Transmission patterns of COVID-19 in the mainland of China and the efficacy of different control strategies: a data- and model-driven study
Abstract Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has seriously endangered the health and lives of Chinese people. In this study, we predicted the COVID-19 epidemic trend and estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies in the mainland of China. Methods According to t...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2020-07-01
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| Series: | Infectious Diseases of Poverty |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40249-020-00709-z |
| _version_ | 1818161862754172928 |
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| author | Jian Zu Miao-Lei Li Zong-Fang Li Ming-Wang Shen Yan-Ni Xiao Fan-Pu Ji |
| author_facet | Jian Zu Miao-Lei Li Zong-Fang Li Ming-Wang Shen Yan-Ni Xiao Fan-Pu Ji |
| author_sort | Jian Zu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has seriously endangered the health and lives of Chinese people. In this study, we predicted the COVID-19 epidemic trend and estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies in the mainland of China. Methods According to the COVID-19 epidemic status, we constructed a compartmental model. Based on reported data from the National Health Commission of People’s Republic of China during January 10–February 17, 2020, we estimated the model parameters. We then predicted the epidemic trend and transmission risk of COVID-19. Using a sensitivity analysis method, we estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies. Results The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the mainland of China will be 86 763 (95% CI: 86 067–87 460) on May 2, 2020. Up until March 15, 2020, the case fatality rate increased to 6.42% (95% CI: 6.16–6.68%). On February 23, 2020, the existing confirmed cases reached its peak, with 60 890 cases (95% CI: 60 350–61 431). On January 23, 2020, the effective reproduction number was 2.620 (95% CI: 2.567–2.676) and had dropped below 1.0 since February 5, 2020. Due to governmental intervention, the total number of confirmed cases was reduced by 99.85% on May 2, 2020. Had the isolation been relaxed from February 24, 2020, there might have been a second peak of infection. However, relaxing the isolation after March 16, 2020 greatly reduced the number of existing confirmed cases and deaths. The total number of confirmed cases and deaths would increase by 8.72 and 9.44%, respectively, due to a 1-day delayed diagnosis in non-isolated infected patients. Moreover, if the coverage of close contact tracing was increased to 100%, the cumulative number of confirmed cases would be decreased by 88.26% on May 2, 2020. Conclusions The quarantine measures adopted by the Chinese government since January 23, 2020 were necessary and effective. Postponing the relaxation of isolation, early diagnosis, patient isolation, broad close-contact tracing, and strict monitoring of infected persons could effectively control the COVID-19 epidemic. April 1, 2020 would be a reasonable date to lift quarantine in Hubei and Wuhan. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T16:24:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c32a732cc45043069c54174266022750 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2049-9957 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T16:24:31Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Diseases of Poverty |
| spelling | doaj.art-c32a732cc45043069c541742660227502022-12-22T00:58:45ZengBMCInfectious Diseases of Poverty2049-99572020-07-019111410.1186/s40249-020-00709-zTransmission patterns of COVID-19 in the mainland of China and the efficacy of different control strategies: a data- and model-driven studyJian Zu0Miao-Lei Li1Zong-Fang Li2Ming-Wang Shen3Yan-Ni Xiao4Fan-Pu Ji5School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an Jiaotong UniversitySchool of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityNational & Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Biodiagnosis and Biotherapy, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversitySchool of Public Health, Health Science Center, Xi’an Jiaotong UniversitySchool of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityNational & Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Biodiagnosis and Biotherapy, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityAbstract Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has seriously endangered the health and lives of Chinese people. In this study, we predicted the COVID-19 epidemic trend and estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies in the mainland of China. Methods According to the COVID-19 epidemic status, we constructed a compartmental model. Based on reported data from the National Health Commission of People’s Republic of China during January 10–February 17, 2020, we estimated the model parameters. We then predicted the epidemic trend and transmission risk of COVID-19. Using a sensitivity analysis method, we estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies. Results The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the mainland of China will be 86 763 (95% CI: 86 067–87 460) on May 2, 2020. Up until March 15, 2020, the case fatality rate increased to 6.42% (95% CI: 6.16–6.68%). On February 23, 2020, the existing confirmed cases reached its peak, with 60 890 cases (95% CI: 60 350–61 431). On January 23, 2020, the effective reproduction number was 2.620 (95% CI: 2.567–2.676) and had dropped below 1.0 since February 5, 2020. Due to governmental intervention, the total number of confirmed cases was reduced by 99.85% on May 2, 2020. Had the isolation been relaxed from February 24, 2020, there might have been a second peak of infection. However, relaxing the isolation after March 16, 2020 greatly reduced the number of existing confirmed cases and deaths. The total number of confirmed cases and deaths would increase by 8.72 and 9.44%, respectively, due to a 1-day delayed diagnosis in non-isolated infected patients. Moreover, if the coverage of close contact tracing was increased to 100%, the cumulative number of confirmed cases would be decreased by 88.26% on May 2, 2020. Conclusions The quarantine measures adopted by the Chinese government since January 23, 2020 were necessary and effective. Postponing the relaxation of isolation, early diagnosis, patient isolation, broad close-contact tracing, and strict monitoring of infected persons could effectively control the COVID-19 epidemic. April 1, 2020 would be a reasonable date to lift quarantine in Hubei and Wuhan.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40249-020-00709-zSARS-CoV-2COVID-19Transmission dynamicsPrevalenceEffective reproduction numberIntervention strategy |
| spellingShingle | Jian Zu Miao-Lei Li Zong-Fang Li Ming-Wang Shen Yan-Ni Xiao Fan-Pu Ji Transmission patterns of COVID-19 in the mainland of China and the efficacy of different control strategies: a data- and model-driven study Infectious Diseases of Poverty SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 Transmission dynamics Prevalence Effective reproduction number Intervention strategy |
| title | Transmission patterns of COVID-19 in the mainland of China and the efficacy of different control strategies: a data- and model-driven study |
| title_full | Transmission patterns of COVID-19 in the mainland of China and the efficacy of different control strategies: a data- and model-driven study |
| title_fullStr | Transmission patterns of COVID-19 in the mainland of China and the efficacy of different control strategies: a data- and model-driven study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Transmission patterns of COVID-19 in the mainland of China and the efficacy of different control strategies: a data- and model-driven study |
| title_short | Transmission patterns of COVID-19 in the mainland of China and the efficacy of different control strategies: a data- and model-driven study |
| title_sort | transmission patterns of covid 19 in the mainland of china and the efficacy of different control strategies a data and model driven study |
| topic | SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 Transmission dynamics Prevalence Effective reproduction number Intervention strategy |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40249-020-00709-z |
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