Production-induced seismicity indicates a low risk of strong earthquakes in the Groningen gas field
Abstract The maximum possible earthquake related to gas production in Western Europe’s largest gas field, Groningen, Netherlands, is an urgent practical question. Here we show how to distinguish between induced and triggered tectonic earthquakes. We estimate the maximum possible induced magnitude in...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44485-4 |
| _version_ | 1797363117298024448 |
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| author | Nepomuk Boitz Cornelius Langenbruch Serge A. Shapiro |
| author_facet | Nepomuk Boitz Cornelius Langenbruch Serge A. Shapiro |
| author_sort | Nepomuk Boitz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The maximum possible earthquake related to gas production in Western Europe’s largest gas field, Groningen, Netherlands, is an urgent practical question. Here we show how to distinguish between induced and triggered tectonic earthquakes. We estimate the maximum possible induced magnitude in the Groningen gas field to be around M w = 4. We extend the concept of the seismogenic index to gas-production, and calculate the worst-case probability of triggering a larger-magnitude tectonic earthquake in a continuum. The probability of a M w 5.5 earthquake at Groningen is significantly higher than at Pohang Geothermal System (South Korea), where a M w 5.5 earthquake was actually triggered. Due to a long history of production in Groningen, our model estimates that strong earthquakes (M w ≥ 4) must have occurred there several times, in disagreement with the observations. This indicates that the Groningen gas field is inherently stable and the physical conditions to trigger large tectonic earthquakes likely do not exist. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T16:16:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c3b20cfa42394f30a2ac44fb34adaa7e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T16:16:42Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-c3b20cfa42394f30a2ac44fb34adaa7e2024-01-07T12:34:24ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232024-01-0115111010.1038/s41467-023-44485-4Production-induced seismicity indicates a low risk of strong earthquakes in the Groningen gas fieldNepomuk Boitz0Cornelius Langenbruch1Serge A. Shapiro2Earth Science Department, Freie Universität BerlinEarth Science Department, Freie Universität BerlinEarth Science Department, Freie Universität BerlinAbstract The maximum possible earthquake related to gas production in Western Europe’s largest gas field, Groningen, Netherlands, is an urgent practical question. Here we show how to distinguish between induced and triggered tectonic earthquakes. We estimate the maximum possible induced magnitude in the Groningen gas field to be around M w = 4. We extend the concept of the seismogenic index to gas-production, and calculate the worst-case probability of triggering a larger-magnitude tectonic earthquake in a continuum. The probability of a M w 5.5 earthquake at Groningen is significantly higher than at Pohang Geothermal System (South Korea), where a M w 5.5 earthquake was actually triggered. Due to a long history of production in Groningen, our model estimates that strong earthquakes (M w ≥ 4) must have occurred there several times, in disagreement with the observations. This indicates that the Groningen gas field is inherently stable and the physical conditions to trigger large tectonic earthquakes likely do not exist.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44485-4 |
| spellingShingle | Nepomuk Boitz Cornelius Langenbruch Serge A. Shapiro Production-induced seismicity indicates a low risk of strong earthquakes in the Groningen gas field Nature Communications |
| title | Production-induced seismicity indicates a low risk of strong earthquakes in the Groningen gas field |
| title_full | Production-induced seismicity indicates a low risk of strong earthquakes in the Groningen gas field |
| title_fullStr | Production-induced seismicity indicates a low risk of strong earthquakes in the Groningen gas field |
| title_full_unstemmed | Production-induced seismicity indicates a low risk of strong earthquakes in the Groningen gas field |
| title_short | Production-induced seismicity indicates a low risk of strong earthquakes in the Groningen gas field |
| title_sort | production induced seismicity indicates a low risk of strong earthquakes in the groningen gas field |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44485-4 |
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