Estimates and uncertainties of return periods of extreme daily precipitation in Germany
For 1769 meteorological stations in Germany records of daily precipitation amounts with not more than one missing day are available for the period 1951 to 2000. We fit Gumbel distributions to annual maximum daily, two-day and three-day precipitation amounts. We show that the Gumbel distribution fits...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Borntraeger
2007-10-01
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| Series: | Meteorologische Zeitschrift |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2007/0235 |
| _version_ | 1827363515095056384 |
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| author | Jürgen Grieser Tim Staeger Christian-D. Schönwiese |
| author_facet | Jürgen Grieser Tim Staeger Christian-D. Schönwiese |
| author_sort | Jürgen Grieser |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | For 1769 meteorological stations in Germany records of daily precipitation amounts with not more than one missing day are available for the period 1951 to 2000. We fit Gumbel distributions to annual maximum daily, two-day and three-day precipitation amounts. We show that the Gumbel distribution fits very well to the observations and provide maps of best parameter estimates of the Gumbel distribution on a 0.0833° × 0.0833° grid (5 minutes grid, grid-cell size below 10 km). The regional structure of the estimated parameters reveals that the average extreme precipitation amount depends strongly on altitude while for most of the region the variability shows no such dependence. We furthermore provide an investigation of the uncertainty in the common estimation of the parameters. The results of this investigation are used in order to evaluate the reliability of estimated return periods and thresholds from observations. Precipitation thresholds attributed to certain return periods can be estimated accurately from observations even for large return periods. The estimates of return periods attributed to given thresholds of precipitation amounts, however, are much more prone to uncertainty. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T07:51:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c4cee1b949ad46f49df24314cd6b6b7c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0941-2948 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T07:51:14Z |
| publishDate | 2007-10-01 |
| publisher | Borntraeger |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Meteorologische Zeitschrift |
| spelling | doaj.art-c4cee1b949ad46f49df24314cd6b6b7c2024-02-02T14:47:12ZengBorntraegerMeteorologische Zeitschrift0941-29482007-10-0116555356410.1127/0941-2948/2007/023556044Estimates and uncertainties of return periods of extreme daily precipitation in GermanyJürgen GrieserTim StaegerChristian-D. SchönwieseFor 1769 meteorological stations in Germany records of daily precipitation amounts with not more than one missing day are available for the period 1951 to 2000. We fit Gumbel distributions to annual maximum daily, two-day and three-day precipitation amounts. We show that the Gumbel distribution fits very well to the observations and provide maps of best parameter estimates of the Gumbel distribution on a 0.0833° × 0.0833° grid (5 minutes grid, grid-cell size below 10 km). The regional structure of the estimated parameters reveals that the average extreme precipitation amount depends strongly on altitude while for most of the region the variability shows no such dependence. We furthermore provide an investigation of the uncertainty in the common estimation of the parameters. The results of this investigation are used in order to evaluate the reliability of estimated return periods and thresholds from observations. Precipitation thresholds attributed to certain return periods can be estimated accurately from observations even for large return periods. The estimates of return periods attributed to given thresholds of precipitation amounts, however, are much more prone to uncertainty.http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2007/0235 |
| spellingShingle | Jürgen Grieser Tim Staeger Christian-D. Schönwiese Estimates and uncertainties of return periods of extreme daily precipitation in Germany Meteorologische Zeitschrift |
| title | Estimates and uncertainties of return periods of extreme daily precipitation in Germany |
| title_full | Estimates and uncertainties of return periods of extreme daily precipitation in Germany |
| title_fullStr | Estimates and uncertainties of return periods of extreme daily precipitation in Germany |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimates and uncertainties of return periods of extreme daily precipitation in Germany |
| title_short | Estimates and uncertainties of return periods of extreme daily precipitation in Germany |
| title_sort | estimates and uncertainties of return periods of extreme daily precipitation in germany |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2007/0235 |
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