Multidecadal dynamics project slow 21st-century economic growth and income convergence
Abstract Future economic growth will affect societal well-being and the environment, but is uncertain. We describe a multidecadal pattern of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth rising, then declining, as regions become richer. An empirically fitted differential-equation model and an integ...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00874-7 |
| _version_ | 1797795475179438080 |
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| author | Matthew G. Burgess Ryan E. Langendorf Jonathan D. Moyer Ashley Dancer Barry B. Hughes David Tilman |
| author_facet | Matthew G. Burgess Ryan E. Langendorf Jonathan D. Moyer Ashley Dancer Barry B. Hughes David Tilman |
| author_sort | Matthew G. Burgess |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Future economic growth will affect societal well-being and the environment, but is uncertain. We describe a multidecadal pattern of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth rising, then declining, as regions become richer. An empirically fitted differential-equation model and an integrated assessment model—International Futures—accounting for this pattern both predict 21st-century economic outlooks with slow growth and income convergence compared to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, similar to SSP4 (“Inequality”). For World Bank income groups, the differential-equation model could have produced, from 1980, consistent projections of 2100 GDP per capita, and more accurate predictions of 2010s growth rates than the International Monetary Fund’s short-term forecasts. Both forecasts were positively biased for the low-income group. SSP4 might therefore represent a best-case—not worst-case—scenario for 21st-century economic growth and income convergence. International Futures projects high poverty and population growth, and moderate energy demands and carbon dioxide emissions, within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway range. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T03:18:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c5ce2a3239d2490fbacbf912e0508ad8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T03:18:31Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj.art-c5ce2a3239d2490fbacbf912e0508ad82023-06-25T11:30:21ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352023-06-014111010.1038/s43247-023-00874-7Multidecadal dynamics project slow 21st-century economic growth and income convergenceMatthew G. Burgess0Ryan E. Langendorf1Jonathan D. Moyer2Ashley Dancer3Barry B. Hughes4David Tilman5Center for Social and Environmental Futures, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado BoulderCenter for Social and Environmental Futures, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado BoulderFrederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of DenverCenter for Social and Environmental Futures, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado BoulderFrederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of DenverDepartment of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of MinnesotaAbstract Future economic growth will affect societal well-being and the environment, but is uncertain. We describe a multidecadal pattern of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth rising, then declining, as regions become richer. An empirically fitted differential-equation model and an integrated assessment model—International Futures—accounting for this pattern both predict 21st-century economic outlooks with slow growth and income convergence compared to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, similar to SSP4 (“Inequality”). For World Bank income groups, the differential-equation model could have produced, from 1980, consistent projections of 2100 GDP per capita, and more accurate predictions of 2010s growth rates than the International Monetary Fund’s short-term forecasts. Both forecasts were positively biased for the low-income group. SSP4 might therefore represent a best-case—not worst-case—scenario for 21st-century economic growth and income convergence. International Futures projects high poverty and population growth, and moderate energy demands and carbon dioxide emissions, within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway range.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00874-7 |
| spellingShingle | Matthew G. Burgess Ryan E. Langendorf Jonathan D. Moyer Ashley Dancer Barry B. Hughes David Tilman Multidecadal dynamics project slow 21st-century economic growth and income convergence Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Multidecadal dynamics project slow 21st-century economic growth and income convergence |
| title_full | Multidecadal dynamics project slow 21st-century economic growth and income convergence |
| title_fullStr | Multidecadal dynamics project slow 21st-century economic growth and income convergence |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multidecadal dynamics project slow 21st-century economic growth and income convergence |
| title_short | Multidecadal dynamics project slow 21st-century economic growth and income convergence |
| title_sort | multidecadal dynamics project slow 21st century economic growth and income convergence |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00874-7 |
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