Potential geographical distribution of Stipa purpurea across the Tibetan Plateau in China under climate change in the 21st century
Stipa purpurea (S. purpurea), a dominant herbage resource in alpine steppe, has an important impact on animal husbandry and the maintenance of natural environmental stability in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). As a hot spot of global warming, the TP has been greatly affected by climate change. Based on th...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Global Ecology and Conservation |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S235198942200066X |
| _version_ | 1811333027055271936 |
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| author | Qianqian Ma Xiangyi Li Shixin Wu Fanjiang Zeng |
| author_facet | Qianqian Ma Xiangyi Li Shixin Wu Fanjiang Zeng |
| author_sort | Qianqian Ma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Stipa purpurea (S. purpurea), a dominant herbage resource in alpine steppe, has an important impact on animal husbandry and the maintenance of natural environmental stability in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). As a hot spot of global warming, the TP has been greatly affected by climate change. Based on the MaxEnt model, we simulated the potential habitat changes of S. purpurea on the TP in the 21st century using 197 distribution records combined with current (2000–2018) and future (2021–2100) climate data. We also analyzed the critical factors influencing habitat distribution and driving habitat change. The results showed that the MaxEnt model performed well, with the area under the curve (AUC) value of training data and test data being 0.845 and 0.722, respectively. Annual precipitation, elevation, and annual average temperature were identified as the most critical environmental factors shaping the potential distribution of S. purpurea, and temperature was identified as the most critical factor driving S. purpurea habitat change. Under the current climate, the potential habitat area of S. purpurea was 55.15 × 104 km2, mainly distributed in the Eastern Qinghai-Qilian montane steppe, Southern Tibet montane shrub-steppe, and Ngari montane desert. By the end of the 21st century, the potential habitat area of S. purpurea showed an overall increasing trend, under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) was 87.37 × 104 km2 and 57.80 × 104 km2, respectively. A comparison of warming scenarios indicated that warming had a positive effect on the distribution of S. purpurea within a certain temperature range, but continued warming would limit distribution ranges. In response to climate warming in the 21st century, potential habitats of S. purpurea will shift northwestward and to higher altitudes. These results will provide a reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies on the TP and similar regions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T16:45:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c4069e2618ec4b5ba3354eec0513b432 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2351-9894 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T16:45:53Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Global Ecology and Conservation |
| spelling | doaj.art-c4069e2618ec4b5ba3354eec0513b4322022-12-22T02:39:05ZengElsevierGlobal Ecology and Conservation2351-98942022-06-0135e02064Potential geographical distribution of Stipa purpurea across the Tibetan Plateau in China under climate change in the 21st centuryQianqian Ma0Xiangyi Li1Shixin Wu2Fanjiang Zeng3State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert Grassland Ecosystems, Cele, 848300 Xinjiang, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Plant Roots Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert Grassland Ecosystems, Cele, 848300 Xinjiang, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Plant Roots Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Corresponding authors at: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China.State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert Grassland Ecosystems, Cele, 848300 Xinjiang, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Plant Roots Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Corresponding authors at: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China.State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert Grassland Ecosystems, Cele, 848300 Xinjiang, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Plant Roots Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaStipa purpurea (S. purpurea), a dominant herbage resource in alpine steppe, has an important impact on animal husbandry and the maintenance of natural environmental stability in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). As a hot spot of global warming, the TP has been greatly affected by climate change. Based on the MaxEnt model, we simulated the potential habitat changes of S. purpurea on the TP in the 21st century using 197 distribution records combined with current (2000–2018) and future (2021–2100) climate data. We also analyzed the critical factors influencing habitat distribution and driving habitat change. The results showed that the MaxEnt model performed well, with the area under the curve (AUC) value of training data and test data being 0.845 and 0.722, respectively. Annual precipitation, elevation, and annual average temperature were identified as the most critical environmental factors shaping the potential distribution of S. purpurea, and temperature was identified as the most critical factor driving S. purpurea habitat change. Under the current climate, the potential habitat area of S. purpurea was 55.15 × 104 km2, mainly distributed in the Eastern Qinghai-Qilian montane steppe, Southern Tibet montane shrub-steppe, and Ngari montane desert. By the end of the 21st century, the potential habitat area of S. purpurea showed an overall increasing trend, under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) was 87.37 × 104 km2 and 57.80 × 104 km2, respectively. A comparison of warming scenarios indicated that warming had a positive effect on the distribution of S. purpurea within a certain temperature range, but continued warming would limit distribution ranges. In response to climate warming in the 21st century, potential habitats of S. purpurea will shift northwestward and to higher altitudes. These results will provide a reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies on the TP and similar regions.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S235198942200066XMaxEntBioVarsGlobal warmingClimate changeHabitat shifts |
| spellingShingle | Qianqian Ma Xiangyi Li Shixin Wu Fanjiang Zeng Potential geographical distribution of Stipa purpurea across the Tibetan Plateau in China under climate change in the 21st century Global Ecology and Conservation MaxEnt BioVars Global warming Climate change Habitat shifts |
| title | Potential geographical distribution of Stipa purpurea across the Tibetan Plateau in China under climate change in the 21st century |
| title_full | Potential geographical distribution of Stipa purpurea across the Tibetan Plateau in China under climate change in the 21st century |
| title_fullStr | Potential geographical distribution of Stipa purpurea across the Tibetan Plateau in China under climate change in the 21st century |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential geographical distribution of Stipa purpurea across the Tibetan Plateau in China under climate change in the 21st century |
| title_short | Potential geographical distribution of Stipa purpurea across the Tibetan Plateau in China under climate change in the 21st century |
| title_sort | potential geographical distribution of stipa purpurea across the tibetan plateau in china under climate change in the 21st century |
| topic | MaxEnt BioVars Global warming Climate change Habitat shifts |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S235198942200066X |
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