Quantifying excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in The Gambia: a time-series analysis of three health and demographic surveillance systems
ABSTRACT: Objectives: Estimates for COVID-19-related excess mortality for African populations using local data are needed to design and implement effective control policies. Methods: We applied time-series analysis using data from three health and demographic surveillance systems in The Gambia (Bas...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-03-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971222006543 |
| _version_ | 1797897324730515456 |
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| author | Nuredin I. Mohammed Grant Mackenzie Esu Ezeani Mamadi Sidibeh Lamin Jammeh Golam Sarwar Aji Kumba Folawiyo Saine Bakary Sonko Pierre Gomez Bai Lamin Dondeh M. Jahangir Hossain Momodou Jasseh Effua Usuf Andrew M. Prentice David Jeffries Umberto Dalessandro Anna Roca |
| author_facet | Nuredin I. Mohammed Grant Mackenzie Esu Ezeani Mamadi Sidibeh Lamin Jammeh Golam Sarwar Aji Kumba Folawiyo Saine Bakary Sonko Pierre Gomez Bai Lamin Dondeh M. Jahangir Hossain Momodou Jasseh Effua Usuf Andrew M. Prentice David Jeffries Umberto Dalessandro Anna Roca |
| author_sort | Nuredin I. Mohammed |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT: Objectives: Estimates for COVID-19-related excess mortality for African populations using local data are needed to design and implement effective control policies. Methods: We applied time-series analysis using data from three health and demographic surveillance systems in The Gambia (Basse, Farafenni, and Keneba) to examine pandemic-related excess mortality during 2020, when the first SARS-CoV-2 wave was observed, compared to the pre-pandemic period (2016-2019). Results: Across the three sites, average mortality during the pre-pandemic period and the total deaths during 2020 were 1512 and 1634, respectively (Basse: 1099 vs 1179, Farafenni: 316 vs 351, Keneba: 98 vs 104). The overall annual crude mortality rates per 100,000 (95% CI) were 589 (559, 619) and 599 (571, 629) for the pre-pandemic and 2020 periods, respectively. The adjusted excess mortality rate was 8.8 (-34.3, 67.6) per 100,000 person-month with the adjusted rate ratio (aRR) = 1.01 (0.94,1.11). The age-stratified analysis showed excess mortality in Basse for infants (aRR = 1.22 [1.04, 1.46]) and in Farafenni for the 65+ years age group (aRR = 1.19 [1, 1.44]). Conclusion: We did not find significant excess overall mortality in 2020 in The Gambia. However, some age groups may have been at risk of excess death. Public health response in countries with weak health systems needs to consider vulnerable age groups and the potential for collateral damage. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T07:56:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c41ff805901f4344b8bea34bd451e74c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1201-9712 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T07:56:47Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-c41ff805901f4344b8bea34bd451e74c2023-02-23T04:30:19ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases1201-97122023-03-011286168Quantifying excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in The Gambia: a time-series analysis of three health and demographic surveillance systemsNuredin I. Mohammed0Grant Mackenzie1Esu Ezeani2Mamadi Sidibeh3Lamin Jammeh4Golam Sarwar5Aji Kumba Folawiyo Saine6Bakary Sonko7Pierre Gomez8Bai Lamin Dondeh9M. Jahangir Hossain10Momodou Jasseh11Effua Usuf12Andrew M. Prentice13David Jeffries14Umberto Dalessandro15Anna Roca16Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia; Corresponding authors.Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia; Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Melbourne, AustraliaMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The GambiaMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The GambiaMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The GambiaMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The GambiaMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The GambiaMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The GambiaMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The GambiaMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The GambiaMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The GambiaMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The GambiaMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The GambiaMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The GambiaMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The GambiaMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The GambiaMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia; Corresponding authors.ABSTRACT: Objectives: Estimates for COVID-19-related excess mortality for African populations using local data are needed to design and implement effective control policies. Methods: We applied time-series analysis using data from three health and demographic surveillance systems in The Gambia (Basse, Farafenni, and Keneba) to examine pandemic-related excess mortality during 2020, when the first SARS-CoV-2 wave was observed, compared to the pre-pandemic period (2016-2019). Results: Across the three sites, average mortality during the pre-pandemic period and the total deaths during 2020 were 1512 and 1634, respectively (Basse: 1099 vs 1179, Farafenni: 316 vs 351, Keneba: 98 vs 104). The overall annual crude mortality rates per 100,000 (95% CI) were 589 (559, 619) and 599 (571, 629) for the pre-pandemic and 2020 periods, respectively. The adjusted excess mortality rate was 8.8 (-34.3, 67.6) per 100,000 person-month with the adjusted rate ratio (aRR) = 1.01 (0.94,1.11). The age-stratified analysis showed excess mortality in Basse for infants (aRR = 1.22 [1.04, 1.46]) and in Farafenni for the 65+ years age group (aRR = 1.19 [1, 1.44]). Conclusion: We did not find significant excess overall mortality in 2020 in The Gambia. However, some age groups may have been at risk of excess death. Public health response in countries with weak health systems needs to consider vulnerable age groups and the potential for collateral damage.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971222006543Excess mortalityHealth and demographic surveillance systemsCOVID-19AfricaThe Gambia |
| spellingShingle | Nuredin I. Mohammed Grant Mackenzie Esu Ezeani Mamadi Sidibeh Lamin Jammeh Golam Sarwar Aji Kumba Folawiyo Saine Bakary Sonko Pierre Gomez Bai Lamin Dondeh M. Jahangir Hossain Momodou Jasseh Effua Usuf Andrew M. Prentice David Jeffries Umberto Dalessandro Anna Roca Quantifying excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in The Gambia: a time-series analysis of three health and demographic surveillance systems International Journal of Infectious Diseases Excess mortality Health and demographic surveillance systems COVID-19 Africa The Gambia |
| title | Quantifying excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in The Gambia: a time-series analysis of three health and demographic surveillance systems |
| title_full | Quantifying excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in The Gambia: a time-series analysis of three health and demographic surveillance systems |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in The Gambia: a time-series analysis of three health and demographic surveillance systems |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in The Gambia: a time-series analysis of three health and demographic surveillance systems |
| title_short | Quantifying excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in The Gambia: a time-series analysis of three health and demographic surveillance systems |
| title_sort | quantifying excess mortality during the covid 19 pandemic in 2020 in the gambia a time series analysis of three health and demographic surveillance systems |
| topic | Excess mortality Health and demographic surveillance systems COVID-19 Africa The Gambia |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971222006543 |
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