The Dynamic Effective Reproductive Number of COVID-19 during the Epidemic in Iran
Background: We aimed to determine the generation time, the best model for estimating reproduction number (R), and to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) and effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 in Iran. Methods: We used the daily incidence cases of COVID-19, hospitalized due t...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Tehran University of Medical Sciences
2022-04-01
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| Series: | Iranian Journal of Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://ijph.tums.ac.ir/index.php/ijph/article/view/27033 |
| _version_ | 1828331456768770048 |
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| author | Amin Doosti-Irani Saiedeh Haji-Maghsoudi Aliakbar Haghdoost Sana Eybpoosh Ehsan Mostafavi Manoochehr Karami Hossein Mahjub |
| author_facet | Amin Doosti-Irani Saiedeh Haji-Maghsoudi Aliakbar Haghdoost Sana Eybpoosh Ehsan Mostafavi Manoochehr Karami Hossein Mahjub |
| author_sort | Amin Doosti-Irani |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
Background: We aimed to determine the generation time, the best model for estimating reproduction number (R), and to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) and effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 in Iran.
Methods: We used the daily incidence cases of COVID-19, hospitalized due to a probable diagnosis of COVID-19 from 19 February 2020 to 17 November 2020 in Iran. Four models, including maximum likelihood (ML), exponential growth (EG), time-dependent (TD), sequential Bayesian (SB) were evaluated. The weekly reproduction number with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated.
Results: TD model shows the best fit compared to other models for estimating reproduction number in Iran. The R0 in Iran in the first week of the epidemic, leading up to 21 February 2020 was 7.19, 95% CI: 5.56, 9.00. The lowest value for the Rt was equal to 0.77 between 3 to 10 March 2020 and 4 to 11 December 2020. From 11 June 2020 up to13 August 2020, the Rt was more than one but after then to 24 September 2021 was less than one.
Conclusion: TD model was the best fit for estimating the R in Iran. The worst situation of the epidemic in Iran was related to the weeks leading up to 26 February 2020 and 28 October 2020, and better status was related to the weeks leading up to 10 March 2020 and 11 December 2020.
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| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T20:52:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c53a247b6eab4a00aa057b0929a0898e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2251-6085 2251-6093 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T20:52:07Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | Tehran University of Medical Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Iranian Journal of Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-c53a247b6eab4a00aa057b0929a0898e2022-12-22T02:30:27ZengTehran University of Medical SciencesIranian Journal of Public Health2251-60852251-60932022-04-0151410.18502/ijph.v51i4.9250The Dynamic Effective Reproductive Number of COVID-19 during the Epidemic in IranAmin Doosti-Irani0Saiedeh Haji-Maghsoudi1Aliakbar Haghdoost2Sana Eybpoosh3Ehsan Mostafavi4Manoochehr Karami5Hossein Mahjub6Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Research Center for Health Sciences, Hamadan IranDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, IranDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, IranResearch Centre for Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases, Pasteur Institute of Iran, Tehran, IranResearch Centre for Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases, Pasteur Institute of Iran, Tehran, IranDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Research Center for Health Sciences, Hamadan University of Medical Scienc-es, Hamadan, Iran Background: We aimed to determine the generation time, the best model for estimating reproduction number (R), and to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) and effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 in Iran. Methods: We used the daily incidence cases of COVID-19, hospitalized due to a probable diagnosis of COVID-19 from 19 February 2020 to 17 November 2020 in Iran. Four models, including maximum likelihood (ML), exponential growth (EG), time-dependent (TD), sequential Bayesian (SB) were evaluated. The weekly reproduction number with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated. Results: TD model shows the best fit compared to other models for estimating reproduction number in Iran. The R0 in Iran in the first week of the epidemic, leading up to 21 February 2020 was 7.19, 95% CI: 5.56, 9.00. The lowest value for the Rt was equal to 0.77 between 3 to 10 March 2020 and 4 to 11 December 2020. From 11 June 2020 up to13 August 2020, the Rt was more than one but after then to 24 September 2021 was less than one. Conclusion: TD model was the best fit for estimating the R in Iran. The worst situation of the epidemic in Iran was related to the weeks leading up to 26 February 2020 and 28 October 2020, and better status was related to the weeks leading up to 10 March 2020 and 11 December 2020. https://ijph.tums.ac.ir/index.php/ijph/article/view/27033COVID-19Basic reproduction numberEffective reproduction numberIran |
| spellingShingle | Amin Doosti-Irani Saiedeh Haji-Maghsoudi Aliakbar Haghdoost Sana Eybpoosh Ehsan Mostafavi Manoochehr Karami Hossein Mahjub The Dynamic Effective Reproductive Number of COVID-19 during the Epidemic in Iran Iranian Journal of Public Health COVID-19 Basic reproduction number Effective reproduction number Iran |
| title | The Dynamic Effective Reproductive Number of COVID-19 during the Epidemic in Iran |
| title_full | The Dynamic Effective Reproductive Number of COVID-19 during the Epidemic in Iran |
| title_fullStr | The Dynamic Effective Reproductive Number of COVID-19 during the Epidemic in Iran |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Dynamic Effective Reproductive Number of COVID-19 during the Epidemic in Iran |
| title_short | The Dynamic Effective Reproductive Number of COVID-19 during the Epidemic in Iran |
| title_sort | dynamic effective reproductive number of covid 19 during the epidemic in iran |
| topic | COVID-19 Basic reproduction number Effective reproduction number Iran |
| url | https://ijph.tums.ac.ir/index.php/ijph/article/view/27033 |
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