Social Contacts and Transmission of COVID-19 in British Columbia, Canada
BackgroundClose-contact rates are thought to be a driving force behind the transmission of many infectious respiratory diseases. Yet, contact rates and their relation to transmission and the impact of control measures, are seldom quantified. We quantify the response of contact rates, reported cases...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.867425/full |
| _version_ | 1818572119193157632 |
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| author | Notice Ringa Notice Ringa Sarafa A. Iyaniwura Sarafa A. Iyaniwura Samara David Mike A. Irvine Mike A. Irvine Prince Adu Prince Adu Michelle Spencer Naveed Z. Janjua Naveed Z. Janjua Michael C. Otterstatter Michael C. Otterstatter |
| author_facet | Notice Ringa Notice Ringa Sarafa A. Iyaniwura Sarafa A. Iyaniwura Samara David Mike A. Irvine Mike A. Irvine Prince Adu Prince Adu Michelle Spencer Naveed Z. Janjua Naveed Z. Janjua Michael C. Otterstatter Michael C. Otterstatter |
| author_sort | Notice Ringa |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundClose-contact rates are thought to be a driving force behind the transmission of many infectious respiratory diseases. Yet, contact rates and their relation to transmission and the impact of control measures, are seldom quantified. We quantify the response of contact rates, reported cases and transmission of COVID-19, to public health contact-restriction orders, and examine the associations among these three variables in the province of British Columbia, Canada.MethodsWe derived time series data for contact rates, daily cases and transmission of COVID-19 from a social contacts survey, reported case counts and by fitting a transmission model to reported cases, respectively. We used segmented regression to investigate impacts of public health orders; Pearson correlation to determine associations between contact rates and transmission; and vector autoregressive modeling to quantify lagged associations between contacts rates, daily cases, and transmission.ResultsDeclines in contact rates and transmission occurred concurrently with the announcement of public health orders, whereas declines in cases showed a reporting delay of about 2 weeks. Contact rates were a significant driver of COVID-19 and explained roughly 19 and 20% of the variation in new cases and transmission, respectively. Interestingly, increases in COVID-19 transmission and cases were followed by reduced contact rates: overall, daily cases explained about 10% of the variation in subsequent contact rates.ConclusionWe showed that close-contact rates were a significant time-series driver of transmission and ultimately of reported cases of COVID-19 in British Columbia, Canada and that they varied in response to public health orders. Our results also suggest possible behavioral feedback, by which increased reported cases lead to reduced subsequent contact rates. Our findings help to explain and validate the commonly assumed, but rarely measured, response of close contact rates to public health guidelines and their impact on the dynamics of infectious diseases. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T18:53:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c3664e598e7c489988428f98cc92e327 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T18:53:03Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-c3664e598e7c489988428f98cc92e3272022-12-21T22:51:11ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652022-05-011010.3389/fpubh.2022.867425867425Social Contacts and Transmission of COVID-19 in British Columbia, CanadaNotice Ringa0Notice Ringa1Sarafa A. Iyaniwura2Sarafa A. Iyaniwura3Samara David4Mike A. Irvine5Mike A. Irvine6Prince Adu7Prince Adu8Michelle Spencer9Naveed Z. Janjua10Naveed Z. Janjua11Michael C. Otterstatter12Michael C. Otterstatter13Data and Analytic Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, BC, CanadaSchool of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, CanadaData and Analytic Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, BC, CanadaDepartment of Mathematics, Institute of Applied Mathematics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, CanadaData and Analytic Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, BC, CanadaData and Analytic Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, BC, CanadaFaculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, CanadaData and Analytic Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, BC, CanadaSchool of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, CanadaData and Analytic Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, BC, CanadaData and Analytic Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, BC, CanadaSchool of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, CanadaData and Analytic Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, BC, CanadaSchool of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, CanadaBackgroundClose-contact rates are thought to be a driving force behind the transmission of many infectious respiratory diseases. Yet, contact rates and their relation to transmission and the impact of control measures, are seldom quantified. We quantify the response of contact rates, reported cases and transmission of COVID-19, to public health contact-restriction orders, and examine the associations among these three variables in the province of British Columbia, Canada.MethodsWe derived time series data for contact rates, daily cases and transmission of COVID-19 from a social contacts survey, reported case counts and by fitting a transmission model to reported cases, respectively. We used segmented regression to investigate impacts of public health orders; Pearson correlation to determine associations between contact rates and transmission; and vector autoregressive modeling to quantify lagged associations between contacts rates, daily cases, and transmission.ResultsDeclines in contact rates and transmission occurred concurrently with the announcement of public health orders, whereas declines in cases showed a reporting delay of about 2 weeks. Contact rates were a significant driver of COVID-19 and explained roughly 19 and 20% of the variation in new cases and transmission, respectively. Interestingly, increases in COVID-19 transmission and cases were followed by reduced contact rates: overall, daily cases explained about 10% of the variation in subsequent contact rates.ConclusionWe showed that close-contact rates were a significant time-series driver of transmission and ultimately of reported cases of COVID-19 in British Columbia, Canada and that they varied in response to public health orders. Our results also suggest possible behavioral feedback, by which increased reported cases lead to reduced subsequent contact rates. Our findings help to explain and validate the commonly assumed, but rarely measured, response of close contact rates to public health guidelines and their impact on the dynamics of infectious diseases.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.867425/fullsocial contactsCOVID-19transmission controlcorrelationregression |
| spellingShingle | Notice Ringa Notice Ringa Sarafa A. Iyaniwura Sarafa A. Iyaniwura Samara David Mike A. Irvine Mike A. Irvine Prince Adu Prince Adu Michelle Spencer Naveed Z. Janjua Naveed Z. Janjua Michael C. Otterstatter Michael C. Otterstatter Social Contacts and Transmission of COVID-19 in British Columbia, Canada Frontiers in Public Health social contacts COVID-19 transmission control correlation regression |
| title | Social Contacts and Transmission of COVID-19 in British Columbia, Canada |
| title_full | Social Contacts and Transmission of COVID-19 in British Columbia, Canada |
| title_fullStr | Social Contacts and Transmission of COVID-19 in British Columbia, Canada |
| title_full_unstemmed | Social Contacts and Transmission of COVID-19 in British Columbia, Canada |
| title_short | Social Contacts and Transmission of COVID-19 in British Columbia, Canada |
| title_sort | social contacts and transmission of covid 19 in british columbia canada |
| topic | social contacts COVID-19 transmission control correlation regression |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.867425/full |
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