The trends of disease burden due to high temperature in Mainland China from 1990 to 2019 and its prediction to 2030
Abstract The risk of high-temperature-related diseases is increasing owing to global warming. This study aimed to assess the trend of disease burden caused by high temperatures in Mainland China from 1990 to 2019 and to predict the trend of disease burden over the next 10 years. The latest data were...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-49491-6 |
| _version_ | 1797388431066660864 |
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| author | Jiaolong Zheng Haiyan Lin Jingyi Ling Jiaofeng Huang Dongliang Li |
| author_facet | Jiaolong Zheng Haiyan Lin Jingyi Ling Jiaofeng Huang Dongliang Li |
| author_sort | Jiaolong Zheng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The risk of high-temperature-related diseases is increasing owing to global warming. This study aimed to assess the trend of disease burden caused by high temperatures in Mainland China from 1990 to 2019 and to predict the trend of disease burden over the next 10 years. The latest data were downloaded from the Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD) for analysis, and the disease burden related to high temperature was described by mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and stratified by etiology, sex, and age. Statistical analyses were performed using the R software. In 2019, there were 13,907 deaths attributed to high temperatures in Mainland China, and this was 29.55% higher than the 10,735 deaths in 1990. Overall, the age-standardized mortality and DALYs attributed to high temperatures showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019. We observed an etiological shift in high-temperature-related diseases. The age-standardized DALYs contribution attributed to high temperatures in 1990 was mainly from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNND) (21.81/100,000), followed by injury (18.30/100,000) and non-communicable diseases (10.40/100,000). In 2019, the largest contribution shifted to non-communicable diseases (10.07/100,000), followed by injuries (5.21/100,000), and CMNND (2.30/100,000). The disease burden attributed to high temperatures was higher in males than in females and increased with age. In 2030, the mortality rate and DALYs due to high temperatures are predicted to decrease further, and the largest contribution will come from chronic non-communicable diseases, the occurrence of which will remain at a high level over the next 10 years. The burden of disease due to high temperatures in Mainland China is still heavy, mainly due to population aging and an increase in non-communicable diseases. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T22:40:45Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c427dd9dc35c4b28a7194962780ac623 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T22:40:45Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-c427dd9dc35c4b28a7194962780ac6232023-12-17T12:13:45ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-12-0113111110.1038/s41598-023-49491-6The trends of disease burden due to high temperature in Mainland China from 1990 to 2019 and its prediction to 2030Jiaolong Zheng0Haiyan Lin1Jingyi Ling2Jiaofeng Huang3Dongliang Li4Department of Hepatobiliary Disease, The 900th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support ForceDepartment of Hepatobiliary Disease, The 900th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support ForceDepartment of Hepatobiliary Disease, The 900th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support ForceDepartment of Hepatology, Hepatology Research Institute, The First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical UniversityDepartment of Hepatobiliary Disease, The 900th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support ForceAbstract The risk of high-temperature-related diseases is increasing owing to global warming. This study aimed to assess the trend of disease burden caused by high temperatures in Mainland China from 1990 to 2019 and to predict the trend of disease burden over the next 10 years. The latest data were downloaded from the Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD) for analysis, and the disease burden related to high temperature was described by mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and stratified by etiology, sex, and age. Statistical analyses were performed using the R software. In 2019, there were 13,907 deaths attributed to high temperatures in Mainland China, and this was 29.55% higher than the 10,735 deaths in 1990. Overall, the age-standardized mortality and DALYs attributed to high temperatures showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019. We observed an etiological shift in high-temperature-related diseases. The age-standardized DALYs contribution attributed to high temperatures in 1990 was mainly from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNND) (21.81/100,000), followed by injury (18.30/100,000) and non-communicable diseases (10.40/100,000). In 2019, the largest contribution shifted to non-communicable diseases (10.07/100,000), followed by injuries (5.21/100,000), and CMNND (2.30/100,000). The disease burden attributed to high temperatures was higher in males than in females and increased with age. In 2030, the mortality rate and DALYs due to high temperatures are predicted to decrease further, and the largest contribution will come from chronic non-communicable diseases, the occurrence of which will remain at a high level over the next 10 years. The burden of disease due to high temperatures in Mainland China is still heavy, mainly due to population aging and an increase in non-communicable diseases.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-49491-6 |
| spellingShingle | Jiaolong Zheng Haiyan Lin Jingyi Ling Jiaofeng Huang Dongliang Li The trends of disease burden due to high temperature in Mainland China from 1990 to 2019 and its prediction to 2030 Scientific Reports |
| title | The trends of disease burden due to high temperature in Mainland China from 1990 to 2019 and its prediction to 2030 |
| title_full | The trends of disease burden due to high temperature in Mainland China from 1990 to 2019 and its prediction to 2030 |
| title_fullStr | The trends of disease burden due to high temperature in Mainland China from 1990 to 2019 and its prediction to 2030 |
| title_full_unstemmed | The trends of disease burden due to high temperature in Mainland China from 1990 to 2019 and its prediction to 2030 |
| title_short | The trends of disease burden due to high temperature in Mainland China from 1990 to 2019 and its prediction to 2030 |
| title_sort | trends of disease burden due to high temperature in mainland china from 1990 to 2019 and its prediction to 2030 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-49491-6 |
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