Epidemiological Model With Anomalous Kinetics: Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic
We generalize the phenomenological, law of mass action-like, SIR and SEIR epidemiological models to situations with anomalous kinetics. Specifically, the contagion and removal terms, normally linear in the fraction I of infected people, are taken to depend on I qup and I qdown, respectively. These d...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2020-12-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Physics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphy.2020.613168/full |
| _version_ | 1831545319650754560 |
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| author | Ugur Tirnakli Constantino Tsallis Constantino Tsallis Constantino Tsallis |
| author_facet | Ugur Tirnakli Constantino Tsallis Constantino Tsallis Constantino Tsallis |
| author_sort | Ugur Tirnakli |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We generalize the phenomenological, law of mass action-like, SIR and SEIR epidemiological models to situations with anomalous kinetics. Specifically, the contagion and removal terms, normally linear in the fraction I of infected people, are taken to depend on I qup and I qdown, respectively. These dependencies can be understood as highly reduced effective descriptions of contagion via anomalous diffusion of susceptible and infected people in fractal geometries and removal (i.e., recovery or death) via complex mechanisms leading to slowly decaying removal-time distributions. We obtain rather convincing fits to time series for both active cases and mortality with the same values of (qup,qdown) for a given country, suggesting that such aspects may in fact be present in the early evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also obtain approximate values for the effective population Neff, which turns out to be a small percentage of the entire population N for each country. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T01:25:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c58ce3d9b85e42b1a29d1e2e4bc1c4d6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-424X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T01:25:17Z |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-c58ce3d9b85e42b1a29d1e2e4bc1c4d62022-12-21T22:08:42ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Physics2296-424X2020-12-01810.3389/fphy.2020.613168613168Epidemiological Model With Anomalous Kinetics: Early Stages of the COVID-19 PandemicUgur Tirnakli0Constantino Tsallis1Constantino Tsallis2Constantino Tsallis3Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Ege University, Izmir, TurkeyCentro Brasileiro de Pesquisas Fisicas and National Institute of Science and Technology for Complex Systems, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilSanta Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, United StatesComplexity Science Hub Vienna, Vienna, AustriaWe generalize the phenomenological, law of mass action-like, SIR and SEIR epidemiological models to situations with anomalous kinetics. Specifically, the contagion and removal terms, normally linear in the fraction I of infected people, are taken to depend on I qup and I qdown, respectively. These dependencies can be understood as highly reduced effective descriptions of contagion via anomalous diffusion of susceptible and infected people in fractal geometries and removal (i.e., recovery or death) via complex mechanisms leading to slowly decaying removal-time distributions. We obtain rather convincing fits to time series for both active cases and mortality with the same values of (qup,qdown) for a given country, suggesting that such aspects may in fact be present in the early evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also obtain approximate values for the effective population Neff, which turns out to be a small percentage of the entire population N for each country.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphy.2020.613168/fullCOVID-19pandemicscomplex systemsnonextensive statistical mechanicsepidemiological models |
| spellingShingle | Ugur Tirnakli Constantino Tsallis Constantino Tsallis Constantino Tsallis Epidemiological Model With Anomalous Kinetics: Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic Frontiers in Physics COVID-19 pandemics complex systems nonextensive statistical mechanics epidemiological models |
| title | Epidemiological Model With Anomalous Kinetics: Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic |
| title_full | Epidemiological Model With Anomalous Kinetics: Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic |
| title_fullStr | Epidemiological Model With Anomalous Kinetics: Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic |
| title_full_unstemmed | Epidemiological Model With Anomalous Kinetics: Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic |
| title_short | Epidemiological Model With Anomalous Kinetics: Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic |
| title_sort | epidemiological model with anomalous kinetics early stages of the covid 19 pandemic |
| topic | COVID-19 pandemics complex systems nonextensive statistical mechanics epidemiological models |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphy.2020.613168/full |
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