Vaccination strategies impact the probability of outbreak extinction: A case study of COVID-19 transmission
Mass vaccination has proven to be an effective control measure for mitigating the transmission of infectious diseases. Throughout history, various vaccination strategies have been employed to control infections and terminate outbreaks. In this study, we utilized the transmission of COVID-19 as a cas...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Heliyon |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844024040738 |
| _version_ | 1797224155194589184 |
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| author | Natcha C. Jitsuk Sudarat Chadsuthi Charin Modchang |
| author_facet | Natcha C. Jitsuk Sudarat Chadsuthi Charin Modchang |
| author_sort | Natcha C. Jitsuk |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Mass vaccination has proven to be an effective control measure for mitigating the transmission of infectious diseases. Throughout history, various vaccination strategies have been employed to control infections and terminate outbreaks. In this study, we utilized the transmission of COVID-19 as a case study and constructed a stochastic age-structured compartmental model to investigate the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. Our analysis focused on estimating the outbreak extinction probability under different vaccination scenarios in both homogeneous and heterogeneous populations. Notably, we found that population heterogeneity can enhance the likelihood of outbreak extinction at varying levels of vaccine coverage. Prioritizing vaccinations for individuals with higher infection risk was found to maximize outbreak extinction probability and reduce overall infections, while allocating vaccines to those with higher mortality risk has been proven more effective in reducing deaths. Moreover, our study highlighted the significance of booster doses as the vaccine effectiveness wanes over time, showing that they can significantly enhance the extinction probability and mitigate disease transmission. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T13:48:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c5a648ed8cc74f0b814a5f2afc0d6798 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8440 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T13:48:37Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Heliyon |
| spelling | doaj.art-c5a648ed8cc74f0b814a5f2afc0d67982024-04-04T05:06:41ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402024-03-01106e28042Vaccination strategies impact the probability of outbreak extinction: A case study of COVID-19 transmissionNatcha C. Jitsuk0Sudarat Chadsuthi1Charin Modchang2Biophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand; Center for Disease Modeling, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok, 10400, ThailandCenter for Disease Modeling, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand; Department of Physics, Research Center for Academic Excellence in Applied Physics, Faculty of Science, Naresuan University, Phitsanulok, 65000, ThailandBiophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand; Center for Disease Modeling, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand; Centre of Excellence in Mathematics, MHESI, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand; Thailand Center of Excellence in Physics, Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation, 328 Si Ayutthaya Road, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand; Corresponding author. Biophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand.Mass vaccination has proven to be an effective control measure for mitigating the transmission of infectious diseases. Throughout history, various vaccination strategies have been employed to control infections and terminate outbreaks. In this study, we utilized the transmission of COVID-19 as a case study and constructed a stochastic age-structured compartmental model to investigate the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. Our analysis focused on estimating the outbreak extinction probability under different vaccination scenarios in both homogeneous and heterogeneous populations. Notably, we found that population heterogeneity can enhance the likelihood of outbreak extinction at varying levels of vaccine coverage. Prioritizing vaccinations for individuals with higher infection risk was found to maximize outbreak extinction probability and reduce overall infections, while allocating vaccines to those with higher mortality risk has been proven more effective in reducing deaths. Moreover, our study highlighted the significance of booster doses as the vaccine effectiveness wanes over time, showing that they can significantly enhance the extinction probability and mitigate disease transmission.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844024040738Extinction probabilityPopulation heterogeneityVaccination strategies |
| spellingShingle | Natcha C. Jitsuk Sudarat Chadsuthi Charin Modchang Vaccination strategies impact the probability of outbreak extinction: A case study of COVID-19 transmission Heliyon Extinction probability Population heterogeneity Vaccination strategies |
| title | Vaccination strategies impact the probability of outbreak extinction: A case study of COVID-19 transmission |
| title_full | Vaccination strategies impact the probability of outbreak extinction: A case study of COVID-19 transmission |
| title_fullStr | Vaccination strategies impact the probability of outbreak extinction: A case study of COVID-19 transmission |
| title_full_unstemmed | Vaccination strategies impact the probability of outbreak extinction: A case study of COVID-19 transmission |
| title_short | Vaccination strategies impact the probability of outbreak extinction: A case study of COVID-19 transmission |
| title_sort | vaccination strategies impact the probability of outbreak extinction a case study of covid 19 transmission |
| topic | Extinction probability Population heterogeneity Vaccination strategies |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844024040738 |
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