Regional wave model climate projections for coastal impact assessments under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario
In the future, shifts in wind storms across the North and Baltic Seas are highly unpredictable, challenging the projection of wave conditions for managing coastal hazards. Moreover, regional sea level rise (SLR), with very large uncertainty, complicates the situation for stakeholders seeking recomme...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-10-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.910088/full |
| _version_ | 1811182149253988352 |
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| author | Jian Su Jens Murawski Jacob W. Nielsen Kristine S. Madsen |
| author_facet | Jian Su Jens Murawski Jacob W. Nielsen Kristine S. Madsen |
| author_sort | Jian Su |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In the future, shifts in wind storms across the North and Baltic Seas are highly unpredictable, challenging the projection of wave conditions for managing coastal hazards. Moreover, regional sea level rise (SLR), with very large uncertainty, complicates the situation for stakeholders seeking recommendations for climate adaptation plans. The purpose of this study is to examine the change of the storm surge and wind wave components of the water level due to climate change in a low tidal range Køge Bay near the entrance of the Baltic Sea. Under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP8.5, we employed a regional climate model (HIRHAM) forced wave model (WAM) and focused on the wave model results during the “storm surge conditions” (exceeding 20 years storm surge events) and “stormy conditions” (exceeding 90th percentile of wave heights). We find that the change in both wave height and period in the future is negligible under “stormy conditions”. Nevertheless, under “storm surge conditions” when considering SLR, the simulated wave height is projected to double in the near future (mid-century) under RCP 8.5, and the wave period may also increase by about 1.5 seconds. This is because some high significant wave height events in the future are associated with the storm surge events when considering SLR. The findings suggest that the combined effects of mean sea level rise, storm surge and waves are likely to increase the risk to a bay with geography and exposure comparable to Køge Bay. As a result, the future plan for climate engineering protection should place a premium on the additional wave energy protection associated with storm surges. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T09:28:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c5e120243046479a80dd723d80be95df |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-7745 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T09:28:20Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Marine Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-c5e120243046479a80dd723d80be95df2022-12-22T04:31:58ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Marine Science2296-77452022-10-01910.3389/fmars.2022.910088910088Regional wave model climate projections for coastal impact assessments under a high greenhouse gas emission scenarioJian SuJens MurawskiJacob W. NielsenKristine S. MadsenIn the future, shifts in wind storms across the North and Baltic Seas are highly unpredictable, challenging the projection of wave conditions for managing coastal hazards. Moreover, regional sea level rise (SLR), with very large uncertainty, complicates the situation for stakeholders seeking recommendations for climate adaptation plans. The purpose of this study is to examine the change of the storm surge and wind wave components of the water level due to climate change in a low tidal range Køge Bay near the entrance of the Baltic Sea. Under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP8.5, we employed a regional climate model (HIRHAM) forced wave model (WAM) and focused on the wave model results during the “storm surge conditions” (exceeding 20 years storm surge events) and “stormy conditions” (exceeding 90th percentile of wave heights). We find that the change in both wave height and period in the future is negligible under “stormy conditions”. Nevertheless, under “storm surge conditions” when considering SLR, the simulated wave height is projected to double in the near future (mid-century) under RCP 8.5, and the wave period may also increase by about 1.5 seconds. This is because some high significant wave height events in the future are associated with the storm surge events when considering SLR. The findings suggest that the combined effects of mean sea level rise, storm surge and waves are likely to increase the risk to a bay with geography and exposure comparable to Køge Bay. As a result, the future plan for climate engineering protection should place a premium on the additional wave energy protection associated with storm surges.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.910088/fullclimate changeWave projectionSignificant wave heightwave periodSea state modellingRisk management |
| spellingShingle | Jian Su Jens Murawski Jacob W. Nielsen Kristine S. Madsen Regional wave model climate projections for coastal impact assessments under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario Frontiers in Marine Science climate change Wave projection Significant wave height wave period Sea state modelling Risk management |
| title | Regional wave model climate projections for coastal impact assessments under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario |
| title_full | Regional wave model climate projections for coastal impact assessments under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario |
| title_fullStr | Regional wave model climate projections for coastal impact assessments under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario |
| title_full_unstemmed | Regional wave model climate projections for coastal impact assessments under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario |
| title_short | Regional wave model climate projections for coastal impact assessments under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario |
| title_sort | regional wave model climate projections for coastal impact assessments under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario |
| topic | climate change Wave projection Significant wave height wave period Sea state modelling Risk management |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.910088/full |
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