Space-Time Causality Analysis of Regional Impacts of ENSO on Terrestrial and Oceanic Precipitation
Future changes are expected in precipitation under climate change, therefore, changes are projected in the oceanic and terrestrial components. However, it remains poorly elucidated how the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can influence these changes. Therefore, we aimed to perform a space-time ca...
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| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/5/841 |
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| author | Gleisis Alvarez-Socorro José C. Fernández-Alvarez Luis Gimeno |
| author_facet | Gleisis Alvarez-Socorro José C. Fernández-Alvarez Luis Gimeno |
| author_sort | Gleisis Alvarez-Socorro |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Future changes are expected in precipitation under climate change, therefore, changes are projected in the oceanic and terrestrial components. However, it remains poorly elucidated how the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can influence these changes. Therefore, we aimed to perform a space-time causality analysis of regional ENSO impacts on terrestrial and oceanic precipitation by using the Granger causality method as a function of eight temporal lags (lags 1–8). The monthly values of total precipitation obtained using the Lagrangian approach and their respective terrestrial (PLT) and oceanic (PLO) components were used. The analysis was performed for the two regions of western North America (WNA) and eastern South America (ESA) with strong ENSO signals. For the WNA region in winter, the maximum Granger causality was observed in the component of oceanic origin for temporal lags 1 and 2 (3 and 6 months), with a predominance of both positive and negative ENSO conditions. For the ESA region, it was verified that the causality of the ENSO index was maximum for PLT. Temporal lags 2–5 (6–15 months) stood out in winter when there was a marked region of the Granger causality over the La Plata Basin. In autumn, for lags 1–4 (3–12 months), the Granger causality values were predominant in the southern and western areas of ESA and showed a tendency to move northward with an increased temporal lag. Finally, it was shown that high correlation values did not imply the causality of the relationship between the ENSO index and precipitation in the two regions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T03:58:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c31c3182045847c798e32cc39c6f1083 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T03:58:01Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-c31c3182045847c798e32cc39c6f10832023-11-18T00:25:37ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332023-05-0114584110.3390/atmos14050841Space-Time Causality Analysis of Regional Impacts of ENSO on Terrestrial and Oceanic PrecipitationGleisis Alvarez-Socorro0José C. Fernández-Alvarez1Luis Gimeno2Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Centro de Investigación Mariña, Universidade de Vigo, 32004 Ourense, SpainEnvironmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Centro de Investigación Mariña, Universidade de Vigo, 32004 Ourense, SpainEnvironmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Centro de Investigación Mariña, Universidade de Vigo, 32004 Ourense, SpainFuture changes are expected in precipitation under climate change, therefore, changes are projected in the oceanic and terrestrial components. However, it remains poorly elucidated how the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can influence these changes. Therefore, we aimed to perform a space-time causality analysis of regional ENSO impacts on terrestrial and oceanic precipitation by using the Granger causality method as a function of eight temporal lags (lags 1–8). The monthly values of total precipitation obtained using the Lagrangian approach and their respective terrestrial (PLT) and oceanic (PLO) components were used. The analysis was performed for the two regions of western North America (WNA) and eastern South America (ESA) with strong ENSO signals. For the WNA region in winter, the maximum Granger causality was observed in the component of oceanic origin for temporal lags 1 and 2 (3 and 6 months), with a predominance of both positive and negative ENSO conditions. For the ESA region, it was verified that the causality of the ENSO index was maximum for PLT. Temporal lags 2–5 (6–15 months) stood out in winter when there was a marked region of the Granger causality over the La Plata Basin. In autumn, for lags 1–4 (3–12 months), the Granger causality values were predominant in the southern and western areas of ESA and showed a tendency to move northward with an increased temporal lag. Finally, it was shown that high correlation values did not imply the causality of the relationship between the ENSO index and precipitation in the two regions.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/5/841Granger causalityoceanic precipitationterrestrial precipitationENSOtemporal lag |
| spellingShingle | Gleisis Alvarez-Socorro José C. Fernández-Alvarez Luis Gimeno Space-Time Causality Analysis of Regional Impacts of ENSO on Terrestrial and Oceanic Precipitation Atmosphere Granger causality oceanic precipitation terrestrial precipitation ENSO temporal lag |
| title | Space-Time Causality Analysis of Regional Impacts of ENSO on Terrestrial and Oceanic Precipitation |
| title_full | Space-Time Causality Analysis of Regional Impacts of ENSO on Terrestrial and Oceanic Precipitation |
| title_fullStr | Space-Time Causality Analysis of Regional Impacts of ENSO on Terrestrial and Oceanic Precipitation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Space-Time Causality Analysis of Regional Impacts of ENSO on Terrestrial and Oceanic Precipitation |
| title_short | Space-Time Causality Analysis of Regional Impacts of ENSO on Terrestrial and Oceanic Precipitation |
| title_sort | space time causality analysis of regional impacts of enso on terrestrial and oceanic precipitation |
| topic | Granger causality oceanic precipitation terrestrial precipitation ENSO temporal lag |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/5/841 |
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