A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part I: An overview of impacts on means and extremes
Climate projections are a powerful tool that can help decision makers to timely prepare adaptation policies, which may then be efficiently implemented. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of how climate change may affect Portugal (located in a climate change hotspot) is conducted, providing the...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-04-01
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| Series: | Climate Services |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000122 |
| _version_ | 1797801731661234176 |
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| author | Daniela C.A. Lima Gil Lemos Virgílio A. Bento Miguel Nogueira Pedro M.M. Soares |
| author_facet | Daniela C.A. Lima Gil Lemos Virgílio A. Bento Miguel Nogueira Pedro M.M. Soares |
| author_sort | Daniela C.A. Lima |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate projections are a powerful tool that can help decision makers to timely prepare adaptation policies, which may then be efficiently implemented. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of how climate change may affect Portugal (located in a climate change hotspot) is conducted, providing the foundations to the first National Roadmap for Adaptation 2100. A multi-variable ensemble was built and tested, being the baseline for assessing future projections for three different emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) throughout the 21st century, accounting for the model’s ability to simulate a set of variables. A warmer and drier future climate is projected for the mainland, being more severe in the interior regions. Even for the optimistic RCP2.6 scenario, results indicate increases in temperature between 1 and 2 °C in comparison with the historical period and can surpass 6 °C in some regions for RCP8.5. Extreme hot events will be more frequent and severe, with maximum temperatures above 45 °C being more common throughout the 21st century. A decline in precipitation is expected mostly in summer and intermediate seasons, with losses above 40 % for the end-of-century. However, an intensification of heavy short-term rainfall events is projected to increase in northern regions. A rising of maximum wind gusts is also expected in these regions. Such projections call for an urgent planning and adaptation measures to safeguard critical sectors of the Portuguese society. Finally, the information here produced and examined constitutes a key example of climate services for mitigation and adaptation in Portugal. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:54:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c62766ca647d40e4be3077e778087224 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8807 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:54:57Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Services |
| spelling | doaj.art-c62766ca647d40e4be3077e7780872242023-06-18T05:02:50ZengElsevierClimate Services2405-88072023-04-0130100351A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part I: An overview of impacts on means and extremesDaniela C.A. Lima0Gil Lemos1Virgílio A. Bento2Miguel Nogueira3Pedro M.M. Soares4Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Instituto Dom Luiz, Lisboa, Portugal; Corresponding author at: Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Instituto Dom Luiz, Lisboa, PortugalUniversidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Instituto Dom Luiz, Lisboa, PortugalUniversidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Instituto Dom Luiz, Lisboa, PortugalUniversidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Instituto Dom Luiz, Lisboa, Portugal; Cervest, Canalot Studios, Studio 133, 222 Kensal Road, London W10 5BN, UKUniversidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Instituto Dom Luiz, Lisboa, PortugalClimate projections are a powerful tool that can help decision makers to timely prepare adaptation policies, which may then be efficiently implemented. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of how climate change may affect Portugal (located in a climate change hotspot) is conducted, providing the foundations to the first National Roadmap for Adaptation 2100. A multi-variable ensemble was built and tested, being the baseline for assessing future projections for three different emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) throughout the 21st century, accounting for the model’s ability to simulate a set of variables. A warmer and drier future climate is projected for the mainland, being more severe in the interior regions. Even for the optimistic RCP2.6 scenario, results indicate increases in temperature between 1 and 2 °C in comparison with the historical period and can surpass 6 °C in some regions for RCP8.5. Extreme hot events will be more frequent and severe, with maximum temperatures above 45 °C being more common throughout the 21st century. A decline in precipitation is expected mostly in summer and intermediate seasons, with losses above 40 % for the end-of-century. However, an intensification of heavy short-term rainfall events is projected to increase in northern regions. A rising of maximum wind gusts is also expected in these regions. Such projections call for an urgent planning and adaptation measures to safeguard critical sectors of the Portuguese society. Finally, the information here produced and examined constitutes a key example of climate services for mitigation and adaptation in Portugal.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000122Climate changeMulti-variable ensembleEURO-CORDEXRegional climate modelsClimate means and extremesPortugal |
| spellingShingle | Daniela C.A. Lima Gil Lemos Virgílio A. Bento Miguel Nogueira Pedro M.M. Soares A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part I: An overview of impacts on means and extremes Climate Services Climate change Multi-variable ensemble EURO-CORDEX Regional climate models Climate means and extremes Portugal |
| title | A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part I: An overview of impacts on means and extremes |
| title_full | A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part I: An overview of impacts on means and extremes |
| title_fullStr | A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part I: An overview of impacts on means and extremes |
| title_full_unstemmed | A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part I: An overview of impacts on means and extremes |
| title_short | A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part I: An overview of impacts on means and extremes |
| title_sort | multi variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi scenarios for portugal part i an overview of impacts on means and extremes |
| topic | Climate change Multi-variable ensemble EURO-CORDEX Regional climate models Climate means and extremes Portugal |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000122 |
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