Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The durations of untreated stage 1 (early stage, haemo-lymphatic) and stage 2 (late stage, meningo-encephalitic) human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) due to <it>Trypanosoma brucei gambiense </it>are poorly qu...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2008-02-01
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| Series: | BMC Infectious Diseases |
| Online Access: | http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2334/8/16 |
| _version_ | 1811295371336351744 |
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| author | Chandramohan Daniel Haydon Daniel T Filipe João AN Checchi Francesco Chappuis François |
| author_facet | Chandramohan Daniel Haydon Daniel T Filipe João AN Checchi Francesco Chappuis François |
| author_sort | Chandramohan Daniel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The durations of untreated stage 1 (early stage, haemo-lymphatic) and stage 2 (late stage, meningo-encephalitic) human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) due to <it>Trypanosoma brucei gambiense </it>are poorly quantified, but key to predicting the impact of screening on transmission. Here, we outline a method to estimate these parameters.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We first model the duration of stage 1 through survival analysis of untreated serological suspects detected during Médecins Sans Frontières interventions in Uganda and Sudan. We then deduce the duration of stage 2 based on the stage 1 to stage 2 ratio observed during active case detection in villages within the same sites.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Survival in stage 1 appears to decay exponentially (daily rate = 0.0019; mean stage 1 duration = 526 days [95%CI 357 to 833]), possibly explaining past reports of abnormally long duration. Assuming epidemiological equilibrium, we estimate a similar duration of stage 2 (500 days [95%CI 345 to 769]), for a total of nearly three years in the absence of treatment.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Robust estimates of these basic epidemiological parameters are essential to formulating a quantitative understanding of sleeping sickness dynamics, and will facilitate the evaluation of different possible control strategies.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T05:31:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c4420cb9b4a74374b125d4be149f17a9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2334 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T05:31:30Z |
| publishDate | 2008-02-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-c4420cb9b4a74374b125d4be149f17a92022-12-22T03:00:25ZengBMCBMC Infectious Diseases1471-23342008-02-01811610.1186/1471-2334-8-16Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sicknessChandramohan DanielHaydon Daniel TFilipe João ANChecchi FrancescoChappuis François<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The durations of untreated stage 1 (early stage, haemo-lymphatic) and stage 2 (late stage, meningo-encephalitic) human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) due to <it>Trypanosoma brucei gambiense </it>are poorly quantified, but key to predicting the impact of screening on transmission. Here, we outline a method to estimate these parameters.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We first model the duration of stage 1 through survival analysis of untreated serological suspects detected during Médecins Sans Frontières interventions in Uganda and Sudan. We then deduce the duration of stage 2 based on the stage 1 to stage 2 ratio observed during active case detection in villages within the same sites.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Survival in stage 1 appears to decay exponentially (daily rate = 0.0019; mean stage 1 duration = 526 days [95%CI 357 to 833]), possibly explaining past reports of abnormally long duration. Assuming epidemiological equilibrium, we estimate a similar duration of stage 2 (500 days [95%CI 345 to 769]), for a total of nearly three years in the absence of treatment.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Robust estimates of these basic epidemiological parameters are essential to formulating a quantitative understanding of sleeping sickness dynamics, and will facilitate the evaluation of different possible control strategies.</p>http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2334/8/16 |
| spellingShingle | Chandramohan Daniel Haydon Daniel T Filipe João AN Checchi Francesco Chappuis François Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness BMC Infectious Diseases |
| title | Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness |
| title_full | Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness |
| title_fullStr | Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness |
| title_short | Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness |
| title_sort | estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness |
| url | http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2334/8/16 |
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