KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change
Abstract This paper presents the methodology for the construction of the KNMI'23 national climate scenarios for the Netherlands. We have developed six scenarios, that cover a substantial part of the uncertainty in CMIP6 projections of future climate change in the region. Different sources of un...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-02-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003983 |
| _version_ | 1797276972746801152 |
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| author | Karin van derWiel Jules Beersma Henk van denBrink Folmer Krikken Frank Selten Camiel Severijns Andreas Sterl Erik vanMeijgaard Thomas Reerink Rob vanDorland |
| author_facet | Karin van derWiel Jules Beersma Henk van denBrink Folmer Krikken Frank Selten Camiel Severijns Andreas Sterl Erik vanMeijgaard Thomas Reerink Rob vanDorland |
| author_sort | Karin van derWiel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This paper presents the methodology for the construction of the KNMI'23 national climate scenarios for the Netherlands. We have developed six scenarios, that cover a substantial part of the uncertainty in CMIP6 projections of future climate change in the region. Different sources of uncertainty are disentangled as much as possible, partly by means of a storyline approach. Uncertainty in future emissions is covered by making scenarios conditional on different SSP scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5). For each SSP scenario and time horizon (2050, 2100, 2150), we determine a global warming level based on the median of the constrained estimates of climate sensitivity from IPCC AR6. The remaining climate model uncertainty of the regional climate response at these warming levels is covered by two storylines, which are designed with a focus on the annual and seasonal mean precipitation response (a dry‐trending and wet‐trending variant for each SSP). This choice was motivated by the importance of future water management to society. For users with specific interests we provide means how to account for the impact of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. Since CMIP6 GCM data do not provide the required spatial detail for impact modeling, we reconstruct the CMIP6 responses by resampling internal variability in a GCM‐RCM initial‐condition ensemble. The resulting climate scenarios form a detailed storyline of plausible future climates in the Netherlands. The data can be used for impact calculations and assessments by stakeholders, and will be used to inform policy making in different sectors of Dutch society. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T15:37:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c673c60877544affbdde267104fd6032 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T15:37:04Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-c673c60877544affbdde267104fd60322024-03-05T11:10:50ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772024-02-01122n/an/a10.1029/2023EF003983KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate ChangeKarin van derWiel0Jules Beersma1Henk van denBrink2Folmer Krikken3Frank Selten4Camiel Severijns5Andreas Sterl6Erik vanMeijgaard7Thomas Reerink8Rob vanDorland9Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) De Bilt The NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) De Bilt The NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) De Bilt The NetherlandsClimateradar Randwijk The NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) De Bilt The NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) De Bilt The NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) De Bilt The NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) De Bilt The NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) De Bilt The NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) De Bilt The NetherlandsAbstract This paper presents the methodology for the construction of the KNMI'23 national climate scenarios for the Netherlands. We have developed six scenarios, that cover a substantial part of the uncertainty in CMIP6 projections of future climate change in the region. Different sources of uncertainty are disentangled as much as possible, partly by means of a storyline approach. Uncertainty in future emissions is covered by making scenarios conditional on different SSP scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5). For each SSP scenario and time horizon (2050, 2100, 2150), we determine a global warming level based on the median of the constrained estimates of climate sensitivity from IPCC AR6. The remaining climate model uncertainty of the regional climate response at these warming levels is covered by two storylines, which are designed with a focus on the annual and seasonal mean precipitation response (a dry‐trending and wet‐trending variant for each SSP). This choice was motivated by the importance of future water management to society. For users with specific interests we provide means how to account for the impact of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. Since CMIP6 GCM data do not provide the required spatial detail for impact modeling, we reconstruct the CMIP6 responses by resampling internal variability in a GCM‐RCM initial‐condition ensemble. The resulting climate scenarios form a detailed storyline of plausible future climates in the Netherlands. The data can be used for impact calculations and assessments by stakeholders, and will be used to inform policy making in different sectors of Dutch society.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003983climate changeclimate scenariosclimate impactsregional changeNetherlandsstorylines |
| spellingShingle | Karin van derWiel Jules Beersma Henk van denBrink Folmer Krikken Frank Selten Camiel Severijns Andreas Sterl Erik vanMeijgaard Thomas Reerink Rob vanDorland KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change Earth's Future climate change climate scenarios climate impacts regional change Netherlands storylines |
| title | KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change |
| title_full | KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change |
| title_fullStr | KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change |
| title_full_unstemmed | KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change |
| title_short | KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change |
| title_sort | knmi 23 climate scenarios for the netherlands storyline scenarios of regional climate change |
| topic | climate change climate scenarios climate impacts regional change Netherlands storylines |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003983 |
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