The Scenarios of Social Policy Development in the Czech Republic
The main objective of this paper is to create scenarios of possible development of social policy in the Czech Republic and evaluate the probability of each scenario. Based on the literature review and scenario method, three scenarios are created (scenario of a positive development, scenario of a neg...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Mendel University Press
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://acta.mendelu.cz/63/5/1749/ |
| _version_ | 1819062479646359552 |
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| author | Veronika Svatošová Josef Smolík |
| author_facet | Veronika Svatošová Josef Smolík |
| author_sort | Veronika Svatošová |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The main objective of this paper is to create scenarios of possible development of social policy in the Czech Republic and evaluate the probability of each scenario. Based on the literature review and scenario method, three scenarios are created (scenario of a positive development, scenario of a negative development, and explorative scenario), which are compared with the current state of Czech social policy and which evaluate the possible development of Czech social policy in the period up to 2050. For the implementation of scenarios, basic factors that influence the development of Czech social policy are identified. The complementary research methods are creative methods brainstorming and mind mapping, modelling, an intuitive method of estimating trends and decision-making method of scoring. The research shows that the Czech social policy system is threatened without accepting the strategic and conceptual social policy solutions. The probability of the scenario of negative development (critical scenario) of Czech social policy is more than ninety percent. This scenario is based on a deep economic crisis, the collapse of the entire system of social policy and great social unrest. The created scenarios are useful for actors of social policy which can reverse the negative development of Czech social policy. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T14:59:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c5abafe640b4407c843a28a1b559cd37 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1211-8516 2464-8310 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T14:59:26Z |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | Mendel University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis |
| spelling | doaj.art-c5abafe640b4407c843a28a1b559cd372022-12-21T18:59:37ZengMendel University PressActa Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis1211-85162464-83102015-01-016351749176710.11118/actaun201563051749The Scenarios of Social Policy Development in the Czech RepublicVeronika Svatošová0Josef Smolík1Faculty of Regional Development and International Studies, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech RepublicFaculty of Regional Development and International Studies, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech RepublicThe main objective of this paper is to create scenarios of possible development of social policy in the Czech Republic and evaluate the probability of each scenario. Based on the literature review and scenario method, three scenarios are created (scenario of a positive development, scenario of a negative development, and explorative scenario), which are compared with the current state of Czech social policy and which evaluate the possible development of Czech social policy in the period up to 2050. For the implementation of scenarios, basic factors that influence the development of Czech social policy are identified. The complementary research methods are creative methods brainstorming and mind mapping, modelling, an intuitive method of estimating trends and decision-making method of scoring. The research shows that the Czech social policy system is threatened without accepting the strategic and conceptual social policy solutions. The probability of the scenario of negative development (critical scenario) of Czech social policy is more than ninety percent. This scenario is based on a deep economic crisis, the collapse of the entire system of social policy and great social unrest. The created scenarios are useful for actors of social policy which can reverse the negative development of Czech social policy.https://acta.mendelu.cz/63/5/1749/social policyscenario methodsocial policy modelmethod of scoringintuitive method of estimate trendsexplorative scenario |
| spellingShingle | Veronika Svatošová Josef Smolík The Scenarios of Social Policy Development in the Czech Republic Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis social policy scenario method social policy model method of scoring intuitive method of estimate trends explorative scenario |
| title | The Scenarios of Social Policy Development in the Czech Republic |
| title_full | The Scenarios of Social Policy Development in the Czech Republic |
| title_fullStr | The Scenarios of Social Policy Development in the Czech Republic |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Scenarios of Social Policy Development in the Czech Republic |
| title_short | The Scenarios of Social Policy Development in the Czech Republic |
| title_sort | scenarios of social policy development in the czech republic |
| topic | social policy scenario method social policy model method of scoring intuitive method of estimate trends explorative scenario |
| url | https://acta.mendelu.cz/63/5/1749/ |
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