Analysis and Forecasting Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions, and Projected Mortality Attributable to COVID-19 in Portugal, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France: Predictions for 4 Weeks Ahead
The use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is a great contribution to medical studies since the application of forecasting concepts allows for the analysis of future diseases propagation. In this context, this paper presents a study of the new coronavirus SARS-COV-2 with a focus on verifying the v...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-06-01
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| Series: | Bioengineering |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5354/8/6/84 |
| _version_ | 1797530552958451712 |
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| author | Kathleen Carvalho João Paulo Vicente Mihajlo Jakovljevic João Paulo Ramos Teixeira |
| author_facet | Kathleen Carvalho João Paulo Vicente Mihajlo Jakovljevic João Paulo Ramos Teixeira |
| author_sort | Kathleen Carvalho |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is a great contribution to medical studies since the application of forecasting concepts allows for the analysis of future diseases propagation. In this context, this paper presents a study of the new coronavirus SARS-COV-2 with a focus on verifying the virus propagation associated with mitigation procedures and massive vaccination campaigns. There were two proposed methodologies in making predictions 28 days ahead for the number of new cases, deaths, and ICU patients of five European countries: Portugal, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Germany. A case study of the results of massive immunization in Israel was also considered. The data input of cases, deaths, and daily ICU patients was normalized to reduce discrepant numbers due to the countries’ size and the cumulative vaccination values by the percentage of population immunized (with at least one dose of the vaccine). As a comparative criterion, the calculation of the mean absolute error (MAE) of all predictions presents the best methodology, targeting other possibilities of use for the method proposed. The best architecture achieved a general MAE for the 1-to-28-day ahead forecast, which is lower than 30 cases, 0.6 deaths, and 2.5 ICU patients per million people. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T10:30:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c534fc3f6eb84d1197a8e8990fe21690 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2306-5354 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T10:30:37Z |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Bioengineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-c534fc3f6eb84d1197a8e8990fe216902023-11-21T23:41:36ZengMDPI AGBioengineering2306-53542021-06-01868410.3390/bioengineering8060084Analysis and Forecasting Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions, and Projected Mortality Attributable to COVID-19 in Portugal, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France: Predictions for 4 Weeks AheadKathleen Carvalho0João Paulo Vicente1Mihajlo Jakovljevic2João Paulo Ramos Teixeira3Research Centre in Digitalization and Intelligent Robotics (CeDRI)—Instituto Politecnico de Braganca, 5300-253 Bragança, PortugalResearch Centre in Digitalization and Intelligent Robotics (CeDRI)—Instituto Politecnico de Braganca, 5300-253 Bragança, PortugalDepartment of Global Health Economics and Policy, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac, 34000 Kragujevac, SerbiaResearch Centre in Digitalization and Intelligent Robotics (CeDRI)—Instituto Politecnico de Braganca, 5300-253 Bragança, PortugalThe use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is a great contribution to medical studies since the application of forecasting concepts allows for the analysis of future diseases propagation. In this context, this paper presents a study of the new coronavirus SARS-COV-2 with a focus on verifying the virus propagation associated with mitigation procedures and massive vaccination campaigns. There were two proposed methodologies in making predictions 28 days ahead for the number of new cases, deaths, and ICU patients of five European countries: Portugal, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Germany. A case study of the results of massive immunization in Israel was also considered. The data input of cases, deaths, and daily ICU patients was normalized to reduce discrepant numbers due to the countries’ size and the cumulative vaccination values by the percentage of population immunized (with at least one dose of the vaccine). As a comparative criterion, the calculation of the mean absolute error (MAE) of all predictions presents the best methodology, targeting other possibilities of use for the method proposed. The best architecture achieved a general MAE for the 1-to-28-day ahead forecast, which is lower than 30 cases, 0.6 deaths, and 2.5 ICU patients per million people.https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5354/8/6/84time series predictionANN forecastingnew coronavirusCOVID-19 prediction casesCOVID-19 prediction deathsCOVID-19 prediction ICU |
| spellingShingle | Kathleen Carvalho João Paulo Vicente Mihajlo Jakovljevic João Paulo Ramos Teixeira Analysis and Forecasting Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions, and Projected Mortality Attributable to COVID-19 in Portugal, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France: Predictions for 4 Weeks Ahead Bioengineering time series prediction ANN forecasting new coronavirus COVID-19 prediction cases COVID-19 prediction deaths COVID-19 prediction ICU |
| title | Analysis and Forecasting Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions, and Projected Mortality Attributable to COVID-19 in Portugal, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France: Predictions for 4 Weeks Ahead |
| title_full | Analysis and Forecasting Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions, and Projected Mortality Attributable to COVID-19 in Portugal, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France: Predictions for 4 Weeks Ahead |
| title_fullStr | Analysis and Forecasting Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions, and Projected Mortality Attributable to COVID-19 in Portugal, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France: Predictions for 4 Weeks Ahead |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis and Forecasting Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions, and Projected Mortality Attributable to COVID-19 in Portugal, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France: Predictions for 4 Weeks Ahead |
| title_short | Analysis and Forecasting Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions, and Projected Mortality Attributable to COVID-19 in Portugal, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France: Predictions for 4 Weeks Ahead |
| title_sort | analysis and forecasting incidence intensive care unit admissions and projected mortality attributable to covid 19 in portugal the uk germany italy and france predictions for 4 weeks ahead |
| topic | time series prediction ANN forecasting new coronavirus COVID-19 prediction cases COVID-19 prediction deaths COVID-19 prediction ICU |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5354/8/6/84 |
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