Protected areas’ effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range
Background Climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, pushing species to shift their distribution ranges and making existing protected areas inadequate. Estimating species distribution and potential modifications under climate change are then necessary for adjusting conservation...
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PeerJ Inc.
2018-07-01
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| Online Access: | https://peerj.com/articles/5222.pdf |
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| author | Carlos Riquelme Sergio A. Estay Rodrigo López Hernán Pastore Mauricio Soto-Gamboa Paulo Corti |
| author_facet | Carlos Riquelme Sergio A. Estay Rodrigo López Hernán Pastore Mauricio Soto-Gamboa Paulo Corti |
| author_sort | Carlos Riquelme |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background Climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, pushing species to shift their distribution ranges and making existing protected areas inadequate. Estimating species distribution and potential modifications under climate change are then necessary for adjusting conservation and management plans; this is especially true for endangered species. An example of this issue is the huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus), an endemic endangered deer from the southern Andes Range, with less than 2,000 individuals. It is distributed in fragmented populations along a 2,000 km latitudinal gradient, in Chile and Argentina. Several threats have reduced its distribution to <50% of its former range. Methods To estimate its potential distribution and protected areas effectiveness, we constructed a species distribution model using 2,813 huemul presence points throughout its whole distribution range, together with 19 bioclimatic layers and altitude information from Worldclim. Its current distribution was projected for years 2050 and 2070 using five different Global Climate Models estimated for scenarios representing two carbon Representative Concentration Routes (RCP)—RCP4.5 and RCP6.0. Results Based on current huemul habitat variables, we estimated 91,617 km2 of suitable habitat. In future scenarios of climate change, there was a loss of suitable habitat due to altitudinal and latitudinal variation. Future projections showed a decrease of 59.86–60.26% for the year 2050 and 58.57–64.34% for the year 2070 according to RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, respectively. Protected areas only covered only 36.18% of the present distribution, 38.57–34.94% for the year 2050 and 30.79–31.94% for 2070 under climate change scenarios. Discussion Modeling current and future huemul distributions should allow the establishment of priority conservation areas in which to focus efforts and funds, especially areas without official protection. In this way, we can improve management in areas heavily affected by climate change to help ensure the persistence of this deer and other species under similar circumstances worldwide. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T06:35:33Z |
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| id | doaj.art-c5c3923f477c4ed3b623372316536f7e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2167-8359 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T06:35:33Z |
| publishDate | 2018-07-01 |
| publisher | PeerJ Inc. |
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| spelling | doaj.art-c5c3923f477c4ed3b623372316536f7e2023-12-03T11:00:03ZengPeerJ Inc.PeerJ2167-83592018-07-016e522210.7717/peerj.5222Protected areas’ effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes RangeCarlos Riquelme0Sergio A. Estay1Rodrigo López2Hernán Pastore3Mauricio Soto-Gamboa4Paulo Corti5Programa de Magíster en Ecología Aplicada, Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, ChileInstituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, ChileAumen ONG, Coyhaique, ChileDirección Regional Patagonia Norte, Administración de Parques Nacionales, San Carlos de Bariloche, ArgentinaInstituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, ChileLaboratorio de Manejo y Conservación de Vida Silvestre, Instituto de Ciencia Animal y Programa de Investigación Aplicada en Fauna Silvestre, Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, ChileBackground Climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, pushing species to shift their distribution ranges and making existing protected areas inadequate. Estimating species distribution and potential modifications under climate change are then necessary for adjusting conservation and management plans; this is especially true for endangered species. An example of this issue is the huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus), an endemic endangered deer from the southern Andes Range, with less than 2,000 individuals. It is distributed in fragmented populations along a 2,000 km latitudinal gradient, in Chile and Argentina. Several threats have reduced its distribution to <50% of its former range. Methods To estimate its potential distribution and protected areas effectiveness, we constructed a species distribution model using 2,813 huemul presence points throughout its whole distribution range, together with 19 bioclimatic layers and altitude information from Worldclim. Its current distribution was projected for years 2050 and 2070 using five different Global Climate Models estimated for scenarios representing two carbon Representative Concentration Routes (RCP)—RCP4.5 and RCP6.0. Results Based on current huemul habitat variables, we estimated 91,617 km2 of suitable habitat. In future scenarios of climate change, there was a loss of suitable habitat due to altitudinal and latitudinal variation. Future projections showed a decrease of 59.86–60.26% for the year 2050 and 58.57–64.34% for the year 2070 according to RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, respectively. Protected areas only covered only 36.18% of the present distribution, 38.57–34.94% for the year 2050 and 30.79–31.94% for 2070 under climate change scenarios. Discussion Modeling current and future huemul distributions should allow the establishment of priority conservation areas in which to focus efforts and funds, especially areas without official protection. In this way, we can improve management in areas heavily affected by climate change to help ensure the persistence of this deer and other species under similar circumstances worldwide.https://peerj.com/articles/5222.pdfClimate changeUngulatesProtected areasEndangered speciesSpecies distribution modelsConservation |
| spellingShingle | Carlos Riquelme Sergio A. Estay Rodrigo López Hernán Pastore Mauricio Soto-Gamboa Paulo Corti Protected areas’ effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range PeerJ Climate change Ungulates Protected areas Endangered species Species distribution models Conservation |
| title | Protected areas’ effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range |
| title_full | Protected areas’ effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range |
| title_fullStr | Protected areas’ effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range |
| title_full_unstemmed | Protected areas’ effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range |
| title_short | Protected areas’ effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range |
| title_sort | protected areas effectiveness under climate change a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the andes range |
| topic | Climate change Ungulates Protected areas Endangered species Species distribution models Conservation |
| url | https://peerj.com/articles/5222.pdf |
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