Changes in flooding in the alpine catchments of the Tarim River Basin, Central Asia
Abstract Floods are one of the most affective climate‐related disasters, and climate change has altered their intensity and frequency worldwide. This study examined long‐term changes in flood characteristics (including magnitude, frequency, and timing) in 30 alpine headwaters of the large endorheic...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2023-03-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Flood Risk Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12869 |
| _version_ | 1828033673671213056 |
|---|---|
| author | Gonghuan Fang Zhi Li Jing Yang Yaning Chen Weili Duan Charles Amory Yunqian Wang |
| author_facet | Gonghuan Fang Zhi Li Jing Yang Yaning Chen Weili Duan Charles Amory Yunqian Wang |
| author_sort | Gonghuan Fang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Floods are one of the most affective climate‐related disasters, and climate change has altered their intensity and frequency worldwide. This study examined long‐term changes in flood characteristics (including magnitude, frequency, and timing) in 30 alpine headwaters of the large endorheic Tarim River Basin, Central Asia. The contributions of climatic factors to flood (magnitude and timing) changes were investigated using numerical experiments in combination with the random forest approach. The following results were obtained: (1) Annual maximum flood peaks increased at most stations (89% stations) during 1961–2015 with increased flood frequency. Earlier flood peaks were observed in spring with a rate of 1.38 day per decade; for other seasons, changes in the occurrence time of flood peaks showed strong spatial variability. (2) Precipitation was the dominant factor for the increased flood magnitude in most catchments of the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, and temperature played a greater role in the northern Kunlun Mountains. (3) For flood timing changes, melt level height and precipitation were the most influential factors in the alpine catchments in the Tarim River Basin. The results provide information on the spatiotemporal variations of floods and their driving factors in this alpine basin under climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T15:23:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c497e190087c43a2892b2860b9e0c870 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1753-318X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T15:23:00Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Flood Risk Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-c497e190087c43a2892b2860b9e0c8702023-02-14T12:22:52ZengWileyJournal of Flood Risk Management1753-318X2023-03-01161n/an/a10.1111/jfr3.12869Changes in flooding in the alpine catchments of the Tarim River Basin, Central AsiaGonghuan Fang0Zhi Li1Jing Yang2Yaning Chen3Weili Duan4Charles Amory5Yunqian Wang6State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaXinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone Urumqi ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaCNRS, Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement University Grenoble Alpes Grenoble FranceSchool of Geography and Tourism Qufu Normal University Rizhao ChinaAbstract Floods are one of the most affective climate‐related disasters, and climate change has altered their intensity and frequency worldwide. This study examined long‐term changes in flood characteristics (including magnitude, frequency, and timing) in 30 alpine headwaters of the large endorheic Tarim River Basin, Central Asia. The contributions of climatic factors to flood (magnitude and timing) changes were investigated using numerical experiments in combination with the random forest approach. The following results were obtained: (1) Annual maximum flood peaks increased at most stations (89% stations) during 1961–2015 with increased flood frequency. Earlier flood peaks were observed in spring with a rate of 1.38 day per decade; for other seasons, changes in the occurrence time of flood peaks showed strong spatial variability. (2) Precipitation was the dominant factor for the increased flood magnitude in most catchments of the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, and temperature played a greater role in the northern Kunlun Mountains. (3) For flood timing changes, melt level height and precipitation were the most influential factors in the alpine catchments in the Tarim River Basin. The results provide information on the spatiotemporal variations of floods and their driving factors in this alpine basin under climate change.https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12869attribution analysisfloodsnumerical experimentsrandom forestTarim River Basin |
| spellingShingle | Gonghuan Fang Zhi Li Jing Yang Yaning Chen Weili Duan Charles Amory Yunqian Wang Changes in flooding in the alpine catchments of the Tarim River Basin, Central Asia Journal of Flood Risk Management attribution analysis floods numerical experiments random forest Tarim River Basin |
| title | Changes in flooding in the alpine catchments of the Tarim River Basin, Central Asia |
| title_full | Changes in flooding in the alpine catchments of the Tarim River Basin, Central Asia |
| title_fullStr | Changes in flooding in the alpine catchments of the Tarim River Basin, Central Asia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changes in flooding in the alpine catchments of the Tarim River Basin, Central Asia |
| title_short | Changes in flooding in the alpine catchments of the Tarim River Basin, Central Asia |
| title_sort | changes in flooding in the alpine catchments of the tarim river basin central asia |
| topic | attribution analysis floods numerical experiments random forest Tarim River Basin |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12869 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gonghuanfang changesinfloodinginthealpinecatchmentsofthetarimriverbasincentralasia AT zhili changesinfloodinginthealpinecatchmentsofthetarimriverbasincentralasia AT jingyang changesinfloodinginthealpinecatchmentsofthetarimriverbasincentralasia AT yaningchen changesinfloodinginthealpinecatchmentsofthetarimriverbasincentralasia AT weiliduan changesinfloodinginthealpinecatchmentsofthetarimriverbasincentralasia AT charlesamory changesinfloodinginthealpinecatchmentsofthetarimriverbasincentralasia AT yunqianwang changesinfloodinginthealpinecatchmentsofthetarimriverbasincentralasia |