The predictive validity of a Brain Care Score for dementia and stroke: data from the UK Biobank cohort

IntroductionThe 21-point Brain Care Score (BCS) was developed through a modified Delphi process in partnership with practitioners and patients to promote behavior changes and lifestyle choices in order to sustainably reduce the risk of dementia and stroke. We aimed to assess the associations of the...

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Main Authors: Sanjula D. Singh, Tin Oreskovic, Sinclair Carr, Keren Papier, Megan Conroy, Jasper R. Senff, Zeina Chemali, Leidys Gutierrez-Martinez, Livia Parodi, Ernst Mayerhofer, Sandro Marini, Courtney Nunley, Amy Newhouse, An Ouyang, H. Bart Brouwers, Brandon Westover, Cyprien Rivier, Guido Falcone, Virginia Howard, George Howard, Aleksandra Pikula, Sarah Ibrahim, Kevin N. Sheth, Nirupama Yechoor, Ronald M. Lazar, Christopher D. Anderson, Rudolph E. Tanzi, Gregory Fricchione, Thomas Littlejohns, Jonathan Rosand
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2023-12-01
Series:Frontiers in Neurology
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fneur.2023.1291020/full
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author Sanjula D. Singh
Sanjula D. Singh
Sanjula D. Singh
Sanjula D. Singh
Sanjula D. Singh
Tin Oreskovic
Sinclair Carr
Sinclair Carr
Keren Papier
Megan Conroy
Jasper R. Senff
Jasper R. Senff
Jasper R. Senff
Jasper R. Senff
Jasper R. Senff
Zeina Chemali
Zeina Chemali
Zeina Chemali
Leidys Gutierrez-Martinez
Leidys Gutierrez-Martinez
Leidys Gutierrez-Martinez
Leidys Gutierrez-Martinez
Livia Parodi
Livia Parodi
Livia Parodi
Livia Parodi
Ernst Mayerhofer
Ernst Mayerhofer
Ernst Mayerhofer
Ernst Mayerhofer
Sandro Marini
Sandro Marini
Sandro Marini
Sandro Marini
Courtney Nunley
Amy Newhouse
Amy Newhouse
Amy Newhouse
An Ouyang
An Ouyang
H. Bart Brouwers
Brandon Westover
Brandon Westover
Brandon Westover
Cyprien Rivier
Guido Falcone
Virginia Howard
George Howard
Aleksandra Pikula
Aleksandra Pikula
Aleksandra Pikula
Sarah Ibrahim
Sarah Ibrahim
Sarah Ibrahim
Kevin N. Sheth
Nirupama Yechoor
Nirupama Yechoor
Nirupama Yechoor
Nirupama Yechoor
Ronald M. Lazar
Christopher D. Anderson
Christopher D. Anderson
Christopher D. Anderson
Christopher D. Anderson
Christopher D. Anderson
Rudolph E. Tanzi
Gregory Fricchione
Gregory Fricchione
Thomas Littlejohns
Jonathan Rosand
Jonathan Rosand
Jonathan Rosand
Jonathan Rosand
author_facet Sanjula D. Singh
Sanjula D. Singh
Sanjula D. Singh
Sanjula D. Singh
Sanjula D. Singh
Tin Oreskovic
Sinclair Carr
Sinclair Carr
Keren Papier
Megan Conroy
Jasper R. Senff
Jasper R. Senff
Jasper R. Senff
Jasper R. Senff
Jasper R. Senff
Zeina Chemali
Zeina Chemali
Zeina Chemali
Leidys Gutierrez-Martinez
Leidys Gutierrez-Martinez
Leidys Gutierrez-Martinez
Leidys Gutierrez-Martinez
Livia Parodi
Livia Parodi
Livia Parodi
Livia Parodi
Ernst Mayerhofer
Ernst Mayerhofer
Ernst Mayerhofer
Ernst Mayerhofer
Sandro Marini
Sandro Marini
Sandro Marini
Sandro Marini
Courtney Nunley
Amy Newhouse
Amy Newhouse
Amy Newhouse
An Ouyang
An Ouyang
H. Bart Brouwers
Brandon Westover
Brandon Westover
Brandon Westover
Cyprien Rivier
Guido Falcone
Virginia Howard
George Howard
Aleksandra Pikula
Aleksandra Pikula
Aleksandra Pikula
Sarah Ibrahim
Sarah Ibrahim
Sarah Ibrahim
Kevin N. Sheth
Nirupama Yechoor
Nirupama Yechoor
Nirupama Yechoor
Nirupama Yechoor
Ronald M. Lazar
Christopher D. Anderson
Christopher D. Anderson
Christopher D. Anderson
Christopher D. Anderson
Christopher D. Anderson
Rudolph E. Tanzi
Gregory Fricchione
Gregory Fricchione
Thomas Littlejohns
Jonathan Rosand
Jonathan Rosand
Jonathan Rosand
Jonathan Rosand
author_sort Sanjula D. Singh
collection DOAJ
description IntroductionThe 21-point Brain Care Score (BCS) was developed through a modified Delphi process in partnership with practitioners and patients to promote behavior changes and lifestyle choices in order to sustainably reduce the risk of dementia and stroke. We aimed to assess the associations of the BCS with risk of incident dementia and stroke.MethodsThe BCS was derived from the United Kingdom Biobank (UKB) baseline evaluation for participants aged 40–69 years, recruited between 2006–2010. Associations of BCS and risk of subsequent incident dementia and stroke were estimated using Cox proportional hazard regressions, adjusted for sex assigned at birth and stratified by age groups at baseline.ResultsThe BCS (median: 12; IQR:11–14) was derived for 398,990 UKB participants (mean age: 57; females: 54%). There were 5,354 incident cases of dementia and 7,259 incident cases of stroke recorded during a median follow-up of 12.5 years. A five-point higher BCS at baseline was associated with a 59% (95%CI: 40-72%) lower risk of dementia among participants aged <50. Among those aged 50–59, the figure was 32% (95%CI: 20-42%) and 8% (95%CI: 2-14%) for those aged >59 years. A five-point higher BCS was associated with a 48% (95%CI: 39-56%) lower risk of stroke among participants aged <50, 52% (95%CI, 47-56%) among those aged 50–59, and 33% (95%CI, 29-37%) among those aged >59.DiscussionThe BCS has clinically relevant and statistically significant associations with risk of dementia and stroke in approximately 0.4 million UK people. Future research includes investigating the feasibility, adaptability and implementation of the BCS for patients and providers worldwide.
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spelling doaj.art-c30fa6ef439248eb9bb5d0fe78cbed432023-12-01T12:07:16ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Neurology1664-22952023-12-011410.3389/fneur.2023.12910201291020The predictive validity of a Brain Care Score for dementia and stroke: data from the UK Biobank cohortSanjula D. Singh0Sanjula D. Singh1Sanjula D. Singh2Sanjula D. Singh3Sanjula D. Singh4Tin Oreskovic5Sinclair Carr6Sinclair Carr7Keren Papier8Megan Conroy9Jasper R. Senff10Jasper R. Senff11Jasper R. Senff12Jasper R. Senff13Jasper R. Senff14Zeina Chemali15Zeina Chemali16Zeina Chemali17Leidys Gutierrez-Martinez18Leidys Gutierrez-Martinez19Leidys Gutierrez-Martinez20Leidys Gutierrez-Martinez21Livia Parodi22Livia Parodi23Livia Parodi24Livia Parodi25Ernst Mayerhofer26Ernst Mayerhofer27Ernst Mayerhofer28Ernst Mayerhofer29Sandro Marini30Sandro Marini31Sandro Marini32Sandro Marini33Courtney Nunley34Amy Newhouse35Amy Newhouse36Amy Newhouse37An Ouyang38An Ouyang39H. Bart Brouwers40Brandon Westover41Brandon Westover42Brandon Westover43Cyprien Rivier44Guido Falcone45Virginia Howard46George Howard47Aleksandra Pikula48Aleksandra Pikula49Aleksandra Pikula50Sarah Ibrahim51Sarah Ibrahim52Sarah Ibrahim53Kevin N. Sheth54Nirupama Yechoor55Nirupama Yechoor56Nirupama Yechoor57Nirupama Yechoor58Ronald M. Lazar59Christopher D. Anderson60Christopher D. Anderson61Christopher D. Anderson62Christopher D. Anderson63Christopher D. Anderson64Rudolph E. Tanzi65Gregory Fricchione66Gregory Fricchione67Thomas Littlejohns68Jonathan Rosand69Jonathan Rosand70Jonathan Rosand71Jonathan Rosand72Henry and Allison McCance Center for Brain Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesNuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United KingdomDepartment of Neurology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesBroad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, United StatesCenter for Genomic Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesNuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United KingdomInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United StatesDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United StatesNuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United KingdomNuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United KingdomHenry and Allison McCance Center for Brain Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesDepartment of Neurology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesBroad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, United StatesCenter for Genomic Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesDepartment of Neurology and Neurosurgery, Brain Center Rudolf Magnus, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, NetherlandsHenry and Allison McCance Center for Brain Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesDepartment of Neurology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesDivision of Neuropsychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesHenry and Allison McCance Center for Brain Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesDepartment of Neurology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesBroad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, United StatesCenter for Genomic Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesHenry and Allison McCance Center for Brain Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesDepartment of Neurology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesBroad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, United StatesCenter for Genomic Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesHenry and Allison McCance Center for Brain Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesDepartment of Neurology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesBroad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, United StatesCenter for Genomic Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesHenry and Allison McCance Center for Brain Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesDepartment of Neurology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesBroad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, United StatesCenter for Genomic Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesHenry and Allison McCance Center for Brain Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesHenry and Allison McCance Center for Brain Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesDivision of Neuropsychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United States0Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesHenry and Allison McCance Center for Brain Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesDepartment of Neurology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesDepartment of Neurology and Neurosurgery, Brain Center Rudolf Magnus, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, NetherlandsHenry and Allison McCance Center for Brain Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesDepartment of Neurology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesBroad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, United States1Department of Neurology, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, United States1Department of Neurology, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, United States2Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, United States2Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, United States3Department of Medicine (Neurology), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada4Krembil Brain Institute, Toronto, ON, Canada5Lawrence S Bloomberg Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada3Department of Medicine (Neurology), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada4Krembil Brain Institute, Toronto, ON, Canada5Lawrence S Bloomberg Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada1Department of Neurology, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, United StatesHenry and Allison McCance Center for Brain Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesDepartment of Neurology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesBroad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, United StatesCenter for Genomic Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United States6McKnight Brain Institute, Department of Neurology, School of Medicine, University of Alabama School of Medicine, Birmingham, AL, United StatesHenry and Allison McCance Center for Brain Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesDepartment of Neurology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesBroad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, United StatesCenter for Genomic Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United States7Department of Neurology, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesHenry and Allison McCance Center for Brain Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesHenry and Allison McCance Center for Brain Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United States8Benson-Henry Institute for Mind Body Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesNuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United KingdomHenry and Allison McCance Center for Brain Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesDepartment of Neurology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesBroad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, United StatesCenter for Genomic Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United StatesIntroductionThe 21-point Brain Care Score (BCS) was developed through a modified Delphi process in partnership with practitioners and patients to promote behavior changes and lifestyle choices in order to sustainably reduce the risk of dementia and stroke. We aimed to assess the associations of the BCS with risk of incident dementia and stroke.MethodsThe BCS was derived from the United Kingdom Biobank (UKB) baseline evaluation for participants aged 40–69 years, recruited between 2006–2010. Associations of BCS and risk of subsequent incident dementia and stroke were estimated using Cox proportional hazard regressions, adjusted for sex assigned at birth and stratified by age groups at baseline.ResultsThe BCS (median: 12; IQR:11–14) was derived for 398,990 UKB participants (mean age: 57; females: 54%). There were 5,354 incident cases of dementia and 7,259 incident cases of stroke recorded during a median follow-up of 12.5 years. A five-point higher BCS at baseline was associated with a 59% (95%CI: 40-72%) lower risk of dementia among participants aged <50. Among those aged 50–59, the figure was 32% (95%CI: 20-42%) and 8% (95%CI: 2-14%) for those aged >59 years. A five-point higher BCS was associated with a 48% (95%CI: 39-56%) lower risk of stroke among participants aged <50, 52% (95%CI, 47-56%) among those aged 50–59, and 33% (95%CI, 29-37%) among those aged >59.DiscussionThe BCS has clinically relevant and statistically significant associations with risk of dementia and stroke in approximately 0.4 million UK people. Future research includes investigating the feasibility, adaptability and implementation of the BCS for patients and providers worldwide.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fneur.2023.1291020/fullBrain Care Scorebrain healthpreventionrisk factorsUK Biobank (UKB)stroke
spellingShingle Sanjula D. Singh
Sanjula D. Singh
Sanjula D. Singh
Sanjula D. Singh
Sanjula D. Singh
Tin Oreskovic
Sinclair Carr
Sinclair Carr
Keren Papier
Megan Conroy
Jasper R. Senff
Jasper R. Senff
Jasper R. Senff
Jasper R. Senff
Jasper R. Senff
Zeina Chemali
Zeina Chemali
Zeina Chemali
Leidys Gutierrez-Martinez
Leidys Gutierrez-Martinez
Leidys Gutierrez-Martinez
Leidys Gutierrez-Martinez
Livia Parodi
Livia Parodi
Livia Parodi
Livia Parodi
Ernst Mayerhofer
Ernst Mayerhofer
Ernst Mayerhofer
Ernst Mayerhofer
Sandro Marini
Sandro Marini
Sandro Marini
Sandro Marini
Courtney Nunley
Amy Newhouse
Amy Newhouse
Amy Newhouse
An Ouyang
An Ouyang
H. Bart Brouwers
Brandon Westover
Brandon Westover
Brandon Westover
Cyprien Rivier
Guido Falcone
Virginia Howard
George Howard
Aleksandra Pikula
Aleksandra Pikula
Aleksandra Pikula
Sarah Ibrahim
Sarah Ibrahim
Sarah Ibrahim
Kevin N. Sheth
Nirupama Yechoor
Nirupama Yechoor
Nirupama Yechoor
Nirupama Yechoor
Ronald M. Lazar
Christopher D. Anderson
Christopher D. Anderson
Christopher D. Anderson
Christopher D. Anderson
Christopher D. Anderson
Rudolph E. Tanzi
Gregory Fricchione
Gregory Fricchione
Thomas Littlejohns
Jonathan Rosand
Jonathan Rosand
Jonathan Rosand
Jonathan Rosand
The predictive validity of a Brain Care Score for dementia and stroke: data from the UK Biobank cohort
Frontiers in Neurology
Brain Care Score
brain health
prevention
risk factors
UK Biobank (UKB)
stroke
title The predictive validity of a Brain Care Score for dementia and stroke: data from the UK Biobank cohort
title_full The predictive validity of a Brain Care Score for dementia and stroke: data from the UK Biobank cohort
title_fullStr The predictive validity of a Brain Care Score for dementia and stroke: data from the UK Biobank cohort
title_full_unstemmed The predictive validity of a Brain Care Score for dementia and stroke: data from the UK Biobank cohort
title_short The predictive validity of a Brain Care Score for dementia and stroke: data from the UK Biobank cohort
title_sort predictive validity of a brain care score for dementia and stroke data from the uk biobank cohort
topic Brain Care Score
brain health
prevention
risk factors
UK Biobank (UKB)
stroke
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fneur.2023.1291020/full
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AT liviaparodi predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT liviaparodi predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT ernstmayerhofer predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT ernstmayerhofer predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT ernstmayerhofer predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT ernstmayerhofer predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT sandromarini predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT sandromarini predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT sandromarini predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT sandromarini predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT courtneynunley predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT amynewhouse predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT amynewhouse predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT amynewhouse predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT anouyang predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT anouyang predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT hbartbrouwers predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT brandonwestover predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT brandonwestover predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT brandonwestover predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT cyprienrivier predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT guidofalcone predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT virginiahoward predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT georgehoward predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT aleksandrapikula predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT aleksandrapikula predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT aleksandrapikula predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT sarahibrahim predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT sarahibrahim predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT sarahibrahim predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT kevinnsheth predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT nirupamayechoor predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT nirupamayechoor predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT nirupamayechoor predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT nirupamayechoor predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT ronaldmlazar predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT christopherdanderson predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT christopherdanderson predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT christopherdanderson predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT christopherdanderson predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT christopherdanderson predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT rudolphetanzi predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT gregoryfricchione predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT gregoryfricchione predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT thomaslittlejohns predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT jonathanrosand predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT jonathanrosand predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT jonathanrosand predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort
AT jonathanrosand predictivevalidityofabraincarescorefordementiaandstrokedatafromtheukbiobankcohort