Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic
Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure (dams, bridges, road...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2017-05-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/2559/2017/hess-21-2559-2017.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811239491877208064 |
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| author | E. Shevnina E. Kourzeneva V. Kovalenko T. Vihma |
| author_facet | E. Shevnina E. Kourzeneva V. Kovalenko T. Vihma |
| author_sort | E. Shevnina |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower
latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major
challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the
long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure
(dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of the
frequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events. To estimate the cost of
the infrastructure and operational risk, a probabilistic form of long-term
forecasting is preferable. In this study, a probabilistic model to simulate
the parameters of the probability density function (PDF) for multi-year
runoff based on a projected climatology is applied to evaluate changes in
extreme floods for the territory of the Russian Arctic. The model is
validated by cross-comparison of the modelled and empirical PDFs using
observations from 23 sites located in northern Russia. The mean values and
coefficients of variation (CVs) of the spring flood depth of runoff are evaluated
under four climate scenarios, using simulations of six climate models for the
period 2010–2039. Regions with substantial expected changes in the means and
CVs of spring flood depth of runoff are outlined. For the sites located within such
regions, it is suggested to account for the future climate change in
calculating the maximal discharges of rare occurrence. An example of
engineering calculations for maximal discharges with 1 % exceedance
probability is provided for the Nadym River at Nadym. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T13:00:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c4e6c83e45d44234b3a0bf647b647207 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T13:00:37Z |
| publishDate | 2017-05-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-c4e6c83e45d44234b3a0bf647b6472072022-12-22T03:32:10ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382017-05-012152559257810.5194/hess-21-2559-2017Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian ArcticE. Shevnina0E. Kourzeneva1V. Kovalenko2T. Vihma3Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 0010 Helsinki, FinlandFinnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 0010 Helsinki, FinlandRussian State Hydrometeorological University, Malookhtinsky prospect 98, 195196 Saint Petersburg, RussiaFinnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 0010 Helsinki, FinlandClimate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure (dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events. To estimate the cost of the infrastructure and operational risk, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. In this study, a probabilistic model to simulate the parameters of the probability density function (PDF) for multi-year runoff based on a projected climatology is applied to evaluate changes in extreme floods for the territory of the Russian Arctic. The model is validated by cross-comparison of the modelled and empirical PDFs using observations from 23 sites located in northern Russia. The mean values and coefficients of variation (CVs) of the spring flood depth of runoff are evaluated under four climate scenarios, using simulations of six climate models for the period 2010–2039. Regions with substantial expected changes in the means and CVs of spring flood depth of runoff are outlined. For the sites located within such regions, it is suggested to account for the future climate change in calculating the maximal discharges of rare occurrence. An example of engineering calculations for maximal discharges with 1 % exceedance probability is provided for the Nadym River at Nadym.http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/2559/2017/hess-21-2559-2017.pdf |
| spellingShingle | E. Shevnina E. Kourzeneva V. Kovalenko T. Vihma Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic |
| title_full | Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic |
| title_short | Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic |
| title_sort | assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long term planning of socio economic infrastructure in the russian arctic |
| url | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/2559/2017/hess-21-2559-2017.pdf |
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