Assessment of the Regional and Sectoral Economic Impacts of Heat‐Related Changes in Labor Productivity Under Climate Change in China
Abstract Climate change leads to heat‐related changes in labor productivity, which have additional economic impacts. Based on a framework that considers the impacts evolving from climate change to labor productivity to economic impact, we estimate the changes in labor productivity for indoor and out...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2021-08-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002028 |
| _version_ | 1818001346576515072 |
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| author | Yuan Liu Zhengtao Zhang Xi Chen Chengfang Huang Feng Han Ning Li |
| author_facet | Yuan Liu Zhengtao Zhang Xi Chen Chengfang Huang Feng Han Ning Li |
| author_sort | Yuan Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change leads to heat‐related changes in labor productivity, which have additional economic impacts. Based on a framework that considers the impacts evolving from climate change to labor productivity to economic impact, we estimate the changes in labor productivity for indoor and outdoor activities and different work intensities at the grid level in China under a wide range of climatic and socioeconomic conditions and then evaluate the economic impacts in seven regions and eight sectors. The results show that (a) the negative impacts of labor productivity are concentrated in outdoor sectors, and the labor productivity of indoor sectors will decrease slightly or even increase due to high air‐conditioning device penetration rates under relatively optimistic scenarios. (b) The national results show that total economic impacts increase by 0.28%–0.61% of the GDP for each 1°C rise in the temperature, and the total economic impacts of labor productivity reductions in the most pessimistic scenario reach 1.15%–2.67% of the GDP in 2100. (c) The regional results indicate that the regions with lower labor productivity impacts (Northwest and Northeast China) still suffer large economic impacts, highlighting the importance of economic impact assessments across the regions. (b) The sectors in the seven regions of China that are most sensitive to climate change are agriculture and construction. The economic impacts in the manufacturing and service sectors, which contribute 22%–35% and 11%–15% of regional GDP losses, respectively, cannot be ignored, and should receive more attention in climate mitigation policies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T03:32:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c4c9805704eb4098900b7522c1e35863 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T03:32:18Z |
| publishDate | 2021-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-c4c9805704eb4098900b7522c1e358632022-12-22T02:14:54ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772021-08-0198n/an/a10.1029/2021EF002028Assessment of the Regional and Sectoral Economic Impacts of Heat‐Related Changes in Labor Productivity Under Climate Change in ChinaYuan Liu0Zhengtao Zhang1Xi Chen2Chengfang Huang3Feng Han4Ning Li5Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Ministry of Education Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Ministry of Education Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Ministry of Education Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Ministry of Education Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education and School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Nanjing ChinaKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Ministry of Education Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaAbstract Climate change leads to heat‐related changes in labor productivity, which have additional economic impacts. Based on a framework that considers the impacts evolving from climate change to labor productivity to economic impact, we estimate the changes in labor productivity for indoor and outdoor activities and different work intensities at the grid level in China under a wide range of climatic and socioeconomic conditions and then evaluate the economic impacts in seven regions and eight sectors. The results show that (a) the negative impacts of labor productivity are concentrated in outdoor sectors, and the labor productivity of indoor sectors will decrease slightly or even increase due to high air‐conditioning device penetration rates under relatively optimistic scenarios. (b) The national results show that total economic impacts increase by 0.28%–0.61% of the GDP for each 1°C rise in the temperature, and the total economic impacts of labor productivity reductions in the most pessimistic scenario reach 1.15%–2.67% of the GDP in 2100. (c) The regional results indicate that the regions with lower labor productivity impacts (Northwest and Northeast China) still suffer large economic impacts, highlighting the importance of economic impact assessments across the regions. (b) The sectors in the seven regions of China that are most sensitive to climate change are agriculture and construction. The economic impacts in the manufacturing and service sectors, which contribute 22%–35% and 11%–15% of regional GDP losses, respectively, cannot be ignored, and should receive more attention in climate mitigation policies.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002028 |
| spellingShingle | Yuan Liu Zhengtao Zhang Xi Chen Chengfang Huang Feng Han Ning Li Assessment of the Regional and Sectoral Economic Impacts of Heat‐Related Changes in Labor Productivity Under Climate Change in China Earth's Future |
| title | Assessment of the Regional and Sectoral Economic Impacts of Heat‐Related Changes in Labor Productivity Under Climate Change in China |
| title_full | Assessment of the Regional and Sectoral Economic Impacts of Heat‐Related Changes in Labor Productivity Under Climate Change in China |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of the Regional and Sectoral Economic Impacts of Heat‐Related Changes in Labor Productivity Under Climate Change in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of the Regional and Sectoral Economic Impacts of Heat‐Related Changes in Labor Productivity Under Climate Change in China |
| title_short | Assessment of the Regional and Sectoral Economic Impacts of Heat‐Related Changes in Labor Productivity Under Climate Change in China |
| title_sort | assessment of the regional and sectoral economic impacts of heat related changes in labor productivity under climate change in china |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002028 |
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