Climate change and alpine-adapted insects: modelling environmental envelopes of a grasshopper radiation
Mountains create steep environmental gradients that are sensitive barometers of climate change. We calibrated 10 statistical models to formulate ensemble ecological niche models for 12 predominantly alpine, flightless grasshopper species in Aotearoa New Zealand, using their current distributions and...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
The Royal Society
2022-03-01
|
| Series: | Royal Society Open Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.211596 |
| _version_ | 1827957974866329600 |
|---|---|
| author | Emily M. Koot Mary Morgan-Richards Steven A. Trewick |
| author_facet | Emily M. Koot Mary Morgan-Richards Steven A. Trewick |
| author_sort | Emily M. Koot |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Mountains create steep environmental gradients that are sensitive barometers of climate change. We calibrated 10 statistical models to formulate ensemble ecological niche models for 12 predominantly alpine, flightless grasshopper species in Aotearoa New Zealand, using their current distributions and current conditions. Niche models were then projected for two future global climate scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 (1.0°C rise) and RCP8.5 (3.7°C rise). Results were species specific, with two-thirds of our models suggesting a reduction in potential range for nine species by 2070, but surprisingly, for six species, we predict an increase in potential suitable habitat under mild (+1.0°C) or severe global warming (+3.7°C). However, when the limited dispersal ability of these flightless grasshoppers is taken into account, all 12 species studied are predicted to suffer extreme reductions in range, with a quarter likely to go extinct due to a 96–100% reduction in suitable habitat. Habitat loss is associated with habitat fragmentation that is likely to escalate stochastic vulnerability of remaining populations. Here, we present the predicted outcomes for an endemic radiation of alpine taxa as an exemplar of the challenges that alpine species, both in New Zealand and internationally, are subject to by anthropogenic climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T15:28:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c558bac917ba48fe832f02fb9df8b5ff |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2054-5703 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T15:28:21Z |
| publishDate | 2022-03-01 |
| publisher | The Royal Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Royal Society Open Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-c558bac917ba48fe832f02fb9df8b5ff2023-04-28T11:04:58ZengThe Royal SocietyRoyal Society Open Science2054-57032022-03-019310.1098/rsos.211596Climate change and alpine-adapted insects: modelling environmental envelopes of a grasshopper radiationEmily M. Koot0Mary Morgan-Richards1Steven A. Trewick2Wildlife and Ecology Group, Massey University, Palmerston North, New ZealandWildlife and Ecology Group, Massey University, Palmerston North, New ZealandWildlife and Ecology Group, Massey University, Palmerston North, New ZealandMountains create steep environmental gradients that are sensitive barometers of climate change. We calibrated 10 statistical models to formulate ensemble ecological niche models for 12 predominantly alpine, flightless grasshopper species in Aotearoa New Zealand, using their current distributions and current conditions. Niche models were then projected for two future global climate scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 (1.0°C rise) and RCP8.5 (3.7°C rise). Results were species specific, with two-thirds of our models suggesting a reduction in potential range for nine species by 2070, but surprisingly, for six species, we predict an increase in potential suitable habitat under mild (+1.0°C) or severe global warming (+3.7°C). However, when the limited dispersal ability of these flightless grasshoppers is taken into account, all 12 species studied are predicted to suffer extreme reductions in range, with a quarter likely to go extinct due to a 96–100% reduction in suitable habitat. Habitat loss is associated with habitat fragmentation that is likely to escalate stochastic vulnerability of remaining populations. Here, we present the predicted outcomes for an endemic radiation of alpine taxa as an exemplar of the challenges that alpine species, both in New Zealand and internationally, are subject to by anthropogenic climate change.https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.211596alpineclimate changeecological niche modellingensemble modellingbiomod2fragmentation |
| spellingShingle | Emily M. Koot Mary Morgan-Richards Steven A. Trewick Climate change and alpine-adapted insects: modelling environmental envelopes of a grasshopper radiation Royal Society Open Science alpine climate change ecological niche modelling ensemble modelling biomod2 fragmentation |
| title | Climate change and alpine-adapted insects: modelling environmental envelopes of a grasshopper radiation |
| title_full | Climate change and alpine-adapted insects: modelling environmental envelopes of a grasshopper radiation |
| title_fullStr | Climate change and alpine-adapted insects: modelling environmental envelopes of a grasshopper radiation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change and alpine-adapted insects: modelling environmental envelopes of a grasshopper radiation |
| title_short | Climate change and alpine-adapted insects: modelling environmental envelopes of a grasshopper radiation |
| title_sort | climate change and alpine adapted insects modelling environmental envelopes of a grasshopper radiation |
| topic | alpine climate change ecological niche modelling ensemble modelling biomod2 fragmentation |
| url | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.211596 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT emilymkoot climatechangeandalpineadaptedinsectsmodellingenvironmentalenvelopesofagrasshopperradiation AT marymorganrichards climatechangeandalpineadaptedinsectsmodellingenvironmentalenvelopesofagrasshopperradiation AT stevenatrewick climatechangeandalpineadaptedinsectsmodellingenvironmentalenvelopesofagrasshopperradiation |