lorenzo Sánchez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In the field of data analysis, it is common not to distinguish clearly between prediction and forecast. Although the results of both processes may tend to converge, the mechanisms used in each case tend to be completely different. Prediction has to do with statistical extrapolation and estimation and forecasting can consider expert judgments on the subject. A methodology is proposed to carry out this latter task, with a mechanism that uses both historical and current data with the judgement of an expert. The methodology is applied to the case study of the Spanish general elections of April 2019. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T16:18:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c2ea2050f68f48629d2dc7d709eaa46c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1666-6046 1666-6038 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T16:18:13Z |
| publishDate | 2019-10-01 |
| publisher | Postgraduate Office, School of Computer Science, Universidad Nacional de La Plata |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Computer Science and Technology |
| spelling | doaj.art-c2ea2050f68f48629d2dc7d709eaa46c2022-12-21T22:54:52ZengPostgraduate Office, School of Computer Science, Universidad Nacional de La PlataJournal of Computer Science and Technology1666-60461666-60382019-10-01192e14e1410.24215/16666038.19.e141277A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business IntelligenceAntonio Lorenzo Sánchez0Jose Angel Olivas1Information Technologies and Systems Institute, University of Castilla La Mancha, Ciudad Real, Spain.Information Technologies and Systems Institute, University of Castilla La Mancha, Ciudad Real, Spain.In the field of data analysis, it is common not to distinguish clearly between prediction and forecast. Although the results of both processes may tend to converge, the mechanisms used in each case tend to be completely different. Prediction has to do with statistical extrapolation and estimation and forecasting can consider expert judgments on the subject. A methodology is proposed to carry out this latter task, with a mechanism that uses both historical and current data with the judgement of an expert. The methodology is applied to the case study of the Spanish general elections of April 2019.http://journal.info.unlp.edu.ar/JCST/article/view/1277business intelligenceexpert knowledgeforecastmethodologyprediction |
| spellingShingle | Antonio Lorenzo Sánchez Jose Angel Olivas A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business Intelligence Journal of Computer Science and Technology business intelligence expert knowledge forecast methodology prediction |
| title | A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business Intelligence |
| title_full | A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business Intelligence |
| title_fullStr | A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business Intelligence |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business Intelligence |
| title_short | A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business Intelligence |
| title_sort | case study of forecasting elections results beyond prediction based on business intelligence |
| topic | business intelligence expert knowledge forecast methodology prediction |
| url | http://journal.info.unlp.edu.ar/JCST/article/view/1277 |
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