Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models.
Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmissio...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2017-04-01
|
| Series: | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005568 |
| _version_ | 1811218660323229696 |
|---|---|
| author | Erin A Mordecai Jeremy M Cohen Michelle V Evans Prithvi Gudapati Leah R Johnson Catherine A Lippi Kerri Miazgowicz Courtney C Murdock Jason R Rohr Sadie J Ryan Van Savage Marta S Shocket Anna Stewart Ibarra Matthew B Thomas Daniel P Weikel |
| author_facet | Erin A Mordecai Jeremy M Cohen Michelle V Evans Prithvi Gudapati Leah R Johnson Catherine A Lippi Kerri Miazgowicz Courtney C Murdock Jason R Rohr Sadie J Ryan Van Savage Marta S Shocket Anna Stewart Ibarra Matthew B Thomas Daniel P Weikel |
| author_sort | Erin A Mordecai |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18-34°C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26-29°C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T07:13:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c4e055a826b840dda8e8bba1eab01241 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1935-2727 1935-2735 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T07:13:07Z |
| publishDate | 2017-04-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-c4e055a826b840dda8e8bba1eab012412022-12-22T03:42:34ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases1935-27271935-27352017-04-01114e000556810.1371/journal.pntd.0005568Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models.Erin A MordecaiJeremy M CohenMichelle V EvansPrithvi GudapatiLeah R JohnsonCatherine A LippiKerri MiazgowiczCourtney C MurdockJason R RohrSadie J RyanVan SavageMarta S ShocketAnna Stewart IbarraMatthew B ThomasDaniel P WeikelRecent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18-34°C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26-29°C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005568 |
| spellingShingle | Erin A Mordecai Jeremy M Cohen Michelle V Evans Prithvi Gudapati Leah R Johnson Catherine A Lippi Kerri Miazgowicz Courtney C Murdock Jason R Rohr Sadie J Ryan Van Savage Marta S Shocket Anna Stewart Ibarra Matthew B Thomas Daniel P Weikel Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| title | Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models. |
| title_full | Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models. |
| title_fullStr | Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models. |
| title_short | Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models. |
| title_sort | detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of zika dengue and chikungunya using mechanistic models |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005568 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT erinamordecai detectingtheimpactoftemperatureontransmissionofzikadengueandchikungunyausingmechanisticmodels AT jeremymcohen detectingtheimpactoftemperatureontransmissionofzikadengueandchikungunyausingmechanisticmodels AT michellevevans detectingtheimpactoftemperatureontransmissionofzikadengueandchikungunyausingmechanisticmodels AT prithvigudapati detectingtheimpactoftemperatureontransmissionofzikadengueandchikungunyausingmechanisticmodels AT leahrjohnson detectingtheimpactoftemperatureontransmissionofzikadengueandchikungunyausingmechanisticmodels AT catherinealippi detectingtheimpactoftemperatureontransmissionofzikadengueandchikungunyausingmechanisticmodels AT kerrimiazgowicz detectingtheimpactoftemperatureontransmissionofzikadengueandchikungunyausingmechanisticmodels AT courtneycmurdock detectingtheimpactoftemperatureontransmissionofzikadengueandchikungunyausingmechanisticmodels AT jasonrrohr detectingtheimpactoftemperatureontransmissionofzikadengueandchikungunyausingmechanisticmodels AT sadiejryan detectingtheimpactoftemperatureontransmissionofzikadengueandchikungunyausingmechanisticmodels AT vansavage detectingtheimpactoftemperatureontransmissionofzikadengueandchikungunyausingmechanisticmodels AT martasshocket detectingtheimpactoftemperatureontransmissionofzikadengueandchikungunyausingmechanisticmodels AT annastewartibarra detectingtheimpactoftemperatureontransmissionofzikadengueandchikungunyausingmechanisticmodels AT matthewbthomas detectingtheimpactoftemperatureontransmissionofzikadengueandchikungunyausingmechanisticmodels AT danielpweikel detectingtheimpactoftemperatureontransmissionofzikadengueandchikungunyausingmechanisticmodels |